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Gas cold: Transnistria will discuss the extension of the emergency regime in the energy sector
A meeting of the TMR Supreme Council to discuss the extension of the economic emergency regime will be held in the coming days, the press service of the republic's parliament has told Izvestiya. Transnistria faced an energy and humanitarian crisis after the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine stopped on January 1. In addition to the DMR, Moldova has also suffered - now Chisinau is forced to buy electricity from Romania at prices twice as high as before. The termination of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine has also hit the EU countries, experts say. They believe that high gas prices in Europe may last until the summer.
Humanitarian crisis in Transnistria
An energy crisis is worsening in Transnistria, provoked by the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Earlier Gazprom supplied 42 million cubic meters per day (about 15 billion cubic meters per year) to European countries, but Kiev refused to extend the transit agreement. The cessation of gas pumping expectedly hit importers. Ukraine's closest neighbors - Moldova and Transnistria - were particularly affected.
Back at the end of last year, Chisinau and Tiraspol introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector. In Transnistria it was launched on December 11 for 30 days.
- In the coming days, a meeting of the Supreme Council will be held to decide on the extension of the economic state of emergency and on measures to minimize the consequences of the crisis, but there is no official information on these issues," the press service of the Supreme Council of the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR) told Izvestia.
Tiraspol
On January 8, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Development of the DMR Sergei Obolonik said that Transnistria is in a state of not only energy but also humanitarian crisis.
- Now the republican gas consumption is 270 thousand cubic meters. This indicator is good. The resource will be enough for another 24 days from today," he said.
Immediately after the stoppage of Ukrainian transit, more than 1.5 thousand high-rise buildings were left without heating and hot water, and more than 70 thousand private homes were left without gas. Heating was also cut off in 131 schools and 147 kindergartens. Almost all industrial enterprises, except for foodstuffs, stopped working. Later, electricity outages began in the DMR, and on January 3, the authorities introduced a fan shutdown, which is now carried out twice a day for four hours.
On January 1, the Moldavskaya TPP in Transnistria switched from gas to coal to generate electricity, which, however, only temporarily solves the energy problem. Coal reserves at the TPP will last until mid-February at the most.
- The situation in Transnistria is complicated. There is not only an industrial but also a communal crisis there. What can be done? First of all, theoretically, it is possible to somehow negotiate with Moldova. Chisinau offers to supply gas, which it can buy on European markets, but it will be more expensive," Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert of the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explained to Izvestia.
The second option is to resume transit through Ukraine. But this requires that the acute phase of the conflict is over, which is unlikely to be possible in the near future, the analyst said.
- The third option is to send gas bypassing Ukraine through "Turkish Stream" and the Balkans. In principle, there should be free space in the "Turkish Stream", which should be just enough for the Moldavian TPP. But here again, everything rests on the relations between Moldova and Transnistria: gas supply lines are intertwined there, i.e. cooperation of both sides is necessary in this issue. Transnistria can receive electricity through Moldova from European countries, for example, Romania. But this again requires cooperation between the two countries, which is quite difficult.
Rising electricity prices in Moldova
The cessation of gas transit through Ukraine led to the fact that the electricity that was generated by the TPP in Transnistria stopped flowing to Moldova. Also at the end of last year, Chisinau refused to settle its debt to Gazprom (the amount owed is approximately $709 million). In this regard, the Russian side announced the cessation of supplies of blue fuel.
Now Kishinev buys more expensive electricity in Romania. In Moldavia, they announced a doubling of electricity and heat tariffs. Thus, in early January, Premier Energy, which serves about 70% of the country's consumers, requested a tariff increase from 2.34 to 5.13 lei per 1 kWh. At the same time, the government claims that there are no failures in gas and heat supply in Moldova, as well as a shortage of electricity in the country.
- Moldova now buys electricity from Romania, but it is much more expensive," Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. - On top of that, Kiev has hurt itself, because Romanian electricity used to be transited through Moldova and Transnistria only for Ukraine. And now part of this electricity is taken away by Moldova. Accordingly, Kiev has deprived itself of part of the electricity.
It is worth noting that Ukraine has also stopped receiving money for transit. Western analysts estimate Kiev's losses at about 0.5% of GDP, which is serious money for the country. At the same time, the termination of Ukrainian transit to Europe will have virtually no effect on Russia.
Rising gas prices in Europe
As for the European Union, the situation is ambiguous. On the one hand, the European Commission states that the EU has no problems with gas supply and its reserves in storage facilities. On the other hand, Brussels admits that the level of reserves in storage is currently 70%, which is lower than in the same period of 2024. Having analyzed the statistics, Bloomberg agency came to the conclusion that Europe is using up gas reserves faster than in the previous seven years.
Experts state: there are no fears that Europe will face gas shortages this season, but the less fuel left in March, the more difficult it will be to replenish reserves for the next winter season. Consequently, the risk of a short-term price spike increases.
- The main problems for Europeans are economic. Expensive gas produces expensive energy, which means that the cost of all goods produced in the European Union is high, and they become uncompetitive on the world market. Accordingly, they will further reduce the production of these goods," Igor Yushkov believes.
Gas prices are already rising. Thus, in early January, the cost of gas at the auction in Europe reached €526 per 1 thousand cubic meters. This is the highest level since October 2023. Alexei Grivach, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Security Fund and an expert of the Valdai Club, notes that the high cost of gas may persist until the summer.
- Gas withdrawal has increased due to high prices on the market and the desire to restrain their further growth in the conditions of transit stoppage. This increases the risks for stable gas supply to consumers in the second part of the heating season in case of severe frosts and other force majeure circumstances. In addition, companies will have to buy more gas during the summer period to replenish reserves for the next heating season. This will keep gas and energy prices high during the summer," he told Izvestia.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó estimated that the cost of gas has increased by 20 percent since mid-December.
- Ukraine's decision to stop transit will lead to a new rise in prices and create new problems for the competitiveness of Central Europe and the EU as a whole," he said.
In addition, some EU member states, such as Slovakia, are experiencing direct losses, having also lost transit funds. Thus, according to Prime Minister Robert Fitzo, Bratislava risks losing revenues of €400-500 million a year. The Slovak prime minister earlier pointed to a possible increase in gas prices in Europe, which would lead to annual losses for the EU in the amount of €60-70bn.
The issue of gas supplies remains acute for the republic, which is why on 9 January Robert Fitzo intends to discuss the situation with gas transit through Ukraine with representatives of the European Commission.
