They did not finish pumping: the volume of oil transportation decreased in Russia
The drop in refining profitability forced oil companies to reduce the loading of refineries, which led to a drop in the pumping of raw materials inside the country, sources in the industry told Izvestia. At the same time, the fall in oil prices below the sanctions "ceiling" allowed for an increase in export shipments in April by 12-14%. The impact of this situation on the domestic market of petroleum products will be discussed at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Wednesday, May 14. According to Izvestia's interlocutors, in order to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market, the participants plan to discuss tax, logistics and other measures to support the industry.
The government will discuss the imbalance in the oil products market
A "rather unusual situation" has developed in the oil products market, which required a special meeting in the government, a source told Izvestia. It will be held on May 14 under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, follows from the materials for the meeting, which were reviewed by Izvestia.
— Due to the fall in oil prices, the profitability of the sale of petroleum products in Russia for vertically integrated companies is currently negative. They pay more excise taxes than they receive a refund on the damper. Therefore, companies prefer to reduce the workload of their plants, which leads to a decrease in oil pumping within the country, using the Transneft system. At the same time, considering that today Russian oil is trading below the "ceiling" of prices set by Western sanctions, oil exports are growing. According to our data, it increased by 12-14% in April alone," said Izvestia's source in the industry.
According to him, the Cabinet of Ministers will hold a meeting to discuss the current situation and prevent an imbalance and shortage of fuel in the domestic market.
The question of the reasons for the decrease in oil pumping through the Transneft system is indeed on the agenda of the meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, follows from the materials for the meeting, which were reviewed by Izvestia. However, it does not indicate how much oil pumping has decreased.
Izvestia sent a request to Transneft, the Ministry of Energy and large vertically integrated oil companies asking for comment on this issue.
Is it critical to reduce oil transportation
Transneft expects that in 2025 the volume of oil pumping through its pipeline system will remain at the level of 2024. This was announced in March by the head of the company, Nikolai Tokarev, on the sidelines of the RSPP congress. Earlier, Sergey Andronov, Vice President of Transneft, reported that by the end of 2024, the company expects a 2% decrease in oil transportation through its system due to Russia's obligations under OPEC+, and oil products at the level of the previous year with a slight increase in supplies to the domestic market. In 2023, Transneft planned to pump 463 million tons of oil through its system.
According to Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies, the decline in oil transportation through the Transneft system is a temporary phenomenon and is unlikely to cause any significant damage to the oil transportation monopoly.
— It is difficult to talk about any volumes now due to the lack of information. But I don't think this can have any impact on the financial situation of Transneft," the expert believes.
Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, agrees with her. According to him, among other things, the decrease in oil pumping through the Transneft system was due to a reduction in Russian oil exports due to the OPEC+ agreement. In other words, we are not talking about the fact that Russian refineries are not receiving enough raw materials.
— At the same time, the increase in oil pumping tariffs has an indirect negative impact on the market. Let me remind you that since January 1, 2025, they have increased by 9.9%, although initially it was assumed that the growth would be 5.8%. Coupled with the overall extremely high tax burden on the oil sector, such an increase in tariffs increases pressure on domestic oil refining, reduces the investment attractiveness of projects for the development and modernization of refineries, which ultimately cannot but affect the oil products market," said Andrianov.
The damper is at the head of the corner
It is worth recalling that the fiscal burden on the oil industry has increased this year. Since January 1, 2025, excise taxes on petroleum products have increased: for gasoline AI-95 — from 15.65 to 17.09 thousand rubles per ton, for diesel fuel — from 10.84 to 12.12 thousand rubles per ton. According to preliminary calculations, in April 2025, the size of the gasoline damper may amount to 7.65 thousand rubles.
At the same time, oil prices decreased. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, if in January the average price level for Urals was $67.66, then in April it was $57.76 per barrel.
— Considering that the excise tax is a constant amount, and the size of the damper varies depending on market conditions, it is natural that oil companies receive fewer payments on the damper every month this year, — Olga Orlova noted.
A damper is a mechanism that was created to curb domestic fuel prices. It began to be used on January 1, 2019. It is designed to equalize the attractiveness of exports and shipments to the domestic market for producers of petroleum products and ensure sufficient marginality of the retail market for doing business.
The damper is calculated based on the difference between the export cost of fuel and the domestic price. If this difference is positive, and the export of petroleum products becomes more profitable than supplies to the domestic market, then the state "helps" oil companies, if the difference is negative, on the contrary, oil companies contribute money to the state budget.
According to the Ministry of Finance, payments from the Russian budget to oil companies for fuel dampers have been decreasing since the beginning of the year: in January 2025, they amounted to 156.4 billion rubles, in February — 148.3 billion, in March — 100.3 billion, in April — only 62.7 billion rubles.
At the same time, as Olga Orlova notes, despite seasonal repairs and sowing operations, according to the Ministry of Energy, oil reserves are currently 2-3% higher than at the beginning of this year.
— On the one hand, there is no apparent reason to worry right now. However, the dampening payments are decreasing, as well as the attractiveness of oil refining in general, so it is better to analyze the situation now and stop the occurrence of possible fuel crises, rather than later understand the situation and introduce additional manual management of the industry. Moreover, oil prices on the world market have been declining since the beginning of the year and are very much dependent on the unstable geopolitical factor, the expert believes.
An integrated approach
As noted in the materials for the government meeting, the meeting participants will really comprehensively discuss the situation on the oil products market. The agenda also includes issues of marginality, the tax burden due to the introduction of excise taxes, and proposals to prioritize the supply of petroleum products by rail to the domestic market. In addition, the meeting will discuss the issue of amendments to the order on the standards of fuel exchange sales, providing for obligations to sell 1% of the volume of transactions concluded under supply futures contracts, the price situation for agricultural producers, and the mechanism for banning the export of petroleum products for non-producers.
It is worth recalling that in mid-April, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov stated that in the near future, at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, it is planned to approve new parameters for deviations of stock prices for fuel from indicative ones, at which the damper will not be reset. As Izvestia previously reported, regulators are discussing the possibility of allowing oil companies to deviate from the indicative price by 15% and 25% for gasoline and diesel fuel, respectively. Experts believe that such easing may lead to an increase in wholesale prices for motor fuel and a decrease in the profitability of independent gas stations.
Valery Andrianov believes that one should not forget that problems with providing fuel to certain regions of the Russian Federation arise precisely because of logistical difficulties, namely due to congestion on the railway. This leads to higher gasoline prices for the population.
— In this regard, since the beginning of 2025, the reduction in the priority of exporting petroleum products by rail from the third stage to the sixth creates certain risks. Of course, exceptions can be made to this rule depending on the market situation, but, as practice shows, such measures are resorted to when a shortage has already arisen and gas station prices have begun to rise. In other words, in the summer of this year, a repeat of the situation in 2024 is possible, when emergency measures had to be taken to prevent a sharp increase in gasoline and diesel prices, the expert believes.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-MEDIA), if diesel fuel is transported through the Transneft system in an amount of approximately 50% of the production volume, gasoline — up to 10% of the production volume in Russia. The rest of the oil products are sent via the Russian Railways system and by road.
"Thus, to ensure price stabilization during the agricultural work period, prioritizing the supply of motor fuel by rail is of great importance," the expert believes.
According to her, such an experience was already implemented in March 2024, when the priority of rail shipments of petroleum products was shifted from the sixth to the third stage.
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