What will happen to the ruble in 2025? Answers to the main questions
The situation with the ruble and the dollar in Russia continues to be difficult. However, as stated by the country's President Vladimir Putin, there are no grounds for panic. Fluctuations in the exchange rate at the end of the year are associated not only with inflationary processes, but also with payments to the budget and oil prices. In addition, in order to improve the representativeness of official rates, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) started setting official exchange rates on December 27, based on the combined data of exchange and OTC market segments. How the national currency will behave in 2025 and what will affect it most of all - Izvestia answers.
What does the Central Bank forecast?
- The Bank of Russia presented the most relevant forecast in the Macroeconomic Survey in December 2024. In it, experts significantly revised upward all the values for the next three years. For 2025, they forecast the average annual ruble-dollar exchange rate at 102 rubles, although back in October the estimates were five rubles lower.
- This forecast may continue to be revised upward, as there are significant risks for the ruble next year. One of the main ones is internal inflation. If by mid-summer it is not possible to achieve a steady decline in its rates, the weakening of the ruble against the dollar may intensify, and the demand for currency in cash as a way of protection against depreciation of savings on the part of households and businesses may grow.
What will be the ruble exchange rate at the beginning of the year?
- The beginning of the year may not be easy for the ruble, the dollar may reach 105, and the yuan - 14.5. In particular, January is a month of consumer spending and weak economic activity, so we should not expect a significant strengthening of the ruble in the first weeks of the year.
- Geopolitics may have its weighty word. On January 20, Donald Trump will officially become the US President. In case of favorable signals on the diplomatic front and a more tangible prospect of the end of the Ukrainian conflict, ruble assets - both the currency and stocks - may receive good support.
What are the main options for developments over the course of the year?
- The ruble exchange rate in 2025 will be affected by various factors, both downward and upward. We can expect a swing situation, when the ruble will make jumps towards a noticeable decline and then regain its positions. Experts consider three main scenarios: positive, realistic and negative.
- The positive scenario is close to the rate of 95 to 110 rubles per dollar. Realistic forecast: moderate devaluation until the end of 2025. - The ruble exchange rate will move into the range of 120 to 130 rubles per dollar. Negative scenario or force majeure: the ruble exchange rate will go beyond the range of 150 rubles per dollar.
- Despite the presence of serious risks for the ruble, in the baseline scenario, most of the interviewed experts do not expect a strong depreciation of the national currency in 2025. According to their data, the average annual rate may be about 105 rubles per dollar.
What factors should be monitored?
- Factors that can affect the ruble exchange rate can be divided into external (e.g., energy prices, sanctions and speculative capital flows) and internal (in particular, the Bank of Russia's exchange rate policy and the state of the banking sector).
- The higher the energy prices on the world markets, the greater the chances of ruble appreciation and vice versa. The latest reports of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC lowered their estimates of global oil demand next year, while some countries are likely to increase production, which implies a reduction in the supply deficit. At the same time, there is currently no reason to assume tangible changes in the oil price, unless there are serious shocks in the global economy.
- Another important factor is the state of foreign trade. Continued recovery of imports and stagnation of exports will lead to a reduction in the trade surplus, which will put pressure on the ruble.
- The easing of the sanctions regime may have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. Introduction of new sanctions - vice versa. The discussed restrictions against Russia are mainly related to pressure on the country's export capabilities. If serious obstacles to exports are developed and implemented, this will have a negative impact on the ruble. The longer it takes to overcome the effects of such sanctions, the longer the ruble will be relatively weaker against the dollar.
- The movement of speculative capital can be attributed to Donald Trump's unconventional steps - for example, the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This could lead to an overflow of funds to the U.S. government bond market, which would strengthen the dollar and depreciate the currencies of developing countries.
- Until the end of 2024, the Bank of Russia suspended currency purchases, which had a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. However, it may resume this year. In any case, the Central Bank has enough resources to ensure a certain stability of the ruble during the year, even at the cost of a negative scenario for the economy.
- One should also keep an eye on the state of the banking sector. High deposit rates make ruble savings profitable. At the same time, high lending rates may lead to deterioration in the quality of the banks' loan portfolio. The ruble depreciation is favorable for borrowers and unfavorable for depositors.
In preparing the material "Izvestia" communicated with:
- Oleg Akimov, Associate Professor of the Banking and Entrepreneurship Department of the State University of Management;
- Denis Buivolov, analyst of "BKS Investment World";
- Vladimir Eremkin, a researcher of the IPEI structural research laboratory of the Presidential Academy;
- Denis Astafiev, founder of the investment company SharesPro.
