Tracking sanctions: Russia's EAEU partners may fall under EU restrictions
The new EU anti-Russian sanctions packages may include restrictive measures against Russia's partner countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), MEPs from France and Slovakia have told Izvestia. In particular, we may be talking about secondary sanctions against companies from Kazakhstan. The EU is now preparing the 15th and 16th package of restrictions. It is possible that additional restrictions will also affect UN officials, athletes and figures of the Russian Orthodox Church. On the likely content of the new packages of sanctions and how Moscow may react to them - in the material "Izvestia".
The EU considers sanctions against the EAEU countries
New EU sanctions may affect Russia's partners in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), in particular Kazakhstan, said "Izvestia" member of the European Parliament from France Thierry Mariani.
- The European Union is increasingly trying to fight attempts to circumvent sanctions. Because if they don't work, someone else is inevitably to blame. So it is quite possible that there will be such restrictions, moreover, at the moment there are already imposed restrictions that relate to third countries or other companies," he said.
A number of companies from Kazakhstan have already fallen under EU sanctions from the 13th package, adopted in February 2023. The EU believes they are circumventing trade restrictions imposed against Russia. On November 7, the UK updated its list of sub-sanctioned companies suspected of supplying components for Russian military-industrial complex products. They included seven companies from Kazakhstan.
Czech MEP Ivan David also considers it "very likely" that the EU will take measures in the next package of sanctions against companies from the EAEU or other countries that cooperate closely with Russia inthe economic sphere.
- There is a lot of frustration in Brussels about the circumvention of restrictions and the ineffectiveness of sanctions measures against Russia. The EU does not want to lose face and is forced to adopt more and more new sanctions," he emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia.
This scenario is also supported by the fact that on November 28, the European Parliament is to vote on a resolution that, among other things, calls on the European Council to expand sanctions against Russia, Belarus and "third countries, as well as organizations that supply dual-use technologies and military equipment to the Russian military complex."
It is small Kazakhstani companies that may fall under the sanctions, because large businesses and big banks fulfill the EU and US sanctions requirements, Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), explained to Izvestia.
- Pressure on Kazakhstan and especially on Kazakhstan's business and financial sector has been exerted by the EU and the US for a long time. I do not rule out that such threats will be heard, especially since the European Union regulations prescribe a mechanism that suggests that countries are first warned that export restrictions may be imposed on them if re-exports take place, and only then are restrictions imposed," the expert explained.
Indeed, since April 2023, EU Special Envoy for Sanctions David O'Sullivan has already visited Kazakhstan three times. During his latest visit on June 18, he recalled the Union's concern about the possible re-export of military goods to Russia through Kazakhstan, which are under the restrictions of the G7 countries. He specified that it is a list of 50 items, which, according to his estimates, account for only 1% of the total trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Russia. As noted by O'Sullivan, the EU is grateful to the authorities of the country for guarantees that Kazakhstan "will not become a platform for circumventing sanctions.
New packages of anti-Russian sanctions
EU representatives have repeatedly announced the preparation of the 15th package of anti-Russian sanctions. According to Bloomberg, it will be approved by the end of December: it will be directed against tankers carrying Russian oil. In turn, Reuters, citing sources, reported that in early 2025, the EU countries plan to agree on the next (16th) large-scale list of sanctions against Russia and adopt it when the presidency of the EU passes from Hungary to Poland. It may include restrictions against Russian LNG and a ban for third countries on re-exporting a number of European goods to Russia.
It should be noted that the already mentioned European Parliament resolution calls for "a complete embargo on imports of Russian fossil fuels and LNG," as well as a call for a further reduction in the prices of Russian oil products, thus depriving Russia of money to finance a special military operation.
At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on November 27 that the new EC, which will take office on December 1, intends to "expel Russian natural gas from the European market" and actively invest in green energy to lower prices for industry and European consumers.
Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen
However, even before the SWO, the head of Eurodiplomacy, Josep Borrell, called diversification of gas supply sources a key task for the EU.
- They are threatening, but they cannot refuse, because Russian fuel is cheap, supplies are reliable and the EU economy is largely tied to them. But they will go for it, even if it is tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot, " Ivan Timofeev explained.
It is worth recalling that the rise in energy prices in Europe, associated with the reduction of Russian gas supplies, has already led to the closure of a large number of businesses. For example, in December 2023, more than 50 fertilizer plants in Europe stopped working, as 75% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizers is formed on the basis of gas prices.
As a retaliatory response, Moscow each time expands the list of EU representatives who are banned from entering Russian territory. The last time was on June 24, 2024, following the release of the EU's 14th package of sanctions. In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin explained that it is not always beneficial for Russia to act according to the talion principle, i.e. a symmetrical response to sanctions.
- We should look at what is beneficial and disadvantageous for us - in general," the Russian leader said at the time.
Who else may be affected by the anti-Russian sanctions?
European sanctions may affect not only business representatives. Thus, on November 18, after a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the EU, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that there are proposals to add UN officials, as well as athletes and church figures to the sanctions lists. The diplomat, however, emphasized that Budapest would not allow restrictions that would contradict the country's interests, as well as its energy and national security.
Interestingly, in 2022, the EU had already considered the possibility of imposing sanctions against Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia as part of the 6th package, but it was Hungary that opposed such a measure. Josep Borrel then expressed regret over this position, saying that "religious leaders should not be spared from responsibility" for supporting the special operation.
However, as Slovak MEP Milan Ugrik told Izvestia , the Russian Orthodox Church "has not yet been mentioned in Brussels' plans". Although, according to his assessment, the pressure on the Russian Orthodox Church fits into the pro-American policy of the EU.
- The most aggressive elements of the European bureaucracy, close to overseas corporations and serving the interests of the United States, are trying to use any opportunity to break relations between Russia and Europe," stated Milan Ugrick.
These are mostly people whose popularity, careers and profits depend solely on media and other support for these interests, the politician explained.
