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- A pound of salt: London will try to disrupt the negotiations between Moscow and Washington
The UK and the EU are trying to prevent Putin's dialogue with Trump
Following French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to meet with White House Chief of Staff Donald Trump in Washington on February 27 to discuss the Ukrainian agenda and European defense. Like Macron, Starmer will undoubtedly try to dissuade Trump from dialogue with Moscow.
— Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz formed an anti-trumpist bloc. His task is to torpedo Trump's peace initiatives," former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov said in an interview with Izvestia.
Whether he will be able to do this is a difficult question. Macron's visit to Washington showed that Trump did not particularly listen to his French counterpart, who said on the eve of the trip that he would try to persuade the American leader to take a tougher stance against Vladimir Putin. Following the meeting with Macron, Trump said that negotiations with Russia are going very well, and pointed out the US interest in the "huge reserves" of rare earth metals of the Russian Federation. Earlier, the Russian leadership said it was ready for mutually beneficial cooperation with the Americans in this area.
Even if Starmer cannot influence Trump in person, the UK will still continue to sabotage the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, as it is interested in continuing the bloodshed and military operations in Ukraine, said Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime.
— The peculiarity of the UK is that it does many things not openly, but underground. She has serious levers of influence over the Ukrainian special services and military units, which she uses to ideally disrupt the dialogue between Moscow and Washington. They have demonstrated this many times. The Kursk adventure was an attempt to disrupt the future dialogue between the two countries. Just before the events in the Kursk region, there was a large prisoner exchange between Moscow and Washington after a long period of silence and lack of communication. Therefore, London is always much more comfortable when there is a wall of misunderstanding between the Russian Federation and the United States," he told Izvestia.
A new attempt to disrupt the negotiations
It is completely logical to expect attempts from the UK to torpedo the settlement in Ukraine, given that it has already managed to disrupt the negotiations in Istanbul in the spring of 2022. By the way, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly pointed out the special negative role of the then Prime Minister of the kingdom, Boris Johnson, in disrupting the negotiation process in Turkey. At the same time, according to the Russian leader, London then took this step after consulting with Washington, when the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, were in power.
The UK may challenge the administration's efforts According to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Trump is trying to resolve the Ukrainian conflict by increasing aid to Kiev so that it remains afloat and continues to fight.
— However, it is important to understand that London is unlikely to take such a step alone, but rather will expect a similar determination from European allies, who are now finding it extremely difficult to work out a unified position on increasing military spending. At the same time, it would be surprising if the UK did not try to disrupt the peace process again, as it did in 2022 during the negotiations in Istanbul," he said.According to the expert, the second way to disrupt, which is also on the agenda, is to send European troops to Ukraine, which is unacceptable for Russia and could put an end to any negotiations. "It is noteworthy that such an initiative comes from the United Kingdom, which is not a member of the community, and France, but has not found support from other EU members," Meloyan added.
Trump obviously does not like Europe's demonstrative desire to strengthen military support for Kiev, despite the renewed dialogue between the Kremlin and the White House. In this sense, it is significant that on February 26, the meeting between the head of European diplomacy, Kai Kallas, and the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, did not take place. It was canceled at the last moment, even though Callas had already arrived in Washington.
Open attempts to interfere with the Ukrainian settlement are also condemned in Moscow. "Europe, when the balance of political forces changes, immediately tries to undermine this trend, announces new large packages of military assistance to Kiev, incites it to continue fighting, and explicitly declares, as Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen did, that in this situation peace for Ukraine is worse than war," the Russian Foreign Minister said. Sergey Lavrov on February 26.
According to Richard Balfe, a member of the House of Lords of the British Parliament, Europe will still not be able to influence Trump on the Ukrainian issue.
— It was a war waged by the United States. If they resolve the situation, the EU will have no choice but to follow their example. Trump is right in saying that the senseless slaughter must stop and that Europe is mistakenly pandering to right—wing think tanks by supporting this confrontation," he told Izvestia.
The politician is sure that it's time to stop shooting and start a dialogue. At the same time, Russia, in his opinion, "should insist on the lifting of sanctions."
How can Russia and the USA respond to the UK
However, Russia has something to counter the machinations of the Europeans. So, to put pressure on London, Moscow can use the mechanism of regulating oil prices, which, in turn, affect the cost of gasoline and all consumer goods, which inevitably affects the economy of the Foggy Albion, says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
— Now, against the background of the strengthening of the ruble, some kind of oil fluctuation is possible, especially given that Russia plays a very important role in the OPEC+ mechanism, which actually works with oil prices, he said Izvestia.
Oil production in Tatarstan
In addition, Russia is capable of operating on the periphery of British interests and creating serious problems for Britain in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This may be in the form of strengthening political dialogue with local governments, or in the form of competition between Russian large corporations and British ones, or in the form of substitution of some types of energy by others.
— The role of Rosatom is great here, which is just replacing the energy management options offered by the British, mainly green technologies, wind generation, and so on. In addition, Russia can and most likely will raise the issue of Britain's destructive role on international platforms, primarily in BRICS, at the UN, at G20 meetings and in bilateral negotiations with the United States," the expert added.
As for the United States, despite the dissatisfied voices from the Europeans, Trump continues to demonstrate his pragmatic approach. So, on February 26, he again stated that things with Russia and Ukraine were "going very well." In particular, he assured that on February 28, Washington and Kiev will sign a major agreement on rare earth metals. "The previous administration put itself in a bad position, but we were able to conclude a deal according to which we can get our money back. We will get a lot of money in the future," he added.
The United States will demonstrate the same pragmatic approach with regard to London, if necessary. According to Ivan Loshkarev, the American administration solves such issues quite simply by using tariffs on certain goods. In the case of Great Britain, most likely, we will be talking about metallurgical products, possibly shipbuilding.
— If we are talking about any other instruments, this is primarily a change in US policy also on the British periphery. Uncoupling British and American cooperation in East Africa, Central America, and so on. Here, even the importance of the USA for the UK is stronger than the possible problems that Russia may create," he added.
Finally, Washington may create problems for London related to various restrictions on the movement of British citizens and the introduction of additional selection and control mechanisms.
The expert recalls that the American government has recently been very concerned about migration issues and is striving to switch to a so-called system based on the advantages and advantages of candidates for immigrants. "Here, perhaps, in some kind of repressive manner, restrictions will be imposed on the UK. For example, it is a demonstrative measure that does not affect a significant part of the British," he concluded.If we talk about trade, then on February 26, Trump has already warned: the United States will impose duties on the EU of 25% not only on cars, but also on "everything else."
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
