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- If it takes, it won't: the overpayment on the market mortgage exceeded 10 million rubles
If it takes, it won't: the overpayment on the market mortgage exceeded 10 million rubles
The average mortgage bill rose to a record 4.4 million rubles, according to statistics from the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. The reasons are the rising cost of housing. At the same time, despite high interest rates and tightening by banks, people continue to take out loans for apartments. At the same time, the average loan term is also increasing — it has almost reached a record 26 years. If a person now takes out a mortgage for 4.4 million for such a period at 30%, the overpayment will exceed 10 million rubles. When housing loans will become more affordable — in the Izvestia article.
Mortgage in 2025
In Russia, the average mortgage volume per customer jumped — by April 1, it reached a record 4.4 million rubles, according to statistics from the Central Bank. Only since the beginning of the year, the figure has increased by 10%. The average term of housing loans reached a maximum — 310.7 months, that is, almost 26 years.
If a person gets a mortgage for 4.4 million rubles for such a period with an initial payment of 20% and at 30% per annum (these are the rates for market loans currently offered in the largest banks), the total amount of payments will be 14.6 million rubles, calculated by Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. This means that the client will overpay more than 10 million. This makes housing loans extremely expensive for most families now and limits the range of real estate buyers without government support, the expert emphasized.
The largest banks have confirmed an increase in the average mortgage bill this year. In Sberbank, it has increased by 20% since December 2024, the press service said, referring to data from Domclick. Absolut Bank noted a 10% increase from January to April. The average check there reached 7.2 million in April. He also grew at VTB, but less significantly.
The main reason is the increase in the cost of housing, explained Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank. This is especially noticeable in large cities, added Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. According to him, in recent years, the rise in real estate prices has accelerated due to high inflation of building materials amid sanctions.
And also because there used to be a shortage of high-quality housing in the premium segment — now the market is "catching up" with demand, and the average bill is growing. The average price was also affected by the shift in demand towards expensive real estate, including suburban and with improved infrastructure, Vladimir Chernov said.
What will housing prices be like this year
Housing will continue to rise in price, Vladimir Chernov believes. According to him, the main driver will be a shortage of supply in a number of regions and an increase in construction costs. Novikom did not rule out that the average bill for housing will continue to increase within 3-5%.
According to Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank, average prices for new buildings may rise by 9% in 2025, largely due to the rising cost of housing construction. However, in the secondary market, the cost may decrease slightly due to tight monetary policy and a slowdown in household income growth. The fewer opportunities there are to take out a mortgage on such apartments, the lower the demand and the greater the discount.
Housing prices, as well as the average mortgage bill, are likely to stop increasing after the cancellation of commissions from developers, said Vitaly Kostyukevich, director of Absolut Bank's retail products department. Credit organizations have begun to introduce such fees for developers for each concessional loan issued. They could reach up to 10% and were usually passed on to the buyer. But thanks to the actions of the authorities, the largest banks have already begun to abandon such practices. Commissions may become a thing of the past in the future of 3-6 months, Vitaly Kostyukevich expects.
At the same time, the average mortgage bill is still lower than the real average cost of housing for sale, and this is a positive factor for the stability of the market, the VTB press service noted.
— The formula is simple: the borrower receives the necessary amount for the purchase of housing, not only by attracting a loan, but also using personal funds as a down payment, as well as various forms of government support, such as maternity capital. In addition, the Central Bank is consistently working to ensure that the difference between the amount of the mortgage loan and the cost of the purchased housing is significant," VTB explained.
This allows us to create a better and more secure mortgage portfolio, the bank added.
When will mortgages become more affordable
Increasing the loan amount and term to record levels creates additional risks for borrowers and banks, warned Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. At current key rate levels, even a slight deterioration in the financial situation of a family can lead to problems with payments, especially for borrowers with a high debt burden. This means that the probability of delays may increase, especially with a slowdown in the economy or an increase in unemployment.
The risk of defaults in the mortgage market remains, Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company, agreed. The bank cannot calculate the client's income for 30 years ahead. However, the share of overdue debt is still at a low, safe level (less than 1%).
In addition, in recent years, most mortgage loans have been issued under preferential programs at rates of 6-7% per annum. This significantly reduces the risks of defaults, Vladimir Chernov added.
If Russians now take out mortgages even at 30%, then in the future they will try to restructure the loan at a more favorable interest rate as soon as the Central Bank begins to reduce the key rate, Evgeny Shavnev is sure.
The Bank of Russia may begin to ease policy in June – July 2025, predicts Anna Zemlyanova from Sovcombank. According to her estimates, a reduction is possible immediately to 19-20%. VTB expects the first steps only by the end of the year. However, the forecast directly depends on the dynamics of inflation. If there are persistent signs of a slowdown in price growth, the Central Bank may reduce the key rate as early as the third quarter, the credit institution noted.
But it is possible to talk about the availability of a mortgage only if the interest rate is reduced to 12-15%, said Vitaly Kostyukevich from Absolut Bank. According to him, this is possible no earlier than in a year and a half.
The regulator will act smoothly to avoid a new round of inflation, VTB expects. A return to historically low rates in the early 2020s and affordable loans for a wide range of borrowers is unlikely in the coming years. The market will need time to adjust and recover.
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