- Статьи
- World
- Contributing to the freeze: how the truce between Israel and Hamas will work and how long it will last
Contributing to the freeze: how the truce between Israel and Hamas will work and how long it will last
The agreement on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages entered into force on January 19. Hamas told Izvestia that the deal was made possible thanks to US President-elect Donald Trump. As part of it, the Palestinian movement has already released three hostages in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners serving time in Israeli jails. Meanwhile, resignations have already begun in the leadership of the Jewish state to protest the end of the war. Izvestia looked into why Israel agreed to the truce and whether there are risks of the agreements collapsing.
Hamas sees Trump as a key factor in the deal
The deal on the release of hostages from the Gaza Strip came into force on January 19. However, Sunday morning was tense: Israel did not receive the list of hostages that Hamas was supposed to release at the scheduled time. The IDF began striking Gaza, and the Palestinian movement attributed the delay to "technical difficulties." After 9:30 Moscow time, when the truce was due to take effect, Israeli attacks killed at least 19 people and wounded 36 others.
However, the list was later still handed over. Ronen Gonen, 24, Emily Teila Damari (28) and Doron Steinbrecher (31) were released from captivity. The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect at 12:15 Moscow time. In parallel, thousands of refugees began to return to their homes.
Around 18:00 (Moscow time), the staff of the International Committee of the Red Cross took hostages from representatives of the military wing of Hamas. The ICRC then handed the Israeli women over to the Israeli army, the IDF said. The freed hostages later arrived in Israeli territory.
Transfer of hostages to members of the International Committee of the Red Cross as part of the ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel, January 19, 2025
Hamas told Izvestia that the agreement made possible the intervention of US President-elect Donald Trump. On the first day, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the return of the three hostages from Gaza.
- "The deal would not have been possible if not for Trump's pressure on [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu," Hamas spokesman in Lebanon Ahmed Abdel Hadi told Izvestia.
US President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk and CIA chief William Burns have repeatedly said they are paying much attention to resolving the conflict. Blinken has visited the region 12 times and Burns has made approximately 20 trips. Nevertheless, the results of American diplomacy have remained inconclusive until recently. It is possible that Donald Trump's statements about possible consequences if the hostages are not released before his inauguration have changed the dynamics of the negotiations. At the same time, the "Trump effect" is not the only factor that contributed to the conclusion of the deal.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
The weakening of Hezbollah and the elimination of the threat from the north allowed Israel to focus its resources on Gaza. Hamas, having lost its Lebanese ally, was left virtually alone against the Israeli army. All this was accompanied by an unprecedented weakening of the pro-Iranian "axis of resistance" in the region.
Against this background, the Israeli military stepped up strikes in northern Gaza, especially in Beit Hanoun. The military wing of Hamas, having lost its considerable potential, turned into scattered guerrilla cells.
Israeli army personnel, Beit Hanoun
The economic difficulties Israel faced after 15 months of war also contributed to the deal. The Central Bureau of Statistics estimated that the country's GDP grew by only 0.3% between April and June 2024, compared to a projected 1.2%. In addition to the weakening economy, the population has also faced steep inflation. Meanwhile, the Israeli Central Bank is already warning of possible interest rate hikes.
Agreement to release hostages from the Gaza Strip
Following news of a possible truce, the Israeli prime minister expectedly faced criticism of his own. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned, and the Otzma Yehudit party, which he leads, left Netanyahu's government coalition in protest of the agreement to release hostages from the Gaza Strip. Two other ministers from the right-wing party - Jerusalem and Israeli Heritage Minister Amihai Eliyahu and Negev, Galilee and National Sustainability Development Minister Yitzhak Wasserlaf - also submitted their resignations. Nevertheless, Netanyahu can avoid a domino effect, as he will continue to control the Knesset majority despite Otzma Yehudit's withdrawal from the government coalition.
Another far-right finance minister, Betzalel Smotrich, has threatened to topple Netanyahu altogether if the war does not resume. "I will topple the government if we don't return to fighting in the Gaza Strip in a way that allows us to fully control and govern it," the minister told Army Radio.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
The first phase of the deal includes a six-week ceasefire with the gradual withdrawal of IDF troops from central Gaza, as well as the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. At this stage, 33 captives in Gaza are to be released, including all women, children and men over the age of 50.
Negotiations on the implementation of the second phase will begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire. It is expected to include the release of all hostages, the establishment of a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of IDF forces.
The deal is aimed at releasing not only the living hostages, but also the return of the bodies of the dead, and "at all periods." For example, the swap includes an Israeli of Ethiopian descent, Aver Mengistu, and an Israeli citizen with Arab roots, Hisham al-Sayyid, who has been held by Hamas since 2014.
IDF soldiers
Palestinian security expert Mohammed al-Masri told Izvestia that the deal includes US guarantees to Hamas and other Palestinian groups that members of their leadership will not be prosecuted. More than 200 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid have already entered Gaza through the border with Egypt.
- Two million Palestinians in Gaza have been subjected to hunger, disease. There is a major humanitarian crisis there. That is why it is necessary to get the aid trucks in as soon as possible. Hospitals are preparing to receive a large number of Palestinians," Egyptian expert Ashraf Sanger told Izvestia.
The viability of the deal between Israel and Hamas will largely depend on the latter's fulfillment of its obligations. The Israeli authorities emphasize: compliance with the ceasefire and possible expansion of the deal are directly linked to real progress in the release of citizens.
At the same time, the key issue remains the condition of the hostages themselves. There has been very limited information about them during their captivity, and there is no certainty about the number of captives alive. According to Israeli media reports, 35 of the 94 hostages may have died. This poses serious risks to the deal: if more hostages are found to have died, it could trigger a crisis of confidence and jeopardize the fragile ceasefire process. In the midst of the most difficult negotiations, even minimal deviations from the terms of the deal could quickly derail the release of the captives.
Nevertheless, for the time being, the armed conflict that has lasted more than 15 months has been frozen. As a result of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, about 1,200 people were killed and 251 more were taken hostage. The retaliatory actions of the Israeli army in Gaza led, according to the local Ministry of Health, to the death of more than 45.6 thousand people, injured more than 108 thousand.
Russia hopes for the priority release of its compatriots. Recall that Russian citizen Alexander Trufanov is being held in Gaza by the military wing of Islamic Jihad. Maxim Kharkin, a native of Donetsk, who, according to media reports, obtained Russian citizenship while in captivity, also remains a hostage.
