They will go north: The European Union is facing an expansion crisis
When accepting new members, the European Union changes its priorities towards Northern Europe. This is happening against the background of problems with the admission of the Balkan countries, Moldova and Ukraine. In contrast, Norway and Iceland look like more profitable partners for Brussels, and they can be accepted much faster than possible recipients of donor assistance hoping for European integration. Earlier it became known that Reykjavik and Oslo are discussing joining the EU due to the US tariff policy and Washington's claims to Greenland. So far, the Norwegian Embassy in Russia has told Izvestia that the country has not submitted an application. Iceland must decide whether it intends to follow this path, the EC told the publication. About whether Kiev and Chisinau will now join the EU against the background of "new candidates" — in the Izvestia article.
Norway and Iceland have not yet applied to the EU.
The discussion about Iceland and Norway joining the European Union began after the announcement by US President Donald Trump of the imposition of trade duties. Washington imposed tariffs of 10% against Reykjavik and 15% against Oslo. The total volume of trade in goods between the United States and Iceland in 2024 is estimated at $2.1 billion, with Norway at $11.2 billion, and Washington has a trade deficit with both countries. In addition, Iceland and Norway were alarmed by Trump's threats to take control of Greenland, which is now part of Denmark as an autonomous territory. Nevertheless, negotiations on joining the EU are not underway yet.
"Norway has not applied to join the European Union, and, therefore, accession negotiations are not underway," the Norwegian Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
At the same time, Oslo welcomes the EU's initiatives to assume greater responsibility for European security in order to complement NATO and support transatlantic cooperation.
— Norway and the EU also hold annual consultations on security and defense issues. The last round took place on December 5, 2024. In addition, Norway and the EU maintain close cooperation in the field of foreign policy," the Embassy of the country in the Russian Federation concluded.
Iceland must decide for itself whether it wants to join the European Union, the EC told Izvestia. They stressed that Reykjavik shares the EU's support for the multilateral system and often supports Brussels on foreign policy issues. The parties are also engaged in a dialogue on security and defense.
Norway and Iceland have already tried to join the EU in the past, but they have not been able to complete this process. In 1972, 53% of Norwegians voted against the country's accession to the European Economic Community. In 1994, 52.1% of voters rejected the EU application with a turnout of almost 90%. The current Norwegian government has stated that a new referendum on EU membership is possible within the next 10 years.
At the same time, Norway has already gone through the application review procedure, so it can be accepted into the EU quickly. The main stumbling block was the issue of ownership of resources, primarily oil and gas, Vadim Trukhachev, Associate professor at the Russian State University of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
"If they agree on oil, gas and fish, that the Norwegians will share this moderately with the rest of Europe, then entry is quite possible," the expert replied.
Iceland applied to join the European Union in 2009, but withdrew it in 2013 after the opposition won the elections. The current government plans to hold a new referendum on Iceland's EU membership in 2027. Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadouttir said the government wants to know if the country is ready to start negotiations with the union again. According to recent polls, 45% of Icelanders support EU membership, while 35% are against it.
Iceland has a painful experience of pyramid schemes involving European clients. By 2007, the assets of the country's banking sector had grown to 900% of GDP. However, at the beginning of the global financial crisis, the pyramid collapsed: Iceland's banks defaulted. In addition, the country is far from the EU, and if it joins, it will become the country with the smallest population there. By the way, Iceland, like Greenland now, was also part of the Danish Kingdom until it gained independence in 1944 during the presence of American troops.
The EU enlargement crisis
A total of nine countries now have EU candidate status. Among them, the Balkan States are Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro. In addition, such status has been granted to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Turkey, which has been awaiting accession since 1999 (the country applied for membership in 1987). Kosovo is considered a potential candidate, but five EU countries — Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Cyprus and Greece - do not recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republic.
However, each of the candidates has problems that prevent the completion of the European integration process. For example, Serbia considers Kosovo to be part of its territory, so joining the EU remains unlikely for it. Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be able to join the union without the consent of its entity, the Republika Srpska. Montenegro is the furthest along the path to unification, but Croatia may block its application due to a conflict over historical memory. Albania has not solved the problems of the black market and organized crime, which are why they do not want to admit it to the EU. North Macedonia has contradictions related to history and borders, with Bulgaria and Greece, without which Sofia and Athens will not agree to Skopje's accession to the EU.
Georgia has independently put on hold the process of European integration. In November 2024, its Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the suspension of EU accession negotiations until 2028. Earlier, the Georgian parliament adopted a law on foreign agents, which was opposed by the opposition. Then parliamentary elections were held, as a result of which the ruling Georgian Dream party retained power, but protests began in the country. Against this background, Brussels is discussing the introduction of sanctions against the Transcaucasian republic.
The prospects for Ukraine's accession to the EU have been discussed for many years, but substantive negotiations between Kiev and the EC began in the summer of 2024. Hungary and Slovakia openly oppose Kiev's European prospects. Budapest points to the problem of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia, as well as the violation of freedom of speech. Hungary has even announced a referendum on Ukraine's membership, and the European Commission will be informed about its results. Slovakia also believes that Kiev is not ready to participate in the EU, and Bratislava's position is influenced by Ukraine's decision to stop the transit of Russian gas through its territory.
In Moldova, there is no public consensus on joining the EU. In October 2024, a referendum was held in the country to consolidate the course of membership in the union in the Constitution. The amendments were supported by only 50.35% of those who voted, and the victory of supporters of European integration was achieved at the expense of votes from voters abroad. In addition, we must not forget about the unresolved conflict with the self-proclaimed Transnistria.
The countries of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine have an extremely vulnerable economic situation, and in any case these countries will be recipients of EU aid, not donors. On the contrary, Norway can make a significant contribution to the union's economy with its energy resources, especially against the background of the EC's intention to abandon Russian oil and gas by 2027. For example, in 2023, Norway supplied almost 30% of the total gas consumption to the EU, and after Oslo's accession, it will cooperate even more closely with Brussels.
— If an application is submitted, these countries will be accepted into the EU faster than current candidates. It mainly depends on Norway and Iceland themselves, and their situation is fundamentally different from that of the Balkans and Moldova," said Vadim Trukhachev.
Moreover, Norway's accession will provide the European Union with access to the Arctic, since Greenland, being part of Denmark, is not currently part of the EU. There will be no objections to Norway's entry within the union, but there may be contradictions over Iceland, the political scientist concluded.
At the same time, Iceland and Norway's accession to the EU may increase tensions between Washington and Brussels. Both countries are already coordinating their foreign policy with the Europeans and participating in some of the union's programs through the European Free Trade Association. Do not forget that Reykjavik and Oslo are part of the Schengen area. And with their accession to the EU, Brussels will become a new participant in the race for the Arctic and may try to attract Greenland to its side.
Russia is interested in ensuring that the process of Iceland's possible accession to the European Union is carried out in line with the development of international relations in the region and is not accompanied by drastic unilateral actions. It is obvious that Iceland's potential role in the EU in the field of energy, security and environmental sustainability in the Arctic will require more subtle multilateral coordination, the Russian Embassy in Reykjavik told Izvestia.
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