The hero of the dorama: why South Korea's parliament impeached the president
The National Assembly of the Republic of Korea supported the removal of President Yoon Seok-yol from office. Out of 300 deputies, 204 voted in favor of impeachment, 85 opposed, and three abstained. The case now goes to the Constitutional Court, four of whose six members were appointed by the president himself. The highest judicial body must decide whether the country will hold early elections or whether Yoon Seok-yeol will return to office. Experts predict that the possible change of power will not seriously affect Seoul's relations with its neighbors and the country's foreign policy in general.
Why the parliament suspended the president of South Korea
During the secret ballot, 204 out of 300 members of the country's parliament spoke in favor of removing President Yun Seok-yeol from power. Eighty-five opposed, three more abstained and eight votes were invalidated. Presidential opponents protesting in the streets of Seoul greeted the parliament's decision with jubilation.
Impeachment requires the support of at least two-thirds of lawmakers. The opposition United Democratic Party and five other smaller political forces hold just 192 seats. That means the impeachment was supported by 12 deputies from the president's Civic Forceparty. During the first vote on December 7, only three of his fellow party members voted for the removal of the head of state.
Recall, in the evening of December 3, Yun Seok Yeol announced the introduction of martial law in the country, for the first time since 1980. He said that the emergency measures are caused by the need to combat "anti-state forces".
The motives behind this decision remain unclear. The president himself cites sabotage by the opposition, which intended to impeach 22 government officials, as the reason. However, the real reason could be the threat of impeachment of Yoon Seok-yeol himself because of his low popularity and corruption scandals, including those involving the politician's wife. She was accused of receiving gifts worth more than the authorized limit.
After Yoon Seok-yeol's statement on December 3, any political activity, including the work of parliament and parties, was banned in the country, and armored vehicles appeared on the streets of the capital. However, 190 members of the national assembly were able to gather and voted to lift martial law. The president submitted to their will on the morning of December 4. According to polls, after these events, the rating of the head of state fell to a minimum of 11%.
South Korean President Yun Seok-yol delivers a special speech at the presidential office in Seoul
On the same day, the opposition launched impeachment proceedings. The President is accused of violating the Constitution, as well as the principles of popular sovereignty and separation of powers. After the failure of the first vote, the opposition said it would bring the motion before Parliament until it succeeded.
In a written statement after the parliamentary vote ended, Yoon Seok-yeol emphasized that he would "work for the good of the state until the last moment." He called on civil servants to unite and help Prime Minister Han Dok-soo, who has been temporarily handed the powers of the head of state.
Who has been arrested after attempted mutiny in South Korea
Against the backdrop of turbulent events in the country, South Korean law enforcement agencies have launched an investigation into the president's entourage. For example, on December 12, the parliament passed laws appointing special prosecutors to investigate possible wrongdoing by the president and his wife, as well as two impeachment motions against Justice Minister Park Sung-jae and head of the Korean National Police Agency Cho Ji-ho for their involvement in the imposition of martial law.
The president's closest associate, former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, attempted suicide in a Seoul detention center where he is being held on sedition charges. Another of his associates, military counterintelligence chief Yo In-hyun, said under questioning that the president had been planning to impose martial law since the summer of 2024.
South Korea's former defense minister Kim Yong-hyun
South Korean police have already launched an investigation into Yoon Seok-yeol himself on suspicion of treason. Yonhap News Agency writes that investigators are considering issuing an arrest warrant for Yoon and conducting searches at the presidential residence.
If the impeachment process ends with his complete removal from power, Yoon Seok-yeol will lose his immunity and be at risk of imprisonment. This has happened before in the country's history. For example, President Park Geun-hye lost her post in 2017 and was sentenced to 25 years in prison.
What awaits South Korea after the impeachment of a president
According to the South Korean Constitution, the Constitutional Court must hear an impeachment case within 180 days. Yoon Seok-yeol will be deprived of presidential power for this period, but he will retain the status of head of state. For example, he can continue to live in the Blue House, the official residence of presidents.
While the court considers the case, Prime Minister Han Dok-soo will serve as acting president. If the highest judicial body approves Yoon Seok-yeol's removal, the country will call a new presidential election within the next 60 days. If the court does not uphold the parliament's decision, the president will be reinstated.
At the moment, the Constitutional Court of South Korea has only six judges out of nine, Alexander Zhebin, a leading researcher atthe Center for Korean Studies of the IKSA RAS, told Izvestia.
- In order to consider any case in the Constitutional Court, at least seven people need to familiarize themselves with it. Now there are six, with two judges appointed by the former president from the opposition and four appointed by the current president. The big question is whether they will vote for impeachment," the expert said.
Acting Constitutional Court Chief Justice Moon Hyun-bae said six judges are enough to start the hearing, but further deliberations are needed to decide whether it is enough to reach a verdict. Normally, seven people make up a quorum.
There was a case in the history of the Republic of Korea when the Constitutional Court returned power to the president by rejecting impeachment proceedings. In 2004, the judges sided with Roh Moo-hyun, whom the opposition accused of financial fraud and failure to tackle corruption.
The favorite for an early presidential election, if held, is currently United Democratic Party leader and Yoon Seok-yeol's rival from last year's campaign, Lee Jae-myung. According to a recent opinion poll, more than half of South Koreans (52.4 percent) are willing to vote for him in the presidential election. An unexpected change of power in Seoul could change not only South Korea's domestic but also its foreign policy.
How impeachment will affect relations with Russia, the DPRK and the United States
At the same time, Russia's warnings against direct arms deliveries to Ukraine will deter any future administration in Seoul, Alexander Zhebin said. South Korea is now refraining from direct arms transfers to Kiev, although indirect supplies do exist.
-South Korea takes seriously the Russian side's warning that such a step would collapse our relations and give us the opportunity to supply any weapons, including high-precision ones, to North Korea, and this is something Seoul would very much not want," Alexander Zhebin said.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov earlier called the situation in South Korea alarming and noted that the Kremlin is closely monitoring it.
It is noteworthy that the DPRK did not immediately react to the political crisis in its southern neighbor. A large article devoted to the events in the Republic of Korea was published in the North Korean media only on December 11, Anna Polenova, a Korean scholar and senior lecturer at the Oriental Department of the State Academy of Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a commentary for Izvestia.
- After an eloquent silence, the DPRK did give an assessment of what was happening. The expressions used were harsh: "the fascist dictatorship did not hesitate to show its machine guns and knives to the people"; observers in North Korea point to a deep domestic political crisis as the reason," the expert said.
At the same time, Pyongyang quite clearly stated its unwillingness to develop contacts with the South. Therefore, Seoul is unlikely to be able to offer anything really attractive to the DPRK in the foreseeable future, summarizes Anna Polenova.
South Korea's relations with the United States will not change fundamentally either. The ruling elite of South Korea sees Washington as its main ally, which ensures the security of the state, said Alexander Zhebin.
-Another thing, if an opposition president comes, there may not be such active support for the trilateral military alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea, " the expert said.
In August 2023, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo agreed to deepen defense cooperation and set up a hotline to discuss threats. The US keeps 28,500 soldiers on the territory of South Korea, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in 2021.
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