Ruble strengthener: car loan disbursements up 70% in a year
Since the beginning of the year, banks have issued 70% more car loans than in the same period of 2023. This was reported to Izvestia by the United Credit Bureau, and the trend was confirmed by market participants. This segment is the only one that can show growth at the end of the year. People take loans for a car despite the fact that their full cost on average reaches 24%, and for five years a person will overpay almost twice. Demand this year was frantic, because buyers feared the increase in the key and the rise in the cost of scrappage duty, which is built into the cost of the car. What will happen to the market and car prices in 2025 - in the material "Izvestia".
Car loans in 2024
Since the beginning of the year, banks have issued 1.3 million car loans for 1.85 trillion rubles - this is 69% more than in the same period of 2023, according to the data of the OCB (Izvestia has the study). From January to November 2023, almost 760 thousand car loans for Br1.09 trillion were issued.
From January to September 2024, this segment grew faster than other types of lending, said the marketing director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), Alexei Volkov. But in the last two months, the issuance of loans for cars began to slow down. If in September the volume of such loans amounted to 226 billion rubles, in November it fell to 83 billion rubles, said the UCB.
The trend is confirmed in banks. VTB notes a two-fold increase in the issuance of car loans in January-November compared to 2023, in OTP Bank they increased by 3.8 times, and in "Rosbank Auto" - by 40%. At the same time, representatives of all organizations reported a noticeable cooling of demand in recent months.
But still car loans may be the only one of the largest retail segments that will show growth at the end of the year, believes economist Andrei Barkhota.
The average total cost of credit (TCC) for an auto loan in November was 23.8%, according to UCB data. In the same month, the average check on such a loan amounted to Br1.36 million, and the term - five years and seven months. So, the overpayment on such a car loan will average 81% - it will be close to double.
More than half of all car loans are taken by Russians for new cars, the UCB said. Most often people buy Chinese brands - most of the new Omoda, Chery, Geely, Haval and Changan are purchased on credit, said the press service of GC "AutoSpecCenter".
How will the utilization fee grow in 2025?
The rapid growth of the car loan market in 2024 is associated with increased customer activity in the first half of the year, said the press service of VTB.
At this time, the supply of new cars from dealers increased due to the growth of domestic production and supplies from China - as a result, Russians realized the pent-up demand, said Vitaly Kostyukevich, Director of Retail Products Department of Absolut Bank.
Consumers decided not to postpone the purchase of a car, because everyone expected an increase in the key rate (since the beginning of the year it has already increased by 5 p.p., up to 21%), explained the representative of "Rosbank Auto" Vyacheslav Yakubchik. In addition, Russians feared the acceleration of car prices due to the increase in the utilization fee.
The utilization fee is paid by importers for each car produced or imported into the Russian Federation. The collected funds are directed to domestic manufacturers in the form of subsidies, the amount of which is approximately equal to the levy. Since October 1, the index has increased by 70-85%, depending on the parameters of the car, for example, engine volume. From 2025 it will be indexed annually by 10-20%.
- This measure is designed to stop the growth of the market share of Chinese cars and support domestic brands. In fact, both are becoming more expensive," says Andrei Barkhota.
The introduction of scrappage fee has reduced the availability of imported cars, covering two-thirds of the market, said the expert. At the same time, domestic manufacturers are not ready to increase the volume of supply to such a level, which will cover the needs of the Russian consumer, believes Evgeny Mironyuk from "BKS World of Investments".
How the Central Bank will tighten car loan issuance
The dynamic growth of car lending contributes to the acceleration of prices in the country, that is why the Central Bank had to react, noted the representative of OTP Bank Andrei Zalish. As early as July 1, the regulator introduced surcharges to the risk-weight on such loans for borrowers who allocate more than 50% of their income for debt payments. Because of this, market participants have to allocate more reserves for these car loans, which makes them less profitable, explained Vyacheslav Yakubchik from Rosbank Auto. As a result, the base of potential borrowers is shrinking, and at the same time, issuance is slowing down.
Also in the second half of the year, the regulator limited the marginal interest rate on loans for cars, recalled Andrei Zalish. Because of this, banks can not set the interest rate above a certain level. Since November 15, the limit values of PSC are 28.6% and 32.5% for cars with mileage below and above 1 thousand kilometers, respectively.
In addition, in 2025, the Central Bank plans to introduce macroprudential limits (MPL) for car loans - such measures are already in place for consumer loans. They limit lending to high-risk borrowers (those who spend most of their income on loan repayments). If this happens, the car loan sector will be under even greater pressure, said Vyacheslav Yakubchik.
At the same time, the cost of funding for financial organizations is increasing - deposits are becoming more expensive due to high interest rates, which can reach 24-25%. Because of this, players have begun to suspend car loans - for example, this year it was done by Expobank, recalled Vyacheslav Yakubchik.
If from the beginning of 2025 the restriction on the interest rate for new cars will not be removed, and the key rate will increase (according to the consensus forecast of "Izvestia" it will be increased to 23% in December), the issuance of loans for cars will become even less profitable, said Vitaly Kostyukevich from Absolut Bank. In this case, the segment may collapse by more than 30% in 2025.
What will happen to car prices in 2025?
- In 2025, we expect further reduction in car lending," VTB's press service says.
Due to the high key rate, conditions will be tough next year as well, the press service of AutoSpecCenter Group of Companies said. The number of loan approvals will decrease, and borrowers with a high debt load will be even harder to get them because of the limits.
The pressure on the capital of banks will increase - they will have to increase the efficiency of business and refuse from low-margin and high-risk products - for example, with low down payment, specified in OTP Bank. All these factors may lead to the market decline next year by 13%.
- The transition to the recovery of the volume of issuance may begin closer to 2026, - said Nikita Kulagin, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Sovcombank.
In 2025, the car loan market may face stagflation - a situation when the decline in production is combined with rising prices, concluded Andrei Barkhota. He explained: due to the scrappage tax, fewer new cars will arrive in Russia, low demand and high debt burden on Russian manufacturers will slow down production at domestic plants, while prices will continue to rise, albeit more slowly.
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