A period of disintegration: what awaits Germany after the dissolution of the Bundestag
Following the split of the ruling coalition and a vote of no confidence in the government, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced on December 27 the dissolution of the Bundestag. Such a decision paves the way for early elections, which must now be held on February 23. In pre-election polls, the CDU/CSU bloc is confidently in first place. Experts polled by Izvestia believe that if CDU leader Friedrich Merz becomes the new chancellor and the Greens join the ruling coalition, Germany will decide to supply Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles. However, experts are sure that Berlin will in any case coordinate its actions with the new US President Donald Trump. On the beginning of the election race in Germany and its prospects - in the material "Izvestia".
The President of Germany dissolved the parliament
As expected, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag on December 27 and scheduled new elections for February 23. Thus, the head of state fulfilled the request of Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz to dissolve the parliament after the latter refused to trust the government on December 16. At that time, 394 deputies voted in favor of dissolving parliament and holding new elections, 207 supported Scholz's cabinet and 116 abstained.
- Especially in times as difficult as these, stability requires an effective government and a reliable majority in parliament," Steinmeier explained his decision.
The current parliament and its committees will continue to work as usual until the new Bundestag meets. The government will also continue to fulfill its duties. According to German law, the powers of the federal chancellor end a maximum of 30 days after a new election.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier
It is indicative that, as earlier in France, the reason for the vote of no confidence in the government was the budget for 2025. In particular, in the camp of the ruling "traffic light coalition", named so by the colors of the participating parties, there was a split over the anti-crisis plan proposed by the Minister of Finance, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) Christian Lindner. Against the backdrop of a severe economic downturn, he proposed a balanced budget that included tax cuts and the abolition of all new regulations.
Scholz found the proposed measures unfair, and on November 6, he sent Lindner to resign. The topic of Ukraine was not left out. Scholz said that the government could not choose between the need to increase aid to Kiev and the social sector. "There has to be both. Security and [social] cohesion," he said. Thus, the ruling coalition in power since the end of 2021, which included the Social Democrats and the Greens in addition to the FDP, has effectively ceased to exist.
The chances of parties in Germany to win
According to the latest poll, conducted on December 27, the rating of the conservative Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc reached 32% of the vote, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD receives only 16%. "Alternative for Germany" remains in second place with an unchanged 19%.
Interestingly, when asked which candidate they would like to see as chancellor, if the decision were up to them and the choice was between CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Olaf Scholz, Germans would give almost equal numbers of votes to both (44% and 43% respectively). However, if they had to choose between four politicians - Merz, Scholz, Robert Habeck of the Greens and Alice Weidel of the AdG - the CDU leader would be supported by 29% of voters and the incumbent chancellor by 16%. For Habeck and Weidel would vote 25 and 16% respectively. Recall that the chancellor in Germany is elected by the Bundestag deputies by secret ballot.
Alice Weidel, co-chair of the German right-wing party Alternative for Germany (AdG)
Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies, IMI MGIMO, believes that the election campaign, which is held in an emergency mode, is doomed to become quite dirty. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that it may bring certain surprises.
- Based on the configuration of political forces that exist, the victory of the Christian Democrats and the chancellorship of Friedrich Merz, as well as the formation of the so-called grand coalition uniting the CDU/CSU and SPD, seem inevitable," he told Izvestia. - But this is the picture of today, and it can change. Representatives of the Christian Democrats make it clear that this situation is not automatically predetermined, and from time to time there are reports of their readiness to work in the format of, for example, a "black-green" coalition, i.e. to include the Greens rather than the Social Democrats. But in any case, the electoral math has the last word. In 2021, the balance of political forces began to change a few months before the elections.
The foreign policy factor in the candidate lineup
The foreign policy factor also plays an important role. The elections in the eastern federal states and the European Parliament this year showed the high attention of the German electorate precisely to foreign policy issues, which are now centered around Ukraine. It is easy to assume that all political forces will seek to play the "peacekeeping card" in one way or another, as there is a growing public demand for a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and a peaceful settlement.
In this regard, it is indicative that the Alternative for Germany party presented its resolution for peace and sovereignty of the FRG in mid-December in Thuringia. And it was published in three languages - German, English and Russian. At the same time, back in early 2023, the AdG proposed a "peace concept" in parliament, in which it called for at least a 90-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
It is interesting to note that in France, amid the political crisis, President Emmanuel Macron has begun to position himself as an active negotiator on Ukraine. Obviously, he is largely driven by a desire to justify himself for failures in domestic politics. The talks between Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which took place on November 15, nine days after the collapse of the "traffic light coalition," fit into this logic.
However, as German political scientist Alexander Rahr notes, Scholz, unlike Macron, is taking concrete steps in this direction. By the way, in an interview with T-online on December 27, Scholz said that he would like to talk to Putin again.
- Macron is not talking to Putin, but Scholz is. Macron's behavior is inconsistent. One minute he wants to send NATO troops to Ukraine, the next he's shaking hands with Lavrov at the G20. It's unclear what the French president wants. "Scholz has explicitly said that he will not authorize sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine," he told Izvestia. - Scholz will seek to bolster his ratings by offering peace talks with Russia. The issue of foreign policy is important to Germans, but they will choose the party that leaves them with more money in their pockets. And in the eyes of many Germans, the Christian Democrats provide an alternative to Scholz's Social Democrats program," he said.
In any case, much will depend on the course Washington will choose when Donald Trump returns to the White House. By the way, Scholz had a phone conversation with Trump on December 19. According to a statement from the department, the politicians agreed that the conflict in Ukraine "has gone on for too long and it is important to get on the path to a just and sustainable peace as soon as possible." The conversation was the second contact between Scholz and Trump since the Republican won the US election. The first time they called was on Nov. 11.
At the same time, if the conflict continues and "hawks" led by Merz come to power in Germany, it is not excluded that Germany will choose an even tougher course of confrontation with Russia. On December 10, Friedrich Merz said that if he wins the election, he will decide in coordination with the United States to supply Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles.
- The question is with whom Merz will be in coalition. If with the SPD, I think the future foreign minister will be from the Social Democrats. In this case, the possibility of finding agreements with Russia and a certain normalization of relations cannot be ruled out. If the Greens get into the government and Berbock becomes foreign minister, then everything will be the same as it is now, or maybe even much worse," Alexander Rahr said.
At the same time, it is hard to imagine that Germany will oppose Trump's desire to negotiate with Russia, the expert summarized.
