Oil numbers: government allowed fuel prices to rise above inflation
The government held a meeting of the headquarters on the situation on the domestic market of petroleum products. Despite the stability in fuel supply, the meeting participants discussed the possibility of increasing the retail cost of gasoline and diesel above inflation due to the increase in excise duty at the beginning of the year. According to experts, if inflation falls to the levels planned in the budget (7-8%), then it will be difficult to meet this level due to the increase in fuel costs. Especially if the government goes to further reduce budget expenditures and returns to the idea of reducing payments under the damper. About what to expect for the fuel market in Russia, see the Izvestia article.
The situation on the fuel market
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting of the headquarters on the situation on the domestic market of petroleum products. This is stated in the message of the Cabinet of Ministers. The meeting participants discussed the situation on the market of petroleum products, the conditions of their transportation by rail, as well as the supply of fuel to agricultural producers.
According to the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service, fuel prices in the retail segment remain stable and there is no shortage. The domestic market is fully supplied with gasoline and diesel. Deliveries to agricultural producers during the sowing campaign are proceeding according to plan, and all applications from farmers are being met.
Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service to monitor fuel prices across the country and in certain regions, including the Far Eastern Federal District. In addition, the departments should ensure the regularity and uniformity of sales of gasoline and diesel on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange to meet consumer requests during the period of increased summer demand, as well as work out timely delivery dates to customers by rail.
A source familiar with the discussion told Izvestia that the meeting raised the issue of raising excise taxes as a factor in a possible increase in the retail cost of fuel above inflation. He noted that the participants of the meeting allowed prices to rise in the country at the level of an increase in excise taxes. According to him, the event also decided to extend the export ban for non-manufacturers until October.
Rising excise taxes and inflation
The fiscal burden on the oil industry has increased this year. Since January 1, excise taxes on petroleum products have increased: for gasoline AI-95 — from 15.65 to 17.09 thousand rubles per ton, for diesel fuel — from 10.84 to 12.12 thousand per ton. According to preliminary calculations, in April 2025, the size of the gasoline damper may amount to 7.65 thousand rubles.
At the same time, oil prices have decreased. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, if in January the average price level for Urals was $67.66, then in April it was $57.76 per barrel.
According to the Ministry of Finance, payments from the Russian budget to oil companies for fuel dampers have been decreasing since the beginning of the year: in January they amounted to 156.4 billion rubles, in February — 148.3 billion, in March — 100.3 billion, in April — only 62.7 billion rubles.
Due to the fall in oil prices, the profitability of the sale of petroleum products in Russia for vertically integrated companies is negative. As Izvestia's sources in the industry noted, oil companies "pay more excise taxes than they receive a damper refund."
Currently, the increase in retail prices has not exceeded the increase in inflation. According to Rostat, in January, the average cost of AI-92 was 55.54 rubles per liter, AI-95 — 60.67 rubles, diesel — 70.66 rubles per liter. As of May 5, the cost of the AI-92 increased to 56.49 rubles, the AI-95 to 61.72 rubles, the diesel rose to 71.3 rubles per liter.
According to Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union, gasoline and diesel fuel prices have increased by less than 2% since the beginning of the year (on average in Russia: DT — 1.7%, AI-92 — 1.85%, AI-95 — 1.8%) with inflation at 3%.
According to Rosstat, in March 2025, the inflation rate in Russia was 0.65%. At the same time, inflation for the first quarter of this year was 2.71%. At the same time, the Bank of Russia reported that in the first quarter, annual inflation was 10.3%, which is lower than the February forecast of the regulator (10.6%).
According to Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, the cabinet's decision to allow retail fuel prices to rise above inflation looks quite logical.
— Despite the fact that the tariffs of natural monopolies are indexed annually, and the standard increase in retail prices is not higher than inflation, we have not recorded anywhere. An increase in excise taxes is a direct increase in producer costs, which is not compensated by anything. And the inflation rate does not cover the increase in gas station costs and the cost of lending. Therefore, I believe that this decision is quite logical," the source told Izvestia. — If someone thinks that the cost of gasoline and diesel is high, then in our country there are types of motor fuels that are subsidized by the state - LPG and CNG.
No one prevents consumers from switching to alternatives and not buying either gasoline or diesel, he added. In his opinion, gas engine fuel should be social, and gasoline and diesel should remain on the market.
Alexander Novak's secretariat, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Finance, the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, the Federal Antimonopoly Service and oil companies did not respond to Izvestia's request.
How will the situation on the fuel market develop
Experts are in no hurry to assess how much the retail cost of fuel may increase, since much will depend on the level of inflation itself. The Bank of Russia expects a further slowdown in price growth in the Russian Federation in the second quarter to 10.1%, follows from the regulator's comment on the medium-term forecast.
— In the updated base forecast, the price growth in the second quarter will be 7% seasonally adjusted in annual terms. It is projected to slow down further in the second half of the year (with the exception of July, due to the planned indexation of utility bills). By the end of the year, the price growth rate will decrease to 4% seasonally adjusted in annual terms. The annual inflation forecast for the end of 2025 remains unchanged: 7-8%, the Central Bank's commentary says.
Igor Yushkov, an expert and lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, noted that it is still unclear whether the increase in fuel costs will meet the inflation rate by the end of the year.
— This is a big difference — 7-8% or 10-10.5%. That's why it's hard to say. If we assume that, say, it will be 10%, then there is a chance that the cost of fuel will meet the inflation rate. In any case, fuel will become more expensive, and one of the main factors is the increase in excise taxes at the beginning of the year," the source said.
Grigory Bazhenov, head of the analytical center of the Independent Fuel Union, recalled that excise taxes on gasoline and diesel are growing by 4% annually.
"Considering that excise taxes account for about 30% of the wholesale price structure and about 23% of the retail price, a 4% increase in excise taxes affects a change in the price of a liter by about 1%," he said.
Igor Yushkov recalled that last year the increase in the cost of diesel fuel met the inflation rate, but gasoline did not.
— The main fuel consumption season is just beginning. Let's see what happens next. I think if inflation really falls to the levels planned in the budget, it will be difficult to meet this level. And it is possible that we may exceed the inflation rate not only for gasoline, as it was in 2024, but also for diesel. Especially if the government goes to further reduce budget expenditures and returns to the idea of reducing payments under the damper, as it was in 2023," the source believes.
Back then, too, at the beginning of the year, the budget did not receive oil and gas revenues, because the discount on Russian raw materials increased again as a result of sanctions, it reached $30-35 per barrel, the expert noted.
According to him, if the budget deficit grows, then such a measure as a reduction in damping payments may be applied. Then it will be difficult to keep up with the inflation rate, Igor Yushkov concluded.
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