Arms slump: Italy may change stance on support for Ukraine
The Italian opposition party Five Star Movement will fight against arms supplies to Ukraine, a source in this political force told Izvestia. Meanwhile, the government of Giorgi Meloni is delaying the preparation of a new aid package for Ukraine in anticipation of US President Donald Trump taking office. Italy may become the first country to change the vector of foreign policy after the Republican's return to the White House. Italian arms deliveries to Ukraine are already inferior to other major EU countries, and Kiev is prohibited from using the weapons to strike Russian territory. Rome could cut supplies or curtail aid to Kiev altogether if signaled by the US.
Why Italy has banned Ukraine from striking Russia
"Supplying arms or long-range missiles represents escalation and remains the worst way to find a solution to the conflict. "The Five Star Movement will continue to fight in the European Parliament for peace both in Ukraine and the Middle East," a source told Izvestia in the Five Star Movement faction (the second largest opposition party in Italy) in the European Parliament.
According to him, a peaceful solution is the only real option to resolve the situation. "'Wall-to-wall' harms first of all Ukrainian citizens, who become victims of a conflict that brings death and destruction and has serious economic consequences," the interlocutor said.
After the start of the SWO, the then Italian government led by Mario Draghi, along with other Western countries, began supplying weapons to Ukraine. The Five Star Movement party opposed the increase in military spending, which led to the collapse of the government and early elections.
The Five Star Movement was defeated, and a coalition of right-wing parties led by Giorgi Meloni of the Brothers of Italy came to power. Henry Sardaryan, dean of the Faculty of Management and Politics at MGIMO, notes that right-wing voters had a favorable attitude toward Russia, unlike those who support left-wing forces. But the Brothers of Italy, once in power, reneged on many of their election promises.
The new prime minister fully supported arms deliveries to Kiev, while at the same time declaring her readiness to act as a "guarantor of peace in Ukraine." The Russian Foreign Ministry at the time rejected Rome's mediation efforts because Italy "helps the Kiev regime and takes an aggressive anti-Russian stance."
In total, Rome has sent nine aid packages to Ukraine totaling €2.2 billion, the Il Foglio newspaper said. According to the republic's Defense Minister Guido Crozetto, the volume of Italian military support to Ukraine from European countries is second only to that of Germany and Britain. The specific content of the supplies is classified, but the media reported on the transfer of SAMP/T air defense systems and Storm Shadow missiles of Anglo-French manufacture.
However, the Italian authorities have seriously restricted the Kiev authorities in the use of weapons. Unlike the UK and the US, Rome forbade Kiev from striking Russian territory with the transferred missiles. Against the backdrop of French President Emmanuel Macron's statements about the possibility of NATO troops in Ukraine, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said his country would not send its soldiers.
The relative moderation of the Italian position may be due to public opinion.
- The realities are such that the Italian population, even before the elections, which were won by Giorgia Meloni, was the most skeptical of all EU countries about the conflict in Ukraine and assumed that it was necessary to make any concessions, to divide this state, to do anything to stop the conflict with Russia," says MGIMO professor Henry Sardaryan.
Elena Maslova, associate professor of the Department of Integration Processes at MGIMO, notes that the issue of aid to Ukraine splits Italy into two parts. "Half of the population opposes arms supplies, expressing maximalist pacifism (because of the historical past associated with World War II. - Ed.). The other part supports arms deliveries, but only for defense purposes. There is also accumulated fatigue, Italians traditionally do not get involved in foreign policy issues, they are not particularly interested in such topics," the expert continued.
Will Italy's position change with the arrival of Trump?
The actions of Meloni's government with regard to Ukraine were largely due to the need to follow the general fairway of Western policy. Before coming to power, Italy's current prime minister had a different attitude toward Russia: in her autobiography in 2021, she wrote that Russia defends European values and Christianity, and in 2018 she congratulated Vladimir Putin on his re-election as president.
Meloni has managed to establish a pragmatic relationship with the current administration of US President Joe Biden, but ideologically the Italian prime minister is closer to Republican Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025. The U.S. president-elect and the Italian prime minister have already met on Dec. 7 in Paris and, according to Trump, found common ground.
After his visit to France, the Republican called for immediate peace talks on Ukraine and noted that the volume of US military aid could be reduced. Earlier, Italian media reported: the authorities in Rome are postponing the shipment of new weapons, waiting for the position of the future administration of the States.
According to Henry Sardarian, the Italian government is not considered to be one of the leaders in supporting Ukraine among European countries due to the rather limited capabilities of the military-industrial complex, as well as the position of the leadership of this state.
- Everything is known in comparison, but the difference is very big with France, Germany or the UK. With the election of Trump and the rhetoric that accompanied his election campaign, I think that the current government will have a good excuse to refocus the attention of the population," said the MGIMO professor.
In general, Italy may turn out to be the first country that will start changing its foreign policy after Trump's return to the White House. In addition, we should not forget that among the EU and NATO countries there are already states that do not adhere to a strict anti-Russian line.
An ideological ally of Trump and Meloni is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintains active contacts with Russia and opposes the militarization of Ukraine. In particular, he held a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin on December 11, "expressing interest in promoting a joint search for a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis." Hungary also proposed that Ukraine establish a cease-fire for Christmas and conduct a prisoner-of-war exchange, but Zelensky rejected the initiative, Orban said.
Slovakia also opposes arms supplies to Ukraine and favors a diplomatic solution to the crisis. In this context, Prime Minister Robert Fitzo can be considered part of the "anti-war Western club". By the way, Viktor Orban, who over the past few days has talked not only with Vladimir Putin but also with Donald Trump, will meet with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Thursday, a spokesman for the Hungarian prime minister said. It is known that Turkey is one of the NATO countries that has been calling for a resolution to the conflict on an official level since the beginning of the NWO. Moreover, in 2022, a series of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides took place in Istanbul, which almost resulted in an agreement. However, Kiev eventually refused to sign the document.
Italian political analyst Mark Bernardini does not rule out that Giorgia Meloni will stop supporting Kiev or at least seriously reduce it next year. "You can say one thing and tomorrow state the exact opposite, no one will pay attention to it. It's enough to remember that in 2014, while in opposition, she called Crimea Russian," he told Izvestia.
Elena Maslova emphasizes that Atlanticism and Europeanism are the two main constants of Italian politics, but at the same time Rome always takes into account the US position and is largely dependent on the views of the US administration. "But I wouldn't say that the whole of Europe will be at Trump's behest to do something definite, as a process is now unfolding to develop a common EU defense policy. At the same time, Italy is considered a weak link, because its population favors the earliest possible end of the conflict, not a victory for Ukraine," summarized Elena Maslova.
