In the access zone: what the restrictions on family mortgages will be lifted for
Limits on family mortgages have been practically removed, said Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin. Earlier, during the combined direct line and press conference, Vladimir Putin said that there should be no restrictions on this state program. The head of the Russian government Mikhail Mishustin demanded to solve this issue promptly. How this will affect the volume of construction and the price of real estate - in the material "Izvestia".
Equal access
Next year, the family mortgage will continue to play an important role in real estate sales tools and its share may reach more than 50% of the total volume of mortgage loans, said "Izvestia" expert of corporate ratings group ACRA Anton Trenin.
- The new mechanism of distribution of quotas for family mortgage, which provides equal access of all banks to subsidies in the presence of a common unused limit, should help to avoid suspensions in the issuance of loans under this program, - he believes. - This will be a condition that can support demand amid factors that reduce sales in the real estate market, such as high market rates and the entry into force on January 1 of a new mortgage standard. This standard is designed to exclude a number of popular schemes from developers, including subsidized rates and tranche mortgages, which may further complicate the market situation.
Despite the fact that in the first 10 months of 2024 the number of new projects in Russia increased by 8% compared to the same period last year, under current conditions developers will have to postpone the launch of new construction, the expert noted.
- Thus, already in November 2024, developers brought to the market 16.5% less housing than in the same period of 2023. Nevertheless, taking into account the average cycle of construction of apartment buildings (2-3 years), the volume of housing under construction will remain high in 2025 and may begin to gradually decline closer to 2027, if the trend of slowing down the launch of new projects continues, - said Anton Trenin.
According to the price index "Dom.RF", in the first nine months of 2024, prices for new buildings in Russia increased by 6.4%, but in real terms - by only 0.6%. With demand cooling, which implies lower sales next year given the high base of the first half of 2024, further price growth in the primary housing market will be limited.
Increased demand
The removal of restrictions on the family mortgage program is an important step that will have a positive impact on both the volume of construction and the stability of real estate prices, Valery Tumin, director of Russia and CIS markets at Fam Properties, told Izvestia. Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin and the Cabinet together with the Central Bank are implementing a measure that will not only support citizens, but will also give a strong impetus to the construction industry.
- Cancellation of limits on the family mortgage program will create additional demand for housing, especially in the primary market. Developers will be able to plan new projects more confidently, and the increase in the number of transactions will stimulate the active development of residential neighborhoods. This mechanism will become one of the drivers for achieving the ambitious goals of the national project "Housing and Urban Environment"," the expert believes.
Increasing the availability of mortgages for families with children, according to him, will help maintain the balance of supply and demand. The inflow of buyers to the real estate market will create a sustainable dynamics, while developers, having received more orders, will be able to maintain an adequate level of prices due to the growth of construction volumes.
The removal of restrictions from the limits of the program "Family Mortgage" may have a positive impact on the volume of construction, stimulating developers to increase the pace of housing construction, agreed Ekaterina Podolskaya, an expert of the Department of Economics and Finance of the branch of the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg.
- As for the real estate prices, in the short-term perspective their growth is possible, but in the future the situation may stabilize due to the increase in supply, - the expert noted in conversation with "Izvestia".
Rights standards
In the Year of the Family, special attention was paid to family mortgages. But since the right to provide it is not entrusted to all banks and within certain limits, this has to some extent hindered its development, says Natalia Kazantseva, associate professor at the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements of the State University of Management.
- This led to the revival of the so-called quasi-mortgage schemes on the part of real estate developers, who essentially took over the functions of lending. The resulting increase in the price of apartments and violation of borrowers' rights required the Central Bank of Russia to develop a mandatory standard for banks to protect their rights and legitimate interests," the expert emphasized in her conversation with Izvestia. - Therefore, the removal of limits for banks in the design of loans for family mortgage should offset the negative effects of subsidizing developers high mortgage rates associated with high risks, of which they may not be aware.
Family mortgages, she said, should prevail among other types of state-backed mortgages, which is in line with the main national projects and programs to increase the birth rate in the country. The removal of limits on state subsidies should lead to an increase in construction and lower prices in the residential real estate market.
The cost of new buildings in Russia will decrease in early 2025, experts of "Yandex Nedvizhimosti" reported earlier. At the same time, the price of 1 sq. m. in new buildings in cities with a million inhabitants increased by 13.5% for the year, up to 174 thousand rubles. At the same time, the growth rate decreased by 2.4 p.p. The median cost of 1 sq. m. increased most strongly in Yekaterinburg - by 18.7%, up to Br160 thousand per 1 sq. m.
According to analysts' data, the volume of supply on average in 16 surveyed cities-million-strong cities increased by 5% over the year. The indicator grew the strongest in Nizhny Novgorod, Moscow, Kazan, Yekaterinburg and Voronezh (from +4,7 to +16,4%).
According to the results of the year, over 19.5 mln. sq. m. of housing will be commissioned in million-strong cities. The leaders are Moscow (6.6 million square meters), St. Petersburg (3 million square meters) and Krasnodar (2.2 million square meters).
"Izvestia sent an inquiry to the Ministry of Construction, but at the time of publication no response had been received.
