Check it seven times: the process of Moldova's accession to the EU is dragging on

Brussels intends to achieve Moldova's accession to the European Union. The European Commission told Izvestia that they expect to start negotiations on thematic clusters "as early as possible" — in 2025. At the same time, the specific date of the start of the dialogue is still unknown, earlier the EC expressed the hope that the first round would be held in the spring. The EU is currently checking the legislation of the republic. At the same time, there is a split within the ruling party in Moldova, and the authorities have increased pressure on the opposition ahead of the parliamentary elections. How the internal problems of the republic can affect the rapprochement with the union and what are the options for the development of events before the vote — in the material of Izvestia.

Moldova's integration into the EU

Officials from Brussels insist: "Moldova's future lies in the European Union." The European Commission told Izvestia that in 2024 Moldova "continued to demonstrate its determination to carry out reforms on the way to the EU," and after the interstate conference held in June 2024, the EU systematically checks Moldovan legislation for compliance with European standards. However, the union does not announce the date of the launch of negotiations on thematic clusters, the stage that precedes the European Commission's conclusion on Moldova's readiness to join the community.

"Provided Moldova fulfills all the conditions, the commission expects to open negotiations on clusters, starting from the basics, as soon as possible in 2025," the European Commission said.

The process of screening Moldovan legislation started at the beginning of last year. In order to join the EU, the republic must bring its regulations into line with EU legislation within the framework of six thematic clusters: "Core Values", "Internal Market", "Competition and inclusive Growth", "Green Agenda and Sustainable Connections", "Natural Resources, agriculture and Cohesion Policy" and finally, "External relations".

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According to media reports, the verification of three clusters has now been completed: "Core values", "Internal Market", and "External relations". The screening of the fourth one, "Competition and Inclusive Growth," is also due to end at the end of May. Bilateral meetings with representatives of Moldova will continue until the end of 2025.

In February, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos noted that the first round of negotiations on thematic clusters should take place this spring. Chisinau probably expected that the launch of consultations would happen sooner. Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi said in the winter that negotiations on EU accession would begin in the coming weeks.

Moldova received the EU candidate status in June 2022. The European Council made the decision to start negotiations on the republic's accession to the Union on December 14, 2023. On June 25, 2024, at an intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg, Brussels officially opened negotiations with Chisinau on EU accession. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that there is no shortcut to joining the union, because "the accession negotiations are designed to prepare candidates for the responsibilities of membership" in the EU.

Chisinau is optimistic. "We want to finish negotiations [on joining the EU] by the end of 2027 — this is a very serious, realistic plan. I want us not to lose this plan," Moldovan President Maia Sandu said earlier. In October 2024, in parallel with the presidential elections, the republic's authorities held a referendum on Moldova's accession to the EU, during which Chisinau managed to ensure that more than half of the voters supported the republic's European path.

The European Union continues to provide economic support to Moldova. So, he helps her overcome the energy crisis, the European Commission emphasized. In January, the EU provided €30 million in emergency support after the termination of gas transit through Ukraine. The parties also agreed on a strategy for energy independence and sustainability. It is backed by support in the amount of €250 million in 2025.

"In the long term, the strategy is aimed at separating Moldova from Russian energy supplies and integrating it into the EU energy market," the European Commission stressed.

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However, the country's entry into the union is difficult. The European Union has not expanded since 2013, and the United Kingdom withdrew from the community in 2020. The growing political division and economic stagnation do not allow the EU to accept new states. Any country's entry into the community may be blocked by any EU member state.

— Every important step in the accession process requires unanimity among the Member States. Political considerations such as regional stability, geopolitical factors and the EU's enlargement strategy may also affect the timing," Tomasz Zdechowski, a member of the European Parliament, told Izvestia. Therefore, although Moldova is making significant progress, the exact date [of the start of negotiations] will depend on the consensus among the EU member states and the country's ability to meet the established criteria.

In addition, Moldova itself still does not comply with the standards and procedures of the union, HSE analyst Nicole Bodisteanu said in a conversation with Izvestia. Among the main problems are the unwillingness of the economy to fully integrate into the European market, high levels of poverty, low access to educational and medical services, as well as tensions in relations with Transnistria and Gagauzia.

Also, in the context of corruption scandals surrounding the aid packages of USAID, the European Bank for Development and Reconstruction (EBRD), the EU is not pedaling Moldova's entry into its full membership. In addition, in the republic itself, on the eve of the parliamentary elections, there is a split in the ruling party.

"The popularity of the Action and Solidarity party is declining, while there is a split within it: for example, with enviable regularity in the Moldovan media, the latest events in the conflict between Sandu and the former head of the anti—corruption prosecutor's office Veronica Dragalin are noted," says Nicole Bodisteanu.

The situation in Moldova before the elections

Parliamentary elections in Moldova are scheduled for September 28. The authorities have already begun preparations for the vote, increasing pressure on opponents. The situation is reminiscent of 2024, when about six months before the presidential elections in Chisinau, cases began to be opened against opposition politicians.

One of the most high-profile cases was the detention of the head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, on March 25 at the Chisinau airport. She has repeatedly spoken out against European integration and for rapprochement with the Russian Federation. Hutsul is accused of making false statements in declarations, violating the procedure for managing the financial resources of election funds, illegally financing competitors and forgery of documents. The politician was placed under arrest for 20 days, while Moldovan prosecutors demanded to increase the period of arrest to 30. However, Bashkan was later placed under house arrest.

The Moldovan authorities have also accelerated the conduct of criminal cases against representatives of the Party of Socialists in order to sentence them as soon as possible.

Protests are becoming more frequent in the republic amid pressure on the pro-Russian opposition. Residents are unhappy with the falling standard of living, low wages, and rising energy prices after Moldova switched to purchasing gas and electricity from European suppliers. According to the results of the iData polling company, in February the support rating of the ruling party was 27.2%, which is 2.6% less than in December.

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In general, pressure on the pro-Russian opposition is unlikely to accelerate the rapprochement with Europe, says Nicole Bodisteanu. There are several possible scenarios ahead of the election. First, pro-Western forces remain in power, and Chisinau continues to receive assistance from the EU in the form of grants and is gradually moving closer to the union. The second option is for the opposition to come to power. Then the EU will not be involved in Moldovan affairs.

— We have already seen this with the example of the Dodon presidency. From 2016 to 2020, the volume of Western, and above all European, grants decreased significantly," says the expert.

In her opinion, Moldova's admission to the EU in the event of the end of the conflict in Ukraine may be completely frozen, following the model of Turkey and Serbia.