Economist reveals dollar exchange rate in 2025
The dollar exchange rate against the ruble in 2025 will continue its gradual growth and may reach 110-120 rubles by the end of December. This opinion was expressed by economist Mikhail Belyaev on Monday, January 20.
He noted that despite the fact that the Central Bank (CB) is trying to give objectivity to this process, the dollar exchange rate is still calculated manually, largely based on the regulator's own preferences and views.
"Previously, when the exchange rate was exchange-traded, it could be corrected only a little bit, but now, when it is calculated on the basis of over-the-counter transactions and additional information, the rate is a manual product," the specialist told Lenta.Ru.
He noted that for this reason it is currently extremely difficult to make forecasts for the exchange rate - in many respects its dynamics is based not on objective factors, but on the actions of the Central Bank. However, the general trend towards a gradual, creeping decline in the ruble-dollar exchange rate will continue even in this format, the economist added.
"The basic factor of the exchange rate of the national currency is the state of the economy. Not tax periods, not the price of oil, not some other nonsense that conjuncture experts like to add," Belyaev explained.
According to the economist, the rate may reach about Br110-120 per dollar by the end of the year with periodic jumps and rollbacks.
Earlier in the day, financier Alexander Losev said in a conversation with 360.ru that after the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, the dollar exchange rate may rise.
According to him, if Trump unleashes trade wars, starts imposing duties, capital flows to the United States, while the currencies of countries - trading partners of the United States will weaken, the dollar will begin to strengthen, reports IA Regnum.
In early December 2024, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that there is no room for a serious weakening of the ruble. In his opinion, the dollar rate at the end of 2025 will be approximately 112-115 rubles. At the same time, he admitted that some weakening of the national currency is indeed present, but no surprises are expected: the rate will fluctuate depending on the situation.
