Get out of OPEC: Kazakhstan may leave the cartel
Kazakhstan may withdraw from OPEC+. Experts interviewed by Izvestia do not rule out discussing this issue at the alliance's meeting on May 3. The day before, the Minister of Energy of the republic, Yerlan Akkenzhenov, publicly stated that the country would be guided by national interests, not the interests of the alliance. Analysts admit the possibility of a chain reaction, especially among states with limited investment programs and budget deficits. The information about what decisions the cartel can make is in the Izvestia article.
Why Kazakhstan may withdraw from OPEC+
Before the next OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on May 3, Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said that when determining oil production levels, the country will be guided by national interests, not the interests of the OPEC+ alliance.
Aktau Oil Pumping Station
— We will try to adjust our actions. If we are partners, if we are not satisfied with the adjustment of our actions, then we will act again in accordance with national interests with all the ensuing consequences," he said in an interview with Reuters.
According to him, Kazakhstan cannot reduce production at its three major oil projects, as they are controlled by foreign companies, especially at the Tengiz field, headed by Chevron.
An oil refinery. Tengiz oil field
General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media) Tamara Safonova recalled: according to OPEC calculations, the cumulative compensation restriction may amount to 1.299 million barrels per day from April 2025 to June 2026.
At the same time, production excluding gas condensate in March, according to OPEC, amounted to 1.85 million barrels per day, primarily due to increased development at the Tengiz field.
— If the Western majors withdrew from the share capital of Russian oil companies against the background of sanctions, then the shareholders of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan through Tengizchevroil are Chevron (USA) — 50%, Exxon Mobil (USA) — 25%, Kazmunaygas (Kazakhstan) — 20% and Lukoil (Russia) — 5%. In fact, Kazakhstan, represented by Kazmunaigas, does not have a decisive voice in the formation of plans for the extraction of raw materials," the Izvestia interlocutor noted.
Thus, on the one hand, Kazakhstan supports the commitment to "further cooperation within OPEC+," shares the principles of balancing and predictable pricing in the oil market, on the other hand, it has no formal leverage over the shareholders of the Tengiz field, Tamara Safonova added.
Oil at the Ayrankol oil field
"This once again underlines the expediency of investing equity in strategic energy projects," the expert noted.
In the future, Kazakhstan may increase production by 1 million barrels per day, says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. According to OPEC, by the end of 2024, the actual volume of oil production in Kazakhstan amounted to 1.85 million barrels per day.
— This is a very dangerous story for the entire OPEC+. Kazakhstan cannot manage production in the country, as most projects are implemented on PSA terms with foreign participants. What the national company extracts goes to the domestic market, and Astana cannot reduce volumes to the detriment of the country's needs," the expert added.
Will there be a chain reaction
It is quite logical that after the Kazakh demarche, the market started talking about the fact that Astana's statement could be a prelude to the republic's withdrawal from the OPEC+ alliance, which in recent years has been trying to keep world oil prices in the range of $ 70-90 per barrel. At the same time, Kazakhstan, among others, was one of the worst violators of the unification agreements. Only Iraq violated it more.
Recall that the OPEC+ countries, which exceeded production quotas and then promised to further reduce it as compensation, presented plans to fulfill their intention. The total amount of this compensation should amount to 4,572 million barrels. The reduction began in April and will last until June 2026. Iraq will have to compensate for overproduction of 1.934 million barrels per day, Kazakhstan — 1.299 million barrels, Russia — 0.691 million, the United Arab Emirates — 0.386 million, Kuwait — 0.150 million, Oman — 0.097 million and Saudi Arabia — 0.015 million barrels per day during this period.
OPEC Meeting
At the same time, it is worth noting that back in 2023, Nigeria and Angola wanted to change their production quotas upward. Even then, the market was talking about the fact that such behavior of the participants could lead to the collapse of OPEC+, but there was no split. According to experts, such an outcome is also unlikely now.
— At the moment, Kazakhstan's withdrawal from OPEC+ is unlikely. The Minister's statement is, first of all, a political and diplomatic signal reflecting the country's internal economic priorities. It is important for Kazakhstan to demonstrate independence in energy policy to partners and investors, especially Western ones, especially against the background of rising budget costs and pressure on the foreign exchange market," says Dmitry Kasatkin, Managing Partner at Kasatkin Consulting.
In his opinion, a real exit from the agreement in the short term may harm the republic itself: the country is critically dependent on oil exports, and the OPEC+ mechanism ensures relative price stability. Moreover, Kazakhstan has repeatedly failed to comply with quotas in full, and within the framework of the alliance this was perceived with a certain assumption — such flexibility is the advantage of the format.
— As for other participants, the possibility of a chain reaction is not excluded, especially among countries with limited investment programs and budget deficits, for example, Angola has already announced its withdrawal. But such decisions will be targeted and are unlikely to undermine the structure of the alliance as a whole," the source told Izvestia.
According to Igor Yushkov, if the deal falls apart, an additional 4.5-4.8 million barrels of oil per day will appear on the market.
Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of WMT Consult, recalls that the OPEC+ format was formed in November 2016 precisely because of the dissatisfaction of many oil-producing countries with fuel prices.
— That year, the price of oil dropped to $30 per barrel. If the worst-case scenario develops, I will not rule out a drop in prices to such levels. Moreover, the market is already oversaturated. Moreover, against the background of tariff wars, the global market is revising down its demand forecasts," she said.
The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and OPEC did not respond to Izvestia's questions.
Is it possible to revise OPEC+ policy
Valery Andrianov, associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, is convinced that absolutely all OPEC+ member states, not just Kazakhstan, prioritize the interests of their country rather than the cartel.
— The existence of the alliance makes sense as long as it meets these interests. And they consist in maintaining consistently high oil prices and, as a result, replenishing the budget of the participating countries. I think Astana understands perfectly well that withdrawal from OPEC+, on the one hand, would become an undesirable precedent and weaken the cartel's position, and on the other hand, it would have a psychological effect that would lead to lower oil prices even before Kazakhstan "throws" additional volumes of raw materials onto the market. And the losses from such a move would be greater than the revenues from increased exports," the expert noted.
Ayrankol oil field
He believes that in this case we see, rather, an attempt to put pressure on the key members of the alliance — Russia and Saudi Arabia — in order to shift the main burden of curbing the production of raw materials onto them.
— They say that Riyadh and Moscow will suffer the most from the collapse of OPEC+ due to the largest scale of exports, so let them reduce production. By the way, it was these two countries that took on additional "self-restrictions" in addition to the officially established OPEC+ quotas. And this, apparently, allows individual participants in the deal to hope that they will finally assume the role of closing suppliers and will not even turn a blind eye to a slight increase in production by the "junior partners" in the alliance," added Valery Andrianov.
However, according to him, neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia are ready to further reduce their production to satisfy the appetites of other parties to the deal. Nevertheless, despite such demarches that weaken the alliance, its complete collapse would be unprofitable for all its participants, including Kazakhstan.
— Astana's position alone will not be a catalyst for a review of OPEC+ policy, but it is part of a broader trend. We are witnessing an increase in the divergence of interests within the alliance, especially between countries with large investment opportunities and states with limited production growth potential. Most likely, in the coming months, OPEC+ will be forced to revise the formula of participation and the approach to quotas — perhaps there will be more "customization" of conditions for individual countries, Dmitry Kasatkin believes.
He noted that OPEC+ remains an important coordination tool, but its sustainability increasingly depends on the ability to take into account the diversified national interests of the participants.
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