Skip to main content
Advertisement
Live broadcast
Main slide
Beginning of the article
Озвучить текст
Select important
On
Off

Theaverage check on preferential mortgages exceeded 6 million rubles by the beginning of December, according to the data of OKB (Izvestia has it), while in most regions this is the maximum amount that can be borrowed at a reduced rate. This means that part of the loan must now be issued at inflated market interest rates. In general, the volume of mortgage originations in the first 11 months of 2024 has already decreased by a third. Next year, the trend will continue, and housing prices will decline. What changes await the market in 2025 and how they will affect real estate buyers - in the material "Izvestia".

The average check for a preferential mortgage

By the beginning of December, the average check on the preferential mortgage exceeded the maximum 6 million rubles, according to data from the United Credit Bureau (UCB). Under the terms of the most massive now state program for families with children, it is this amount of credit - 6 million rubles - the limit for all regions except Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad regions (here the limit is 12 million). The average indicator of UCB includes loans in all subjects of the Russian Federation - including those where the threshold is higher.

However, the trend is evident - loans for housing with state support more and more often do not fit within the established limits, experts interviewed by Izvestia said.

The excess part has to be issued at market rates - this is called a combo-mortgage. Now they can exceed 30%. At the same time, Izvestia reported that market participants may additionally inflate them. According to Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov, part of the loan without state support can be issued at a rate of 100%.

It is important that the borrower first makes a down payment of 20% and only then makes a loan within the threshold established by the program. In the calculation of the average check, the down payment is not taken into account - so the average cost of housing mortgaged by the beginning of December is at least 7.5 million rubles.

договор
Photo: Izvestia/Eduard Kornienko

Exceeding the check over the limits of state programs once again confirms that housing prices in Russia are growing at an accelerated rate, overtaking the average inflation in the country, said economist Andrei Barkhota. The cost per square meter has increased by 15-25% this year, and the availability of housing has decreased even more, given the sharp rise in interest rates on loans.

The deterioration in housing affordability is also indirectly confirmed by the fact that the average term on a favorable mortgage by the end of the year increased to a record 26.5 years, according to the UCB data. This means that it is increasingly difficult for people to quickly repay loans, and overpay for the entire term will have to seven times, wrote "Izvestia".

Thecost of a decent one-room apartment in a new building even in regions outside the capitals is already beyond 6 million rubles, confirmed the leading analyst of Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova. Since the beginning of 2024, new housing in major cities has risen in price by 6-8%.

Mortgage support programs and their impact on the market

Housing prices rose at the end of the year, despite the reduction of state support for the real estate market in 2024. Thus, in July, the mass non-addressable program at 8% was canceled, thanks to which a significant share of housing was sold. This caused a frenzy of demand for it - in the last month of its issuance jumped by 70%, follows from the data of the corporation "Dom.RF".

Conditions for family mortgage in July also tightened - now it can be issued to families with at least one child under six years, with disabled children, two minor children from small towns of up to 50 thousand people or from regions with a low level of construction. Banks had to restructure because of the changes, so they were able to fully restart the program only by the beginning of August.

The conditions for IT-mortgage were even more radically tightened - Moscow and St. Petersburg were excluded from it, which greatly reduced the demand for the program.

офис
Photo: Izvestia/Eduard Kornienko

In addition, during the year, issuance was not stable - there were failures when the banks came to the end of limits on government programs, recalled the board of Absolut Bank Anton Pavlov. The last time it happened this fall.

At the direct line, Russian President Vladimir Putin called such situations an outrage. On the instructions of the head of state, the Ministry of Finance will prepare amendments to the rules of family mortgage to eliminate the mechanism of limits altogether.

At the same time, even after the tightening of conditions, the share of mortgages under government programs in issuance in the average 11 months of 2024 was 68%, and by the end of the year reached a record 76%, according to the data of the UCB. This means that the state pays for almost two-thirds of the loans issued together with the borrowers.

At the same time, the difference between preferential and market rates reaches 17-21 p.p., which means that the main debt burden is on the borrowers.- This means that the main debt burden on housing loans in Russia is now borne by the state. Perhaps that is why the Ministry of Finance has repeatedly stated its intention to reduce the share of preferential mortgages in the issuance of housing loans to 25%.

дом
Photo: Izvestia/Konstantin Kokoshkin

In 2025, the Ministry of Finance will spend Br1.4 trillion on preferential mortgages - for comparison, the indexation of pensions will take half the amount of Br700 billion, said Natalia Milchakova. Budget expenditures to support the real estate market will amount to 0.8% of GDP. At the same time, after the abolition of limits, instructed by the President, the spending may increase even more.

What will happen to the real estate market in 2025

At the end of the first 11 months of 2024, Russians took out mortgages (both market and preferential) for 4.66 trillion rubles, according to the UCB. The indicator fell by 37% compared to the same period of 2023, when loans for 7.4 trillion rubles were issued.

Against the background of the key rate increase from 16% to 21% since the beginning of the year, the rates on market programs have exceeded all psychologically significant levels, explained Andrei Barkhota. Now they reach 30% per annum on average. Demand has shifted to primary real estate, where transactions were held under preferential programs, said Anton Pavlov from Absolut Bank.

In 2025, there are still risks of growth of the key rate up to 25%, added Andrei Barkhota. Therefore, mortgages may become more expensive.

ключ
Photo: Izvestia/Mitriy Korotayev

In addition, in the new year, the Central Bank plans to introduce quantitative restrictions on mortgages, reminded Anton Pavlov. This will limit the issuance of loans to borrowers who send a significant part of their income to service debts. At the same time, it is the mortgage mainly forms the debt load of Russians.

In 2025, mortgage issuance may amount to 4 trillion rubles and reduce by 20% relative to 2024, VTB forecasts. In an environment of high interest rates, banks will focus on the quality of loan portfolios, rather than their growth, in order to prevent problems with client payments.

Developers will come under pressure in the new year due to reduced demand, believes Andrei Barkhota. Housing prices may drop by 15%.

Already now the cost of primary real estate is going down - in Moscow discounts can reach 40%, added the head of the Analytical Center Irn.ru Oleg Repchenko. So far there are no reasons for the acceleration of prices, but demand is cooling down because of expensive mortgages.

деньги
Photo: Izvestia/Eduard Kornienko

Housing lending in 2025 will mainly be conducted under government programs - their share may even reach 90%, concluded Absolut Bank. However, if the regulator starts lowering the key rate, Russians will direct part of the funds from deposits to buy real estate. Then the market could begin to recover by the end of the year.

фото

Live broadcast