Buried a deposit: seven of the top 10 banks lowered deposit rates
More than half of the major banks lowered deposit rates before the Central Bank's April meeting on the key issue, Izvestia found out. Their average yield dropped to 19%. Credit institutions adjust the terms of their products in advance before the expected easing of the regulator's policy. However, it is unlikely that the key one will be lowered this week, but in June the Central Bank is highly likely to make such a decision. The influx of money into deposits may slow down, but the market offers other low-risk products that are still profitable. What would be profitable to invest in in such conditions is in the Izvestia article.
Deposit rates in April 2025
Seven of the ten largest banks have lowered deposit rates since the beginning of April, according to data from the websites of credit institutions (Izvestia studied them). The average return on deposits for a period of three months to a year is now close to 19%, which is 2 percentage points lower than the key one.
The rates on semi-annual deposits, in turn, decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the month, to 19.5%. Deposits used to yield the highest returns for six months, but now they are equal to the interest on short terms.
The reduction in deposit rates, especially short—term ones, is a direct reflection of market expectations for easing the Central Bank's monetary policy, said Gayane Zamaleeva, an analyst at <url>. Moreover, by such actions, financial organizations show that they predict policy easing in the next six months. By reducing yields in advance, players are trying to get more benefits, said economist Andrei Barkhota.
Conditions for short-term products are most sensitive to forecasts for the key rate, according to Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The fact that more than half of the largest players have changed their offers confirms that there is a steady consensus in market expectations.
Judging by the level of deposit rates, it allows for a reduction in the key rate in the summer, potentially in June or July, Vladimir Chernov explained. The size of the first step may be 0.5 percentage points, meaning the rate is likely to be lowered to 20.5%. If inflation continues to slow down, more drastic actions are possible — a reduction to 20% immediately.
Perhaps the Central Bank will lower the rate twice this year, but only by 0.5 percentage points, Gayane Zamaleeva admitted. In general, a sharp decrease should not be expected, the press service of the Post Bank is confident. It is unlikely that it will be reduced by more than 1 percentage point by the end of 2025.
Izvestia sent a request to the largest banks about their plans to adjust rates again while softening the rhetoric of the Central Bank following the meeting on April 25.
How to make money with a declining key
There are already more profitable instruments on the market than deposits. Mutual funds (mutual funds) of the money market promise returns of up to 22%, specified in the Management company Finam Management. This is 3 percentage points higher than the average deposit rates for up to a year.
Money market funds are a type of mutual funds (when investors' funds are accumulated and used to purchase assets). Their peculiarity is that they usually earn money by lending foreign currency (mainly rubles and yuan) to large financial market players (for example, other banks). The profitability of such investments is related to the key rate and usually corresponds to it. It is believed that the risks of investing in money market mutual funds are minimal, since money cannot "go into negative territory," but the yield is very volatile and can change every day, but it will be close to the key.
The profitability of mutual funds depends on the level of interbank loan rates in rubles. There is a separate benchmark for tracking them, RUONIA. Since the beginning of the year, this indicator has averaged 21.1%, said Vladimir Kornev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. According to him, this is a normal indicator at the current key.
At the same time, the profitability of deposits can now be called underestimated, because they have dropped by 2 percentage points less than the Central Bank's rate, Vladimir Kornev added. Banks lower their interest rates ahead of time, but because of this, investors may switch to other financial instruments, added Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
Most likely, the inflow of public funds to deposits will slow down somewhat in the coming months, agreed Gayane Zamaleeva from <url>. This is especially true for ordinary retail customers, for whom it is important to maximize returns from savings products.
However, banks are confident that the deposit market will continue to grow. According to VTB, there is stable demand for deposits. Novik Bank explained that the rates on them are still very profitable. Especially when compared with other potential investment options: the stock market is very volatile due to the news about the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, and buying real estate now, even with a mortgage, has too high an entry threshold.
— In conditions of great uncertainty, the general interest in deposits as a "safe haven" will continue, — said Gayane Zamaleeva.
Nevertheless, Russians should definitely hurry up with making deposits, concluded <url>. The peak of profitability has already passed, but there remains enough time to fix it for up to a year.
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