Put up a block: German conservatives squabble over the Greens
On the eve of the debate on a vote of confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which is to be held in the Bundestag on December 16, relations between the leaders of the conservative bloc - Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Markus Söder of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria - have escalated. Politicians differently look at the possibility of building a coalition following the early elections scheduled for February 23, 2025. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Between the Social Democrats and the Greens
The leader of the CSU Markus Söder called the leader of the "Greens" Robert Habeck "the face of the current German crisis".
"I don't think Robert Habeck is competent to hold a position in the federal government and certainly not to be federal economy minister," he said. The possibility of the CDU/CSU bloc organizing a coalition with the party was thus called into question.
According to Söder, the position of the CSU is shared by "many voters in Germany," which includes not only supporters of his party but also CDU voters.
CSU leader Markus Söder
By contrast, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, his CDU/CSU bloc partner, who has a good chance of becoming chancellor, admits that Habeck could be appointed economy minister in his future government.
On December 11, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sent a request for a vote of confidence in the government to the Bundestag; a vote on this issue in the German parliament is scheduled for December 16. If the deputies refuse the head of the government in confidence, February 23, 2025 in the country will be held early parliamentary elections.
The political crisis in the FRG has arisen due to disagreements in the ruling coalition on financial, economic and budgetary policy.
What are the diverging opinions of the leaders of the leading parties in Germany?
According to recent opinion polls, the CDU/CSU bloc is supported by 32% of voters, so it needs a partner to form a government coalition. The far-right Alternative for Germany is in second place.
However, due to the fact that any cooperation with this political force is rejected, the choice of conservatives is actually limited to two parties: SPD and the Greens.
The foreign policy views of Friedrich Merz, who recently returned from Kiev, promising Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky the delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles, coincide with the course of the "Greens": they are in favor of a tough anti-Russian course and increased military support for Ukraine.
Söder, for his part, opposes a possible coalition with the Greens. Their views diverge, in particular over the migration issue. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the CSU demands the expulsion to Syria of all refugees in Germany.
However, the Greens are strongly opposed to this decision and propose to send people to Syria at will, not forced. In addition, the party is in favor of giving Syrians who voluntarily leave Germany for their homeland at least 1,000 euros.
The media are increasingly speculating that the results of the early elections will most likely result in the formation of the time-tested "grand coalition" of the CDU/CSU and SPD bloc. Markus Söder has repeatedly stated this.
What the experts think
Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Mertz's position hardly coincides with the position of the Union 90/Greens party.
- If they do agree tactically, it is only on foreign policy issues. This is support for Ukraine and some points in the sphere of the socio-economic agenda," the political scientist explained.
In his opinion, in any case, everything that is happening now in German politics and in the triangle of CDU/CSU - "Union 90/Greens" - SPD is "a consequence of the pre-election game, and all statements that are made at the moment should be considered in this context".
- Talks about the possible format of a future coalition are also part of the current electoral struggle. The Union of 90/Greens party realizes that its ratings are not on the upswing and is trying to stop its popularity from falling one way or another," says the expert. Among other things, they are trying to present themselves as a convenient coalition partner, Artem Sokolov added.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz
The expert community has long been discussing that the future format of the ruling coalition will be a "grand coalition," the Germanist added.
- There are corresponding signals in German politics as well. However, until the elections themselves are held and the results of the vote are unknown, nothing can be said with 100 percent certainty. The 2021 election campaign was characterized by strong dynamics of ratings and anti-ratings. Then the Greens were one of the leaders of the race, but then as a result of mistakes of the election headquarters lost the leadership," the analyst recalled.
The expert believes that despite the apparent predetermination of the "grand coalition", there are always possibilities for unexpected turns in the election race.
- And here all political forces should keep a certain balance, some negotiating flexibility and be ready for the fact that, perhaps, it will be necessary to talk in a different format. The CDU, as the most popular party at the moment, is interested in acting not only with a programmed partnership with the Social Democrats, but also to leave room for maneuver," Sokolov said.
According to him, the Union 90/Greens party is one of the alternatives.
- Although at the moment, judging by the ratings of the parties, the CDU/CSU bloc together with the Greens are not gaining a majority. But it is difficult to say how it will be on the day of voting," said the political scientist.
He is sure that the CDU/CSU bloc has a desire to protect itself from risks, including reputational, when the party declares that it will not enter into an alliance with this or that political force, and then the results of the vote actually oblige to violate these principles.
- This was the case in 2017, when the Social Democrats after the elections thundered about going into opposition, but because the CDU failed to hold coalition talks with the Greens and the Liberals, had to break its post-election promises and return to a coalition with the Christian Democrats. This is what many SPD members wanted to walk away from," the expert summarized.
German political scientist Alisha Mendgen believes that if the CDU/CSU bloc continues to argue, it may lose its leadership.
"The bloc must act carefully so as not to alienate center-left voters. If the Union continues in the same vein, it will lose its leadership. Instead of talking substance, the CDU and the CSU are arguing about coalition options. Marx Söder is ruling out an alliance with the Greens with a kind of obsession and thus disrupting Merz's election campaign," says the expert.
She believes that with a high probability the CDU/CSU bloc will win the election.
"But the question is also with what result. If the victory is unconvincing, the CDU will have to add another partner to the coalition," the expert believes.
