Refusal is formalized: Moldova evades joint gas solution with DMR
Moldova is avoiding a joint solution with Transnistria of the issues related to receiving gas after the transit through Ukraine stops, the DMR Foreign Ministry has told Izvestiya. Thus, a state of emergency regime has been in effect in Moldova since December 16. Earlier, a similar state of emergency was introduced in Transnistria for one month. Experts note that Kiev can ensure gas transit, however, if the blue fuel passing through the territory of Ukraine does not belong to Gazprom. Therefore, the possibility for Transnistria to receive gas at the moment depends on Moldova. On the other hand, there is a Moldovan TPP in the DMR, which covers more than 80% of the republic's electricity needs with fuel from Gazprom.
Chisinau refused to negotiate with Kiev on gas transit
Chisinau is avoiding approaches aimed at resolving the issue of gas transit to the Republic of Moldova (RM) and the unrecognized Republic of Transnistria, the Foreign Ministry of the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR) told Izvestia. Tiraspol is currently open and ready for operative interaction.
- Moldova continues to evade sensible constructive approaches, deliberately provoking the aggravation of the crisis to a critical stage. It is important to realize that without a sustainable agreement, both the DMR and the Republic of Moldova, despite the bravado of some Moldovan representatives, will face severe consequences. Therefore, we will certainly continue communicating with Chisinau," the Foreign Ministry said. - The issue of energy supply is so vitally important that we will in any case discuss it with all international participants involved, including Moldova, no matter how inadequately the Moldovan side behaves. Transnistria is fully open and ready for operational interaction, so the ball is now on Chisinau's side.
Ukraine's head of state Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that Kiev would not prolong the agreement with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas. It expires on December 31 this year. Transnistria receives Russian gas for the Moldovan TPP, which, in turn, covers more than 80% of the republic's electricity needs. Therefore, the Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized DMR urged Chisinau to send a joint appeal to Ukraine and Russia to maintain supplies of blue fuel to the republic via the existing route.
However, no official response to Transnistria's proposal has been submitted so far, the Foreign Ministry added.
Nevertheless, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebryan said that negotiations with Kiev are "difficult both politically and morally." At the same time, he expressed hope that Gazprom would not stop supplying gas to Moldova via alternative routes.
Moscow has repeatedly stated that, unlike Kiev, Russia is ready to continue gas transit to Europe. Thus, Russia can supply it through other gas pipelines if Ukraine refuses transit, Vladimir Putin said.
- "In particular, through Turkish Stream, maybe partly through Blue Stream in Turkey, too, although this is for domestic consumption," the Russian president said earlier.
At the end of October, he again noted that Russia had never given up supplies, including via the Ukrainian route, and intended to continue them.
At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that after the expiration of the contract with Gazprom, Ukraine would jointly with the EU decide on the transit of Russian gas through its territory to Europe. So, probably, Moldavia realizes that they will have to follow the scheme that will be worked out in the Russia-Europe-Ukraine triangle, Igor Yushkov, an expert of the Financial University under the Russian government and a leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia.
- The Ukrainians are forcing the Europeans to sign an additional agreement with Gazprom to move the point of gas delivery-acceptance. Now Gazprom transfers the ownership of gas to European companies in Europe, which means that when gas passes through Ukraine, it belongs to Russia. And Ukrainians want to close all contacts with Europe on themselves, for this purpose they need a point of gas acceptance. But the Europeans realize that this will be a direct blackmail," he said.
Nevertheless, such an agreement for the sake of extending transit can be formalized even on December 31, the analyst said. If Europe will not go for it, Moldova can do everything by analogy. "Moldovagaz" can sign an agreement with "Gazprom", where it will receive the right of ownership of fuel right on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Pipeline gas can be supplied to the territory of Moldavia and Transnistria in two directions - transit through Ukraine and via the Turkish Stream. But even on the Turkish route, the gas pipeline to Moldova passes through Ukrainian territory. Therefore, it is likely that Kishinev will have to resolve the issue of gas transit with Kiev, Igor Yushkov believes. It is also worth noting that Gazprom has not booked the capacity to supply gas to Moldova in January through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline.
What is the essence of the dispute between Moldova and Gazprom?
Nevertheless, Moldova's problems are not limited to Ukraine. Chisinau has unresolved issues with Russia's Gazprom. Currently, it supplies Moldova with 5.7 million cubic meters of gas per day, which is used for internal consumption in Transnistria, as well as to generate electricity for the right bank of the Dniester.
Until 2022, the holding was the only supplier of gas to Moldova. But since October of the same year, Gazprom has reduced the daily supply by 30% due to technical problems related to the restriction of transit through Ukraine. After that, Chisinau blamed Moscow for the energy crisis, and later Moldova allegedly refused to buy fuel from the corporation, and started buying gas from Europe through the company Energocom.
It should be noted that relations between Moldova and Gazprom became complicated due to the country's failure to fulfill its financial obligations to the company. Chisinau has repeatedly failed to pay debts, while the Russian side has repeatedly made concessions on payments.
However, the Moldovan Energy Ministry has previously stated that in case of a critical situation they are ready to return to gas purchases from Gazprom. Thus, in November, Energy Minister Victor Parlikov met with the head of the Russian holding Alexei Miller in St. Petersburg, where they discussed alternative routes of gas supplies to Transnistria in case of termination of transit through Ukraine. At the same time, Chisinau still has a $709m debt to the holding company, which the Moldovan side has not recognized.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean also recently said that, according to the contract, Gazprom is obliged to ensure gas supplies to the republic's border via an alternative route, which is possible through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline. However, Victor Parlicov later said that the Russian side, referring to the same contract, conditioned such supplies on the Moldovan side's fulfillment of its debt obligations. It is noteworthy that after that Moldovan President Maia Sandu signed a decree to recall the minister from his post.
Situation in Transnistria and scenarios for the development of events
Since December 16, due to the situation with gas supplies, a state of emergency for 60 days began to operate in Moldova. A one-month state of economic emergency was also introduced in Transnistria on December 11.
- Now the government is working out the issues of Transnistria's vital activity in case of absence of gas, action plans of specific state structures and organizations. Thus, we are preparing for a crisis scenario, but we assume that there is still time to avoid it, and therefore we aim at further dialog on this problem with all interested parties," the DMR Foreign Ministry said.
Supreme Council deputy Andrei Safonov also added to Izvestiya that the situation in Transnistria is currently calm. Before the New Year, the DMR should hold several more meetings on the gas situation.
- Tiraspol is working on these issues, either the continuation of the flow through Sudja or the use of the Turkish Stream, but everything depends on Chisinau, whether it will interfere with the supply of gas to Transnistria," he said.
Also, the DMR authorities will continue negotiations with the Russian Federation on this issue. Transnistrian residents even send their appeals to a direct line with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Igor Yushkov believes that if we consider the worst-case scenario, in which the transit will stop, both Transnistria and Moldova will face a critical energy shortage. The Moldovan authorities recognize that it is impossible to fully compensate for the capacity of TPPs to supply electricity to the two banks of the Dniester by supplying electricity from Europe in the current situation.
Moldova will be able to buy electricity from Romania, but in this case it will have to share the volume supplied to Ukraine. Then Moldova and the DMR may introduce electricity supply schedules, the analyst believes. As for the Transnistrian TPP, it will initially be able to work on coal, but this will be enough only until the end of the heating season, and only if electricity schedules are introduced again, the expert summarized.
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