Reversible connection: the EU commented on the possibility of lifting sanctions against Russia

Any EU restrictive measures against Russia may be lifted, but only after the conflict with Ukraine is over, the European Commission has told Izvestiya. For the time being, the EU should not expect any easing of pressure on Russia. On the contrary, a new package of sanctions is expected in January. Brussels is thus trying to show that its position on the crisis will not change, despite Donald Trump's rise to power in the United States. Moreover, a source in European diplomatic circles admitted that some countries are even ready to increase military aid to Kiev. The expert community also does not rule out such a scenario, noting that the U.S. will not completely abandon its support for Kiev. Izvestia reports on the EU's sanctions and military struggle with Moscow and its dual nature.

New sanctions against Russia

Visa restrictions on Russians and other sanctions may be canceled if Moscow meets a number of conditions, the EC said.

- All restrictive decisions of the EU are reversible. In the case of measures taken against Russia, they can be reviewed by the EU member states as soon as Russia stops constant violations of the UN Charter, international law and its own international obligations," Peter Stano, a representative of the EU foreign policy service, told Izvestia.

We shall remind you that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized that the special military operation in Ukraine is being carried out in full compliance with the UN Charter. In May 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained that the SWO was being carried out on the basis of Article 51 of the UN Charter, which provides for the right to individual and collective self-defense, and the UN Security Council was notified of this in due time.

The EU's decision to suspend the simplified visa regime agreement with Russia, which came into effect in September 2022, was just one of the few anti-Russian moves by Brussels. Since the beginning of the ETS, the EU authorities have imposed 14 packages of sanctions against Russia and, judging by the statements of European officials and Western media, they are not going to stop. Thus, the outgoing head of the European Union diplomacy Josep Borrell said on November 9 that the community is preparing the 15th list of measures and is going to toughen the fight against circumvention of sanctions.

If Bloomberg is to be believed, the nearest package aimed against tankers carrying Russian oil will be approved by the end of December. At the same time, citing sources, the agency reports that the EU countries plan to agree on a large-scale sanctions list against Russia in early 2025 and adopt it when the EU presidency passes from Hungary to Poland. It may include additional trade restrictions, as well as measures to increase duties on Russian agricultural goods.

The EU wants to increase support for Kiev

The statements of US President-elect Donald Trump are also of particular concern to the EU. On November 14, he promised to work hard "to work on Russia and Ukraine" to put an end to the loss of life. Members of the future Trump administration had also earlier actively expressed their opposition to Biden's Ukraine policy. At the same time, a few days earlier, Josep Borrell called on the EU to support Kiev "in any scenario." By the way, on November 18, the EU foreign ministers will gather in Brussels to discuss relations between the EU and the United States after the election victory of Donald Trump, and at the same time the 15th package of anti-Russian sanctions.

A source in European diplomatic circles confirmed to Izvestia that some countries are ready to step up military support for Kiev in case Washington under Trump stops helping Ukraine. He emphasized the principled nature of this issue, as Europe's security, in his opinion, depends on Ukraine. By the way, on November 15, for the first time since 2022, there was a telephone conversation between Chancellor of the FRG Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin. According to the German cabinet, Scholz demanded that Putin end the conflict and withdraw troops, saying that Germany would continue to support Ukraine for as long as necessary. Putin, however, emphasized that possible agreements should take into account Russian Federation's security interests, proceed from the new territorial realities, and most importantly eliminate the root causes of the conflict, the Kremlin said.

Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia that the EU will increase its share of military support for Kiev, especially given Brussels' intentions to shift the bloc's economy to a war footing.

- U.S. military aid to Kiev exceeds the amount of aid provided by the European Union. However, the support of European NATO members should not be underestimated. For example, France supplies Ukraine with a number of weapons systems, in particular, self-propelled artillery and wheeled tanks. The same can be said about Germany. But, let's say, France will not be able to replace the amount of U.S. aid alone, and the U.S. aid will not stop completely, because it is approved by law. The new president can make adjustments, but there will be no radical reduction. Therefore, if the Europeans are talking about strengthening military aid in case the USA refuses, this is more of a rhetorical exercise, as Washington will not stop helping Ukraine," he emphasized.

Be that as it may, the Biden administration currently intends to spend all $6 billion allocated by Congress to Ukraine "on time and in full," that is, before Donald Trump's inauguration in January. At the same time, the Pentagon clarified that part of the military aid promised by Biden to Zelensky, Ukraine will receive after Trump assumes his presidential duties.

EU double standard policy

It should not be forgotten that on December 1, Josep Borrell will be replaced as head of EU diplomacy by former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. The Kremlin earlier characterized her statements to Moscow as "absolutely intransigent and sometimes even denudedly Russophobic". They do not hope for normalization of relations with the EU under Kallas. As proof of this thesis, Kallas recently called on the frozen Russian assets to be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the Center for International Security of IMEMO RAS, believes that the arrival of Kai Kallas will not fundamentally change the ability of EU institutions to support Ukraine.

- If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine significantly or completely, then, of course, Europe will need to change its approach and its position. It will not have the strength to do this alone, and this is already being felt now, even with the United States' assistance to Kiev. Europe will have to adjust to U.S. policy. This will be a turning point in this protracted conflict, which has acquired a pan-European character," he told Izvestia.

However, we should not forget that Kalas's Russophobia did not prevent her husband from continuing to do business with Russian partners after the start of the SWO. As Estonian journalists found out in August 2023, the company Stark Logistics, in which Arvo Hallik owned a 24% stake, continued to be engaged in cargo transportation between Estonia and Russia, despite public statements about the termination of this work. The firm explained at the time that Russian citizens were not among the beneficiaries and that it was only one Estonian client whom Stark Logistics had helped to fulfill its previous, valid and legitimate international contracts with Russia. Kalas herself justified herself by saying that she had no idea about her husband's business.

By and large, the EU as a whole has adopted the same double standard stance. While sending weapons to Ukraine, its countries will continue to buy gas from Russia. Thus, as of August, France and Spain were among its main importers. Between January and August, Russia supplied the European Union (EU) with €9 billion worth of gas, with pipeline gas becoming the main export. It accounted for €4.6 billion and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for €4.4 billion. The same applies to Russian fertilizers. Germany, one of Ukraine's main allies, increased its imports of nitrogen fertilizers by 334% from July 2023 to June 2024. And the EU as a whole imported five times more than a year earlier.

In any case, in its fall economic forecast for 2025-2026, the European Commission assumes that the conflict in Ukraine will continue, geopolitical tensions in the region will persist, and therefore sanctions will continue to apply throughout the forecast period. However, as Vladimir Putin confirmed at a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, Russia is ready for such a scenario. "The volume of sanctions, punitive measures applied to our country is unparalleled in history. Our opponents assumed that they would deal Russia a crushing, knockout blow, from which it would simply not recover and would cease to be one of the key elements of international life <...>. The world needs Russia. And no decisions by either the bosses in Washington or Brussels can change that," the Russian leader emphasized.