By the rate order: deposit profitability returned to the level of August 2024
Banks are preparing to reduce the key rate. Nine of the top 10 credit institutions lowered deposit rates before the next meeting of the Central Bank — the average yield dropped to its lowest levels since August 2024, below 19%, Izvestia found out. This means that market players are planning an early easing of monetary policy. There is a growing possibility that the key will be lowered as early as June 6, or at least in July and August. What this means for the economy and where to invest money in conditions when deposits are becoming less profitable is in the Izvestia article.
Bank deposit rates
Deposit rates for periods from three months to a year have fallen to 18.8%, the lowest since August 2024, according to data on banks' websites (Izvestia has studied them). Over the past month, nine of the top 10 credit institutions have reviewed the profitability of deposits.
Deposit rates for three months and six months during this time fell by 0.5 percentage points and reached a range of 19.2%, annual deposits — by 0.7 percentage points, up to 18%, follows from the data of credit institutions.
Despite the gradual decline in yields, the savings rate is now near historical highs, the Central Bank's press service explained to Izvestia. This level is enough for less money to be spent on the consumption of goods and services, and demand in the economy will eventually slow down.
The deposit market grew by almost 1 trillion rubles in April alone, the VTB press service said. The decrease in yields has not significantly affected the inflow of money so far, so banks are simply taking advantage of the opportunity to reduce the cost of their resources, said Vitaly Kostyukevich, Director of Absolut Bank's Retail products department. This is advantageous: for example, with a deposit rate of 18% and a loan of 35%, the margin of the business, roughly speaking, will be 17%. That is why banks are trying to reduce the profitability of savings instruments.
Banks' need for Russians' money is gradually decreasing, as they have already managed to accumulate reserves for issuing loans in the future, said economist Andrey Barkhota. As of the beginning of April, deposits increased by 23% over the year, and the loan portfolio halved by only 12%.
When will the key rate start to decrease
In a standard situation, deposit pricing is formed according to the "key rate minus 1-1.5 percentage points" scheme, explained Andrey Barkhota. If banks have set deposit yields for three and six months at about 19%, it turns out that they expect a key rate of no more than 20-20.5% for this period. At the same time, they expect that the rate is highly likely to be about 19% over the next year.
In general, the actions of banks may indicate that there is a possibility of a rate cut at the Central Bank meeting on June 6, said Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.
If rates continue to be lowered in the next two weeks, which are left before the meeting, and if such dynamics affect interest rates on loans, it will be possible to draw an unambiguous conclusion that the market is confident that the key rate will decrease in the very near future, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Nevertheless, most experts agree that for now the regulator will take a pause to prepare the market for a smoother policy easing. According to Yuri Latanov, head of the PSB's Savings and Transaction Products department, the decline cycle may begin as early as the second half of the year, that is, as early as the July meeting.
And most likely, the Central Bank will decide to ease policy in August-September, said Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency. The rate will be reduced in small steps of 1-2 percentage points.
Moreover, it is unlikely that the key amount will be sharply reduced, Andrei Barkhota clarified. The dynamics of interest rates suggests that banks allow it to remain at a high, actually prohibitive level for a long time. This reflects the economic situation: sanctions and geopolitical risks remain, and demand is outstripping supply, as most sectors not related to defense orders are experiencing a slowdown. At the same time, there are many interested parties in reducing the key rate: due to the harsh policy of the Bank of Russia, businesses cannot borrow for development and GDP slows down quite sharply, and the government has to spend ever larger amounts, for example, to finance preferential mortgages.
What to invest in in June 2025
Although the profitability of deposits is decreasing, the rates on them at the level of 18-19% can still be considered very high, said Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. This yield by a huge margin exceeds the inflation rate in the first quarter of 2025, which was 8.3%, according to the Central Bank's summary of the last meeting of the board of directors.
However, the peak of deposit profitability has definitely passed, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global emphasized. Investors can already think about where to transfer money after reducing interest on deposits. Now it makes sense to pay attention to federal loan bonds (OFZ) and bonds of leading Russian companies, the yields of which are also interconnected with the key one, Igor Dodonov added.
In addition, money market mutual funds guarantee returns close to the Central Bank's rate, but at the same time they make it possible to quickly lock in income.
It also makes sense to transfer some of the funds to stocks before the key ones start to be reduced, Finam emphasized. After policy easing, the stock market may gradually start to grow. However, it is important to take into account that it is also influenced by other factors — especially now, geopolitical news is important, which can both raise the value of securities and bring it down.
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