Dystopian stories: Russians buy cars before the increase in payments
The demand of Russians for new cars in the fall of 2024 increased by a third compared to the same period last year, reported car sales sites. One of the main reasons is the growth of the utilization fee in October 2024 and its planned increase from January 1, 2025, experts said. In this regard, next year prices for cars will grow significantly, and the activity of buyers will fall significantly, experts believe. About what cars buy up Russians - in the material "Izvestia".
What cars have become the most popular
In the Russian Federation became more than a third more often interested in buying new cars in the fall of 2024 compared to the same period last year, reported "Izvestia" in aggregators to buy cars. Thus, according to "Avito Auto", the leader in demand among brands was "VAZ", which received a share of 23.6%. Also in the top five were Haval (10%), Chery (7.2%), Geely (7%) and Changan (5.4%).
Among the models, Lada Granta with 8.9% was the leader in terms of demand. In second place was another model of this brand - Vesta with 4.9%. The third line was occupied by Haval Jolion (4.3%), and the fourth - Moskvich 3 (2.7%). Niva Legend with 2.6% closes the top-5. Lada Largus became the leader in terms of demand dynamics - interest to it has increased more than 10 times.
Against the background of moderate growth of sales in the first half of the year, in the fall the market faced a sharp increase in demand due to the news about the rise in prices, said Deputy General Director of AG "Avilon" on sales of new cars Renat Tyukteev. Bank financing of transactions from individuals, he said, grew by 60% in the first 6-9 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. But it was quickly cooled by the Central Bank's new key rate of 21% in late fall.
According to Auto.ru, Russians were 27% more actively interested in new cars, while demand in the used car segment fell by 11%. As analysts believe, consumers began to choose new models more often due to the increase in supply from manufacturers, the release of new brands and a large number of special offers from dealers.
In the segment of used cars, Lada is again the leader in demand: its share amounted to 27.6%. Also in the top 5 were Toyota (6.9%), Hyundai (5.3%), Kia (5.3%), Volkswagen (4.7%), noted in "Avito Auto".
- "The fall of 2024 has clearly shown the transformation of the Russian car market," said Artem Khomutinnikov, head of sales of the New Cars division of the company. - We see a clear polarization between the traditional leader Lada, which occupies almost a quarter of the new car market, and the strong presence of Chinese brands, whose total share reaches 68%. Chinese concerns are strengthening their positions on the Russian market, including at the expense of new models.
Thevolume of supply in the segment of cars with mileage in the fall of 2024 is 53% higher than in the fall of 2023, said Auto.ru.
Despite the fact that new cars in showrooms undergo pre-sale preparation, experts advise to additionally check them during purchase. Carrying out an independent inspection will make sure that there are no hidden problems. It is also important to examine the documents, equipment and accuracy of the information provided by the dealer.
In the best case, the client can effectively check only the paintwork and whether the car was drowned, said Maxim Zheleznyak, Marketing and Sales Director of VGV brand. At official dealers everything should be transparent, because the negative from customers are monitored and in case of detection will be punished. Verification is a matter of trust and personal peace of mind.
Why people are interested in buying
Experts believe that the increase in the utilization fee in October 2024 and its expected increase from January 1, 2025 make buyers consider a new car as an investment. The utilization levy is aimed at getting consumers to buy new domestically produced cars.
- The increase in demand depends on many factors, including the economic situation in the country, the level of income of citizens and the availability of alternative means of transportation," believes auto expert Yulia Miloslavskaya. - The increase in the utilization fee will certainly affect the demand for new cars, as it will increase the final price for buyers. However, if consumers start to view new cars as a profitable investment, this will help to maintain a stable level of demand, even despite the increase in the levy.
In the fall, people typically run out of rotations, start paying various bonuses, and have a need for upgrades, since a car is most often purchased in the fall or spring, said auto expert Ivan Volin. Several factors influenced the increase in demand, added Yulia Miloslavskaya. Automakers have launched new models equipped with modern technologies and improved safety systems.
- A number of automakers launched special promotions and offers that made new cars more affordable," she added. - The increase in the utilization fee in October 2024 remains an important factor, and its expected increase from January 1, 2025 also played a role in boosting demand.
Industry representatives also noted buyers' fears of higher car prices due to the scrappage fee. Soon car sales will decline significantly, Maxim Zheleznyak believes. This is caused by the Central Bank rate and increased reserve requirements of banks.
- As a result, banks have tightened their requirements, and lending has fallen dramatically, and some banks have actually stopped it completely, " he added. - In December, the negative situation with lending was supplemented by the exchange rate. With a high interest rate and low ruble exchange rate, the market will not grow further and will rather decline in 2025.
In the first six months, the buying trend will be without growth, says Renat Tyukteev. Itis already obvious that the first quarter of next year will be worse than the same period of 2024. Sales at the end of 2025 will vary in the range of 1.3-1.4 million units.
