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- Record, but: unemployment could rise in 2025 for the first time since the start of the decade
This year unemployment may increase for the first time since 2020. It is currently at a record low (2.3%), but by the end of the year it will be 2.6%, analysts surveyed by the Central Bank predicted. Companies are running out of resources to lure employees with salary increases, and digitalization is also becoming more and more active. In addition, against the background of high rates and tax increases, even large corporations are allowing layoffs. However, we should hardly be afraid of massive difficulties in finding a job: the labor market will only come into balance, which should also slow down inflation. Which professions will be in the least demand, and where, on the contrary, wages will continue to grow - in the material of "Izvestia".
Why unemployment will grow in Russia
In 2025, the unemployment rate will rise from the current 2.3% to 2.6%, according to the results of the February macroeconomic survey of the Central Bank based on the responses of 27 economists ("Izvestia" studied it). The growth may occur for the first time since pandemic 2020, when the total share of the unemployed in the economy rose to 5.9% at the end of the year. The rate then gradually declined until it reached a historic low of 2.3% at the end of 2024.
By 2027, analysts polled by the regulator expect unemployment to rise to the level of 2023 - 2.9%. "Izvestia" asked the Ministry of Labor to assess the probability of unemployment growth in the Russian Federation.
Unemployment reached the "bottom" last year - in the future the labor market is expected to cool down following the expected slowdown of the economy, says Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam. According to her, this is facilitated by business optimization against the background of high key interest rate (21% as of February 2025) and growing tax burden (collection from profits increased to 25% this year).
By December 2024, the financial result of companies has already decreased by 15% year-on-year - companies have fewer and fewer opportunities to increase salaries and invest in development, the expert said.
The imminent growth of unemployment is already evidenced by certain signs: employment services are receiving fewer vacancies, and the media are increasingly reporting about layoffs in large corporations, added Olga Belenkaya. For example, a letter from the deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom Elena Ilyukhina to the head of the company Alexei Miller with a proposal to drastically reduce the number of the central office of the company from 4 thousand to 2.5 thousand people was made public earlier. The company then confirmed the authenticity of the document.
- Most likely, unemployment will grow, but slowly. This will be due to the development of digitalization and automation of business processes - for example, in trade, which is moving to an online format. In addition, a number of companies are freezing or closing long-term projects due to expensive loans and lower demand," explained Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Another possible factor is the chance to release some of the labor resources that have been transferred to the armed forces or defense industrial complex (DIC) enterprises since the beginning of the SWO, Olga Belenkaya noted. Recently, the authorities have been actively discussing the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. If everything goes according to the positive scenario, there may indeed be more workers on the market.
Also in such conditions it is not excluded further attraction of migrants and the return of some re-located workers, added Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
Which specialists will find it more difficult to find a job?
The acute shortage of personnel in recent years has provoked an increase in wage competition between companies - the so-called "wage race". Because of this, salaries were raised much faster than labor productivity, said Olga Belenkaya. As a result, this led to high inflation and hindered the growth of production.
In 2023 and 2024, real wages (adjusted for inflation) grew above 8% annually, but, as expected in the Central Bank, in 2025, the figure will slow down significantly - to 3.3%, wrote "Izvestia". But everything will depend on the specific industry: where the competition for labor is higher, they will offer more.
Most likely, those who work in the defense industry, manufacturing sector, telecommunications, IT-companies will not remain unemployed, said Yulia Dolzhenkova from the Finance University. Other areas with minimal unemployment now are cybersecurity, medicine, education and construction, said Tatiana Ushkats, an expert of the PFUR Economics Department. Most likely, the need for such personnel will remain in the coming years.
As of February 2025, the fastest income growth rate is among engineers and HR managers, as well as among the personnel of the transportation and banking industries, SuperJob shared.
- Meanwhile, in capital-intensive sectors, such as construction and development, the number of new projects is decreasing - because of this, both hiring and salary growth rates may decrease. At the same time, the demand for employees in consumer segments (e.g. food production) will remain stable," said Dmitry Puchkov, Managing Director of Avito Rabota.
The need for people may decrease at enterprises of light industry (cuts may be, for example, in the production of clothes and shoes), added Yulia Dolzhenkova.
Demand for salespeople is decreasing more and more - as online shopping becomes more popular and all cash operations become automated, added Tatiana Ushkats. Also in the future, due to the development of unmanned vehicles, the demand for logisticians and drivers may decrease, she estimated. Earlier, the Ministry of Labor predicted the greatest reduction in demand in the next five years for civil servants and salespeople.
The natural and optimal level of unemployment for the economy is considered to be 3-5%, said Tatyana Ushkats. Such indicators will allow the country to grow without excessive inflationary pressure, she explained.
However, there is also hidden unemployment - it includes those who are not registered at the labor exchange, do not have a permanent job (freelancers), are not officially employed, the expert added. Their share grows during economic turbulence, when companies try to save people by transferring them to a part-time schedule or reducing their workload. Freedom Finance Global estimates that hidden unemployment in Russia reaches 5-10%.
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