Thoughtful partners: the EAEU economy is expected to grow three times faster than Europe's GDP

The economies of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries will grow at an average annual rate of 4.5% until 2030, the RAS has predicted. This is three times higher than in the eurozone - according to the ECB forecasts, GDP there is expected to grow by no more than 1.5% annually. Russia is reorienting itself to the part of the world where the economy is developing and growing - President Vladimir Putin has said this many times. The EAEU countries will support the availability of energy resources, the provision of agricultural products, as well as the exchange of labor resources in the conditions of open borders between the members of the association. At the same time, the West will be pressured by new US duties and another round of trade war in general. How realistic is the RAS forecast - in the material of "Izvestia".

How GDP growth of the EAEU countries will change in 2025-2030

The dynamics of growth of the economies of the EAEU countries (the association includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia) until 2030 can be higher than 4.5% annually. This follows from the article of experts of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Possibilities of Labor Productivity and Output Growth in the EAEU Countries" ("Izvestia" has studied it). The editorial board sent an inquiry to the RAS.

These are high rates. For comparison, according to the latest forecasts of the ECB, economic growth in the EU countries for the next three years will not exceed 1.5%. According to the experts interviewed by Izvestiya, in the period from 2028 to 2030, the increase in the indicator will be comparable - no higher than 1.8%.

Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Eibner-Pressefoto/Florian

Thus, Russia is reorienting itself towards the part of the world that is developing at a faster pace. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken about this. For example, in December at the forum "Russia Calling!" he said:

- We are naturally oriented to the places where we see growth, where the number of our partners is increasing and where we do not look back at shouts from the outside.

According to the head of state, Russia has been doing this since the 2000s, and sanctions have only accelerated this process.

What will ensure the growth of the EAEU economy

The RAS study notes that the main driver of the EAEU economy will be the development of the labor market - the states need to increase productivity. This can be done through technological improvements and motivation. The dynamics of the number of employed population is also important. By the way, in Russia unemployment is already at a record low of 2.3%.

The EAEU countries benefit from the fact that the borders between them are open: people can move freely and find work where they will be in demand, says Galina Ryazanova, associate professor at the State University of Management. As a result, employment in all the countries of the association is growing.

The second important element that should support the economies of the unification countries is the development of manufacturing and agriculture, said Tatiana Podolskaya, head of the International Economic Relations Department at the South Russian Institute of Management of the Presidential Academy. The states are already leaders in the extraction of mineral fertilizers, oil, gas and uranium - using these elements will accelerate the development of GDP.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Maksim Blinov

In particular, Russia is reorienting its energy exports to the East. On February 10, China imposed duties of 15% on U.S. liquefied natural gas and coal - this makes supplies from Russia to China more in demand.

The third factor is its convenient geographical location, which allows EAEU countries to ensure transit flows with each other and between the West and the East.

Further mutual integration will also support the economy in the union. Trade turnover between the member states is already growing - for 10 months of 2024 it increased by almost 10% and amounted to $78.6 billion, Deputy Economy Minister Dmitry Volvach told Izvestia earlier.

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At the same time, the EU economy is slowing down. First of all, because of the energy crisis and rising electricity prices. According to Tatyana Podolskaya, only the resumption of imports of cheap Russian energy resources will be able to save the eurozone countries from recession by the 2030s. The focus on green energy will not help the EU, as resources from renewable sources are 30-40% more expensive for Europeans than competitors from Asia and America due to their geographical location, she added.

In addition, eurozone GDP growth is being stymied by US President Donald Trump's foreign policy and a new round of trade wars. The US is likely to continue threatening to impose duties and under this pretext will insist that the EU reduce its dependence on the PRC as a supplier and sales market, Izvestia wrote earlier.

Photo: Global Look Press/Cfoto

In addition, digitalization is now one of the key factors of economic growth in all parts of the world. Only the EU and the EAEU are developing in this direction in different ways.

- The EU has a high level of development of financial technologies, artificial intelligence and automation. However, this growth is slowed down due to strict regulation - in particular, significant taxes on digital companies. In order to avoid such taxes, companies themselves, among other things, transport their developments outside the eurozone - to the United States or Asia," explained Mikhail Kosov, Head of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian Economic University.

What risks the EAEU economy may face

The RAS forecast of 4.5% annual GDP growth in the EAEU countries looks positive, experts say. For example, the expectations of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development are much more modest: they expect an increase of no more than 2.8% until 2027. However, the authorities are always more restrained in their estimates: in 2024, the Ministry of Economic Development expected Russia's GDP to grow by 3.9%, and in the end it amounted to 4.1%.

A 4.5% increase in the economy of the EAEU countries is possible if a number of risks are not realized. Among them is the geopolitical situation in the region and the world - in particular, new sanctions against Russia and Belarus, as well as interstate conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, listed Marina Amurskaya, Head of the Department of International Business at the Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Besides, now Russia and other states of the Union are still dependent on technology imports, emphasized Tatyana Podolskaya. The ban on the supply of high-tech equipment and developments implies the creation of our analogs, which requires time and investment.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Stringer

Another threat is the collapse of prices for fuel resources. In particular, although the economies of Russia and Kazakhstan are diversifying their incomes, they still depend heavily on exports of oil, gas, metals and fertilizers. A drop in commodity prices or lower demand on world markets could lead to a reduction in budget revenues and investment, says Mikhail Kosov of Plekhanov Russian Economic University.

In addition, dependence on the Russian ruble makes the economies of the EAEU countries vulnerable to its fluctuations. In case of financial crises or even more sanctions, the national currency may weaken - this will affect the economies of allies, he added. Therefore, the countries are already switching to trading in national currencies and other instruments.