Gas for that: Moldavia expects protests after transit through Ukraine is cut off
Protests may start in Moldova due to the termination of gas transit through Ukraine, an MP of the parliamentary Bloc of Communists and Socialists, Bohdan Tsyrdia, has told Izvestiya. Thus, farmers' protests have already taken place in the republic because of the general price rise. At the same time, Chisinau is not going for a dialog with Kiev and refuses to solve the problem together with Tiraspol, despite its dependence on the hydroelectric power plant in the unrecognized DMR. Where else Moldova can get gas and how the energy crisis affects the internal political situation - in the material of "Izvestia".
Fuel prices in Moldova have risen dramatically
Protests may start in Moldova because of the difficult energy situation in the republic due to the termination of gas transit through Ukraine, Bogdan Tsyrdia, an MP from the opposition parliamentary Bloc of Communists and Socialists (BCS), told Izvestia.
- Prices are rising, including electricity prices. This may provoke impoverishment, bankruptcy of farmers and enterprises. And, of course, there will be protests after the holidays," he said.
Thus, in Moldova, there have already been protests of farmers. The price of diesel fuel, gas and fertilizers has risen in the republic, which hits the cost of production, making it uncompetitive.
Since December 1, the price of gas in Moldova has increased by 27.5%. The National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) emphasized that the decision to increase it was taken due to a significant increase in the purchase prices for natural gas on international markets. However, it is worth mentioning that the national company Moldovagaz sent a request to ANRE to increase the price for end consumers by 39.7%.
The situation in the energy sector is of concern not only to the country's residents, but also to the government circles. Thus, on December 5, the BCS put forward a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic. However, it failed: deputies from the ruling party Action and Solidarity (PAS), expectedly, voted against it. At the same time, on December 11, a state of economic emergency was introduced in Transnistria for a month, and on December 16, the state of emergency regime began to operate throughout Moldova - it will last for 60 days.
Earlier, Moldova refused to buy gas directly from Gazprom and started buying Russian gas from European suppliers at higher prices. The refusal of purchases from Gazprom, as well as the cooling of relations with Moscow, restricted Moldova's access to the market of cheap energy resources, which provoked a rise in prices and another aggravation of the economic crisis, and consequently, the discontent of the population.
Ukraine stops gas transit
At the end of the year, the contract on the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory expires. Through it the blue fuel reaches such countries as Austria, Slovakia and Hungary. Back in the summer, Volodymyr Zelensky said: Kiev does not intend to extend the agreement. And on December 20, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal announced that Ukraine will stop transit of Russian gas at 7:00 on January 1, 2025.
By the way, on December 20, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo warned that if Zelensky limits transit, a serious conflict may arise.
At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stated that Russia is ready to continue supplies. Thus, Russia may pump gas through other pipelines if Ukraine refuses transit, Vladimir Putin said.
On December 19, speaking at a direct line combined with a press conference on the results of 2024, Vladimir Putin noted that Kiev had cut off gas supplies to European consumers, although it was "pecking at their hands."
"This [transit] contract will no longer exist, everything is clear, but, then, it's good, we will survive, Gazprom will survive it," the president said.
At the same time, Gazprom will be "in the plus" in any case this year and next year, despite the economic losses, Igor Yushkov tells Izvestia.
- "For Gazprom, these are economic losses. However, in previous years it has already reduced production and exports by 130 billion cubic meters, has already radically reduced the volume of supplies to Europe, and these 10-15 billion cubic meters will not play a special role. It will reduce its profitability, but it will still remain in the plus at the end of 2024 and 2025," says the expert.
According to him, gas can be redirected through "Turkish Stream", but it should be taken into account that it is also loaded. Thus, Europe will be deprived of some volumes, which means that it will have to reduce consumption. In other words, all countries will suffer.
What is the problem with gas transit through Ukraine?
If Europe will first of all suffer economically, Moldova may simply lack gas. Pipeline gas can be supplied to the territory of the republic in two directions - transit through Ukraine and via "Turkish Stream". But even on the Turkish route the gas pipeline to Moldova passes through the Ukrainian territory. Thus, earlier Tiraspol also addressed Chisinau with a request to enter into a dialog with Kiev. The fact is that Moldova receives up to 80% of its electricity from the Transnistrian TPP, which operates at the expense of Russian gas supplied there through Ukraine. It turns out that Chisinau and Tiraspol should solve the issue of gas supplies jointly.
Nevertheless, there has been no official response from Chisinau to Tiraspol's proposal. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebryan said that negotiations with Kiev are "difficult from both political and moral points of view".
It is worth noting that Moldova does potentially have a way out of the situation, experts explained earlier. Ukraine can actually extend gas transit if, for example, Europe signs an additional agreement with Gazprom to move the point of delivery-acceptance of gas. Right now, Gazprom transfers the ownership of the fuel to European companies already in Europe, which means that when the gas passes through Ukraine, it still belongs to Russia. And the Ukrainians want to close all contacts with Europe, i.e. to make the gas at the border between Russia and Ukraine immediately become European. However, the Europeans realize that this may eventually turn into blackmail on the part of Kiev.
However, Moldova can also agree on such a scheme, i.e. come to an agreement with Kiev that the gas flowing through the territory of Ukraine belongs to Chisinau. Nevertheless, Moldova probably has similar concerns as the EU countries.
There is another option: Moldova may "agree" with Eastern European countries as well, political scientist Oleg Bondarenko tells Izvestia.
- Eastern Europe is a developed space in terms of pipelines, there are a lot of opportunities there. I think that nobody will freeze globally and even short-term shutdowns will be a reason for situational negotiations and agreement on the necessary price - they will come to an agreement," he said.
Chairman of the Management Board, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of PJSC Gazprom Alexey Miller
However, the Moldovan authorities have already made attempts to reach an agreement with Gazprom. At that time, Energy Minister Victor Parlicov traveled to St. Petersburg in November to meet with the head of the concern Alexei Miller. Nevertheless, the negotiations were not successful. In general, the republic's relations with Gazprom have been difficult to call simple for several years. Until October 2022, the company was the only supplier of gas to Moldova, but then reduced the daily supply by 30% due to technical problems associated with the limitation of transit through Ukraine. Relations between Moldova and Gazprom have also become complicated due to the country's failure to fulfill its financial obligations to the company. Chisinau has repeatedly failed to repay its debts, while the Russian side has repeatedly made concessions on payments.
In the current situation, it is also worth considering that in 2025 Moldova will hold parliamentary elections, which are considered crucial for the republic. Recently, the ruling party PAS of incumbent President Maia Sandu has been losing ground, and the energy crisis may further aggravate the situation - thus, it is possible that Chisinau's policy will change significantly.
