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- Good background rules: how a large-scale prisoner exchange affects the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev
Good background rules: how a large-scale prisoner exchange affects the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev
The exchange of prisoners of war and civilians may create the necessary background for the further course of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On May 23, Moscow and Kiev made the first large—scale exchange within the framework of the agreements reached in Istanbul - so far under the "390 for 390" formula. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the released Russians are now in Belarus. According to Izvestia, the returning residents of the Kursk region will be met by representatives of the Russian Red Cross.
New exchange of prisoners of war and civilians
The first stage of the large-scale exchange under the "1000 to 1000" formula started on May 23. The Russian Defense Ministry said that in accordance with the Russian-Ukrainian agreements reached in Istanbul last week, 270 military personnel, as well as 120 civilians, including captured civilians from the Kursk region, returned to Russia. In return, Moscow handed over 270 prisoners of war of the Ukrainian army and 120 civilians to Kiev.
"Currently, Russian military personnel and civilians are in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, where they are receiving the necessary psychological and medical assistance," the ministry said. — All Russian military personnel and civilians will be transported to the Russian Federation for treatment and rehabilitation in medical institutions.
The large-scale exchange initiated by the Russian Federation is planned to continue in the coming days, the Defense Ministry stressed. However, the exact date has not yet been announced. As Izvestia found out, the returned Kuryans will be met at the regional center by representatives of the Russian Red Cross. By the way, at the end of March, with the mediation of the International Committee of the Red Cross, the third operation took place to return residents of the Kursk region from the territory of Ukraine.
The return of 390 Russians from captivity is an important stage in the implementation of the results of Istanbul—2, said Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs.
— The total exchange will be the largest — 1000 to 1000. And this is a very important agreement, which is aimed at saving the lives and returning home of Russian soldiers," he believes.
The previous exchange of prisoners of war took place on May 6 in the "205 to 205" format. On the eve of Easter on April 19, a large-scale exchange took place according to the formula "246 for 246", which became the largest since the beginning of hostilities. Also, as a gesture of goodwill, the Russian Federation handed over 31 wounded prisoners of war to Ukraine in exchange for 15 seriously wounded Russian soldiers in need of urgent medical care. All the released Russian servicemen were taken to Belarus for psychological and medical support, and then to the Russian Federation for treatment and rehabilitation. A month earlier, on March 19, the exchange took place according to the "175 for 175" formula.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) took an active part in the return of Russian servicemen from Ukrainian captivity. The Russian Federation has repeatedly stated that it highly appreciates the UAE's assistance in organizing exchanges.
Soldiers and officers should know that the Motherland remembers them and is ready to return them home in any situation, military expert Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia.
"This is important for military personnel," he said. — The prisoners are our citizens, and we must do everything to rescue them from Ukrainian captivity. Moreover, people are being bullied there. We have a lot of evidence of this.
The importance of exchange for the course of negotiations
Moscow and Kiev have agreed to continue bilateral meetings, which were interrupted in the spring of 2022. The second round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on the settlement of the armed conflict will take place, although the venue and timing of its holding have not yet been determined, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on May 23. According to him, as soon as the prisoner exchange is completed, Russia will be ready to hand over to Ukraine a draft document on the settlement of the crisis.
Following the first round of negotiations, the delegations agreed to continue discussions after exchanging views on a possible future ceasefire. Earlier, Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a future peace agreement.
Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin
Interestingly, the exchange was first announced by US President Donald Trump, who is actively positioning himself as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, American military assistance is crucial for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The latest statement by Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to Zelensky's office, is indicative, stating that Kiev cannot allow the United States to withdraw from the conflict, "since their military support is necessary for both Europe and Ukraine."
However, a major exchange of prisoners of war is an important humanitarian step that will play a crucial role in maintaining dialogue and create an impetus for further direct meetings between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.
— There is no doubt that Trump is only happy to position himself as a key mediator, whose participation and influence, according to his personal beliefs, contributed to a humanitarian breakthrough. However, despite the exchange that took place, the two sides still remain far apart on basic issues such as territorial control and the terms of the ceasefire. The prisoner exchange alone does not solve these problems, but it keeps channels open and can prevent a complete diplomatic collapse even at the start of the first rounds of bilateral meetings.
The exchange will be a plus for the ongoing negotiations with Ukraine, but it is just a favorable factor that accompanies this process, military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia.
"The prisoners, albeit in smaller batches, were exchanged all three years, but the fighting did not stop from this," he stressed.
According to the expert, according to various estimates, from 6 thousand to 8 thousand Ukrainian servicemen are in captivity. Military expert Viktor Litovkin recalled that Russia does not give away militants of the nationalist formations of Ukraine, as well as those who are under investigation or have already been convicted of war crimes and fanaticism — there were significantly more of them after the Kursk events.
In June 2024 (before the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region), Vladimir Putin reported that 1,348 Russian soldiers and officers were being held captive in Ukraine, and 6,465 Ukrainian militants were in Russia.
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