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- You can't plan to buy: what did the first quarter of 2025 show on the real estate market in Moscow?
You can't plan to buy: what did the first quarter of 2025 show on the real estate market in Moscow?
The first quarter of 2025 has been a period of contrasts for the Moscow real estate market. On the one hand, experts note a decrease in sales in the segment of primary mass housing and the commissioning of new facilities. On the other hand, the demand for luxury real estate continues to grow steadily. What to expect from prices in the second quarter is in the Izvestia article.
Mass segment: prolonged decline
By the end of March, the drop in demand for economy-class residential properties in the Moscow metropolitan area was 20%, according to Nikita Zhuravlev, an independent expert on the real estate market. The total supply of primary housing in this segment in the first quarter decreased by 16.8% compared to the same period in 2024, to 17 thousand lots. Of these, 15.5 thousand accounted for apartments (-15% per year) and 1.6 thousand for apartments (-28%).
— We can record an adjustment in sales of new buildings, but only in demand, where the average cost per square meter increased by 4.5%, — says the interlocutor of Izvestia.
An unprecedented situation has developed in the Moscow market of new buildings in the mass segment in terms of the delivery of facilities, recalls Zhuravlev. In the first quarter of 2025, not a single new project was put on sale.
— All developers have started to postpone the start of projects "to the right" due to expensive loans. Another factor is the expectation of a reduction in the key rate," the expert explains.
The lack of new projects in the capital naturally leads to higher prices, adds Ekaterina Nikitina, Vice president of the Guild of Realtors of Moscow, General Director of the real estate agency PRO EXCHANGE. She notes that the current cost per square meter in new buildings has reached 341 thousand rubles.
The expert recommends that buyers do not delay the purchase of real estate, as the shortage of lots continues to increase.
Nikita Zhuravlev recalls that the Russian government also pointed out the impending shortage of new housing in the country. According to the assessment of "Dom.Russian Federation", it can reach up to 30 million square meters. m by 2027-2028. According to the analyst, this may affect the development of the construction industry as a whole.
Meanwhile, the secondary market recorded a 12.5% increase in transactions, to 33,909, Ekaterina Nikitina notes. In March alone, 12,355 purchases were recorded. The bulk of the transfer of rights occurred in the mass segment of housing within the borders of "old" Moscow. However, according to the expert, this is not a sign of a sales boom in this segment.
— The main growth factors are alternative transaction chains and migration demand. Sellers often inflate prices, but buyers are actively bidding. For example, the successful sale of an apartment now requires more than 10 impressions, whereas previously it was enough for five or seven," she emphasizes.
One of the purchase options, despite the high rates, remains a mortgage. The number of transactions with such loans, according to the Moscow Federal Register, increased by 8.6% from January to March, to 29,082. According to Igor Maydanov, the head of the department's department, this value has been registered for the first time since 2022. At the same time, there is a slight decrease in the monthly dynamics in February-March. It is approximately 6%.
Today, the demand for economy-class real estate is mainly provided by preferential mortgage programs that stimulate the activity of buyers, Nikitina draws attention.
The capital, as Vladimir Yefimov, Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Urban Planning and Construction, pointed out, remains the leader among Russian regions in terms of government-backed housing loans. In the first quarter, 107.8 billion rubles were issued as part of a family mortgage. This is equal to 24.1% of the national level within the framework of the program.
By the way, the government is considering the possibility of extending the family mortgage program. This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin in an interview with Izvestia. The amount of budget expenditures at the current rate may exceed 1 trillion rubles.
The authorities are also considering the possibility of increasing the subsidized loan, since the 6 and 12 million provided under the program are often not enough for Russians.
Luxury real estate: investment potential
But mortgage lending is not present in the luxury real estate segment, Nikita Zhuravlev notes. Sales are mostly conducted at full cost or by installments.
— We have been seeing sales growth in this segment for more than a year. The price per square meter reaches 3 million rubles. At the same time, there are more and more apartments with a value above 1 billion rubles," the expert points out.
In the first quarter alone, prices for luxury real estate increased by more than 5-7%, Andrei Tonkonogov, head of the real estate consulting practice at TeDo, cites statistics.
— It can be noted that over the past two years, the commissioning of luxury real estate has increased from 11 to 18% of the total volume of housing under construction in Moscow, — he clarifies.
Ekaterina Nikitina believes that this segment is steadily growing as an investment product.
— Wealthy buyers consider such facilities as a reliable means of protection against inflation. The investment potential remains, especially in locations with developed infrastructure," the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
However, even in the luxury real estate segment, there are risks of a shortage of offers, as developers are currently completing existing key projects.
Commercial real estate: an acquisition trend
Today, companies are increasingly refusing to rent commercial real estate, preferring to purchase it, Ekaterina Nikitina notes. She attributes this trend to high loan rates starting at 20%, which make long-term rentals less attractive.
In total, more than 420 commercial premises were sold in the capital in the first quarter of 2025, the press service of the capital's Department for Competition Policy previously clarified. Their total area was 80.7 thousand square meters. m.
Most of the objects were sold in the east of Moscow and in the Central Administrative District. On average, eight people applied for one lot, which indicates a high demand for commercial premises.
At the moment, among other things, there is an increase in demand for logistics complexes. This became possible thanks to the development of e-commerce, Nikitina points out. In total, investments in this sector increased by 70% in the first quarter of this year.
Companies are also actively acquiring offices. Moreover, preference is given to premises in areas with good transport accessibility. Investments in such real estate increased 3.1 times.
The office segment uses two object realization formats, adds Andrey Tonkonogov.
— This is the sale of large business centers for the headquarters of large companies. The second option is to sell in "small cuts", that is, in small blocks for private investors, the expert explains.
Meanwhile, according to Nikitina, activity in the retail segment decreased by 70%, due to the increased popularity of online commerce.
What will happen next
The market will continue to cool down against the background of forecasts for the key rate, predicts Andrey Tonkonogov. The demand for economy segment real estate, for example, may decrease by 30-40% compared to last year.
— At the same time, we do not expect a sharp increase in rental rates or selling prices. Most likely, these will be adjustments based on inflation or construction costs," the expert expects.
However, the cost may rise if the supply shortage continues to worsen, admits Ekaterina Nikitina. Developers are in no hurry to launch new projects, not only because of high loan rates, but also due to a shortage of building materials.
— The mortgage market may revive if the Central Bank reduces the key interest rate, which is expected from June. Investors should pay attention to areas with new infrastructure, such as renovation zones," the Izvestia interlocutor recommends.
The main trend today is that the real estate market is becoming less predictable. That's why customers should act quickly, but without panic. According to Nikitina, it makes sense for investors to look for undervalued objects. But sellers should avoid overcharging.
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