A matter of bargaining: Turkey ponders lifting the embargo on Israel
Turkey is considering lifting the embargo on its exports to Israel. As Ankara explained, they are ready to do so if "the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip becomes sustainable. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the Turkish leader thus wants to gain the support of U.S. President Donald Trump, who is known for his pro-Israeli stance.
Softening the rhetoric
"If peace [in the Gaza Strip] is permanent, we could resume trade with Israel. If the reason that allowed [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government] to take a certain stance is removed, trade relations with Israel could normalize again," said Nail Olpak, chairman of Turkey's Foreign Economic Relations Committee (DEIK).
Against this backdrop, rumors have circulated that Ankara is not against resuming diplomatic contacts with Israel, ties with which have been cut off due to Tel Aviv's military campaign in the Gaza Strip.
According to the i24 TV channel, Baku, which has good relations with both Ankara and Tel Aviv, played a big role in this. Azerbaijan tried to mediate between Turkey and Israel, so in December, Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev first flew to Jerusalem and then traveled to Ankara.
The Turkish Ministry of Trade imposed sanctions against Tel Aviv last spring - the export ban concerned 54 items of industrial goods from aluminum, steel and some types of industrial machinery. As it was explained then, "until the end of hostilities in Gaza."
On January 19, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel officially came into effect. According to the agreements, land channels for international humanitarian aid to Gaza were opened, and the intensity of hostilities decreased.
Experts do not rule out that the softening of rhetoric against Israel may mean Ankara's desire to establish relations with the 47th American leader Donald Trump. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he held interim talks with the president-elect, the parties agreed to "continue contacts with the new team in the White House on all problematic issues."
Beneficial for both countries
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gates", noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Turkey is basically trying to act as a defender of the Palestinian people and Islamic values, but in fact it is demonstrating pragmatism.
- In any case, Turkey will take its own way. Diplomatic relations, trade, economic relations will still be restored," the political scientist believes.
According to him, Israel may soon become one of the most serious gas exporters.
- I mean the fields found off the Israeli and Lebanese coasts "Leviathan-1", "Leviathan-2", plus the fields "Aphrodite" near Cyprus, some gas fields in Egypt. There are plans to export this gas to Europe. And Turkey would very much like to join the export in one way or another," the expert believes.
He added that at the same time attempts are being made to establish relations with Libya, to share the Mediterranean Sea with it, but all this is in the context of a future possible gas pipe from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe, believes Andrei Ontikov.
In his opinion, given the fact that Turkey is prophesied to play the role of a gas hub, this is another argument in favor of a return and gradual normalization of economic relations between Turks and Israelis.
- In addition, there are a number of other things on which the two countries cooperate, so there is nothing surprising here. As soon as the conflict subsides, the Turks will immediately begin to build ties with the Israelis economically, as, in fact, the Israelis will begin to establish relations with the Turks, because contacts are mutually beneficial," the analyst summarized.
A signal for Trump
Razil Guzaerov, a junior researcher at the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Institute of National Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that despite constant criticism and accusations of Israel's aggressive and inhumane policy, Turkey did not seek to break off contacts with it completely.
- Even after the outbreak of hostilities, the level of trade relations was maintained despite the active anti-Israeli rhetoric of Turkish President Erdogan," the political scientist noted.
Moreover, the delivery of Azerbaijani oil to Israel, which goes through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, is reloaded on tankers in the Turkish port of Ceyhan and sent to Israeli ports, has not stopped.
- The serious difference between the discourse of the official Turkish authorities and its actual actions caused misunderstanding among the supporters of Palestine in the country. The situation began to be actively used by the opposition to criticize Recep Tayyip Erdogan," the expert explained.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan
According to him, for the current government, which "achieved inconclusive results in both presidential and municipal elections," it meant the possibility of losing even more supporters.
- Against this background, Ankara officially announced the suspension of trade relations with Israel. The main condition for lifting the embargo is the end of hostilities in Gaza. The statement of Nail Olpak, Chairman of the Committee for Foreign Economic Relations of Turkey, on the likely resumption of trade relations coincided with the announcement of Israel on the entry into force of the ceasefire, - says Razil Guzaerov.
The analyst believes that under the conditions of the long-term nature of this ceasefire should expect the lifting of the embargo, which brings Turkey its own economic losses. Earlier Ankara was among the top 5 trade partners of Israel.
Now the focus of the Turkish leadership in the region is Syria and the fight against Kurdish militias. Guzayerov is sure that the conflict in the Gaza Strip is not the key issue for Turkey at the current stage.
- It is facing the issue of consolidating its influence in Syria and supporting its new authorities. Therefore, the statement on Israel can be seen as a signal to the new U.S. leadership about the readiness to dialog and take into account mutual interests," the political scientist concluded.
