Without a king at the helm: What awaits South Korea after the arrest of its president
South Korea's suspended but not resigned President Yun Seok-yol was arrested at his residence on January 15. This is the first time a sitting head of state has been taken into custody in the country's history. Yoon Seok-yeol refused to testify and accused the law enforcement system of corruption. The expert community said Yoon's arrest paves the way for the Constitutional Court to approve impeachment. They noted that Seoul is interested in a speedy end to the political crisis that is negatively affecting the country's economy. On what awaits Yoon Seok-yeol, and on the chances of his opponents to come to power - in the material "Izvestia".
Yoon Seok-yol arrested in Seoul
A month after his impeachment was announced, South Korean President Yun Seok-yol was arrested in the morning of January 15 at his residence in the center of Seoul. The operation involved dozens of police officers and investigators who had to overcome rows of barriers erected by the head of state's guards. However, unlike the first failed arrest attempt on Jan. 3, the detention took place without clashes with the president's security detail, who was also supported by supporters and about 30 members of his party.
Before leaving the residence, Yun addressed the nation, complaining that "the rule of law in the country has completely collapsed." He called the investigation illegal and emphasized that he decided to voluntarily face investigators to avoid bloodshed. At the same time, according to Yonhap News Agency, the president refused to testify.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yol
An arrest warrant for the head of state was issued on December 31 by the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO). The president is accused of leading the rebellion on December 3. Then, amid the political crisis in the country, Yun declared martial law, motivating his decision by the fact that the opposition tried to conduct impeachment proceedings against him. The prosecution puts special emphasis on the fact that the President mobilized the military that day to prevent the National Assembly from lifting martial law.
Recall that a few hours after its announcement, the Parliament recognized Yun's decision as unconstitutional and canceled it. Impeachment proceedings were launched at the same time. As a result, on December 14, Yoon Seok-yeol was removed from power by the country's parliament, which is controlled by opposition forces. On December 28, the National Assembly also announced impeachment of Prime Minister Han Dok-soo, who was acting as president and refused to appoint new judges to the Constitutional Court. The country is currently governed by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok. The politician called on all parties to focus solely on the country's economic stability and public welfare.
Who can lead South Korea
It is important to note that if Yoon Seok-yeol's guilt is recognized, the Constitutional Court will have nothing left but to approve the decision to impeach the head of state. According to the constitution, the instance must consider the impeachment case within 180 days. If it approves the removal, the country will call new presidential elections within the next two months.
It is likely that the president's criminal trial could conclude as early as March, and thus a new leader would take office in May or June after the election, predicts Kim Yong Un, a senior researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at IKSA RAS.
- I think he won't be able to turn away from the charges of sedition because there was a clear violation of the constitution. Even if he says that martial law only lasted six hours and none of the parliamentarians were arrested, it's obvious that the arrest didn't take place only because the military failed to do so," he told Izvestia.
Supporters of South Korean President Yun Seok-yol rally outside the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) after his arrest in a sedition case
If the election were held today, the winner would be opposition leader and Yoon Seok-yeol's rival from last year's campaign, Lee Jae-myung. According to the latest polls, more than 52% of the country's residents could vote for him, while the incumbent president's rating dropped to 11% after December 3. At the same time, we should not forget that in November Lee Jae Myung was found guilty of perjury, he was sentenced to one year of suspended imprisonment with a probation period of two years. The politician himself called the whole thing a political conspiracy and appealed the court's decision.
- If the appeals court affirms the decision, Li, as a person with a criminal record, will not be able to run for president. It is not like in the US here. Yoon's supporters have acted very cunningly to remove Lee from power," the expert added.
Economic crisis in South Korea
Be that as it may, South Korea is extremely interested in getting the situation back to normal as soon as possible, as the escalated political crisis has hit the country's economy hard. Thus, GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 amounted to only 0.1%, a year earlier this figure was 1.5%. The country is also experiencing the highest inflation since the late 1990s - in 2023 it amounted to 3.6%. Against this background, the budget deficit and the level of public debt, which has exceeded 50% of GDP, are growing. It is indicative that on December 3, the day of the military coup, the exchange rate of the South Korean won against the dollar fell by 2.6% to 1442 won per $1, which was a two-year low for the currency. The exchange rate stood at 1,488 won per $1 today, the lowest for the currency since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.
The normalization of the political situation in South Korea is also of interest to its foreign policy partners, the main of which is the United States. Donald Trump's rise to power is unlikely to seriously affect the relations between the two countries. Recall that during his first presidency, Trump demanded Seoul to pay $5 billion for the joint maintenance of the U.S. military contingent on the peninsula, and eventually the parties agreed on the amount of $1.5 billion.
Under Trump, the two sides will also continue to bargain because not only does South Korea need the U.S., but Washington is also interested in further cooperation, according to Kim Yong Un.
- South Korea and the U.S. have a number of common projects, including in high-tech electronics. Seoul has purchased $17 billion worth of arms from Washington, including F-35 airplanes. Trump will therefore not put much pressure on South Korea," he added.
The expert does not rule out that the republic may also go for expanding ties with Russia if Washington allows money transfers between the two countries and does not penalize South Korean businesses for this cooperation. "If Seoul is not hindered, it will establish relations with both Moscow and Beijing," he concluded.
Despite the fact that Russia views South Korea as one of the unfriendly countries because it has supported anti-Russian sanctions, Vladimir Putin said in June that Moscow "highly appreciates" the fact that Seoul does not take a "Russophobic" stance and does not directly supply arms to the conflict zone in Ukraine. Putin then emphasized that if Seoul allowed such supplies, Russia's response would hardly please the South Korean leadership.
Seoul, South Korea
At the same time, against the backdrop of Western allegations about the participation of DPRK soldiers in the conflict in Ukraine, Yun Seok-yol admitted in October that lethal weapons could still be sent to Ukraine. As for the opposition, it has repeatedly said that sending such weapons to Kiev is unacceptable. For example, in April 2023, Lee Jae Myung emphasized that such shipments would have negative consequences and their impact on the situation would be "beyond imagination."
