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Military trade is appropriate: Ukraine may lower age of conscription in exchange for missiles
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his entourage consider the issue of lowering the mobilization age solely as an object for bargaining with the West, Rodion Miroshnyk, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador for special assignments on the Kiev regime's crimes, has told Izvestiya. In his opinion, Ukraine may still take such a step if it continues to receive long-range missiles. The West has long been urging Kiev to lower the mobilization age, including promising to provide recruits with the necessary equipment and weapons. The country's former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov believes that its authorities will eventually agree to lower the age limit, but this will only aggravate the demographic crisis. According to him, the population of Ukraine already does not exceed 19-20 million people, which is many times less than the official statistics.
Lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine
- Today, Zelensky and his entourage consider the issue of lowering the mobilization age solely as a bargaining item with the West: you give us long-range missiles or something else, and we will "in gratitude" lower the mobilization age. In any case - this is a resource that the Kiev rulers are dissolving today," Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
Vladimir Zelensky continues to insist on large arms deliveries from the US, particularly missiles. Meanwhile, judging by official statements, Kiev is not mobilizing 18-year-old citizens.
"The priority should be the supply of missiles and reducing Russia's military potential, not lowering the draft age in Ukraine," Zelensky wrote on social media. - We should not compensate for the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers."
The Ukrainian president has repeatedly stated that the problem of the AFU is the lack of armament and equipment of units, not the lack of personnel. On the contrary, the American side explains the failures of the AFU on the front by the insufficient manning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, given Zelensky's fickleness, the decision to lower the draft parameters may change at any moment. Most likely, the mobilization age will be lowered, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said in a conversation with Izvestia.
- Maybe not to 18 years old, they may first make it to 23, then again - to 21. The fact that they will go for it is 100%, but I do not think that they will go for it at once. There will be a gradual decrease," he predicts.
The day before, the State Department assured that Washington would equip and arm recruits with everything they need if Kiev decides to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 18. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, however, noted that the final decision on the composition of the armed forces should be made by the Kiev authorities. It was reported earlier that in late November, the Joe Biden administration urged Kiev to lower the conscription criteria as soon as possible to address the military shortage.
The constant pressure of the authorities in Washington on Ukraine should be given special attention. The fact is that throughout the conflict, Kyiv's complete dependence on Western, and in particular American, resources is evident. And despite the fact that there have been contradictions between the two during some stretches of Ukrainian-Western interaction, Zelensky will never go for a confrontation with the US and the EU.
- Ukrainian elites and Zelensky personally are the most Western-dependent part of Ukraine; if there is a split, Zelensky will split from Ukraine rather than the West. During his entire period at the helm he demonstrates that he is ready to pay for his being in power with Ukraine and its people. They are just a resource for him, which no one dared to sell off before him," Rodion Miroshnyk believes.
The Trump factor in Zelensky's actions
Today's actions of Kiev many connect with the future arrival in the White House of Donald Trump, who may demand from Ukraine to start peace talks with Russia. After a trilateral meeting between Trump, Macron and Zelensky in Paris on December 7, the US president-elect said that the Ukrainian leader was ready for a ceasefire and a deal, although Zelensky himself then rejected the US politician's call for a ceasefire and ignored his words about possible agreements.
This misunderstanding of the future of the American president and the leader of Ukraine once again casts doubt on whether the Republican will continue the current administration's line of support for Kiev. Trump can most likely serve as a moderator of the future negotiation process, according to Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
- He seems ready to withdraw support for Ukraine, but the hawks who sit in Congress, including many representatives of the Republican Party, are not ready. Nor is he ready to change the Russophobic rhetoric in Europe. And the president-elect himself is very likely to dump Ukraine only in exchange for something, such as if Russia were to reduce its partnership with China. Such a tidbit, a territory comparable in area to Germany and France, cannot be given up so easily. One way or another, everyone is now waiting for concrete political steps by the new Trump administration," he explained to Izvestia.
However, if one administration now promises to arm more troops, it is not certain that the other, i.e. Trump's team, will fulfill all this. As a result, Zelensky may cause himself image damage.
It is still difficult to judge what Trump's position on lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine will be. On the one hand, given his anti-war rhetoric, he is in principle against the continuation of the conflict and senseless Ukrainian deaths. On the other hand, the Republican could continue the line of the current administration and call for a change in the conscription framework with a message to Ukraine to be able to defend itself on its own. He has said something similar to NATO, criticizing the North Atlantic Alliance for not contributing enough to its own defense.
Why Kiev is slow to lower the draft age
Another reason for Zelensky's refusal to raise the mobilization age is the demographic situation in the country. Ukraine has taken the first place in the ranking in terms of mortality rate in the world. According to former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, the natural mortality rate, excluding frontline casualties, will exceed 500,000 people this year, while the birth rate for the year will be only 160,000. In addition, immigration and the military conflict must be taken into account.
- Ukraine is already on the verge of demographic disaster, and the Ukrainian people are on the verge of their historical preservation, but the West does not care at all. They have paid to use this nation as they see fit, and they do. If it is necessary to utilize "every last Ukrainian" - they will do it without a shadow of a doubt. For the West, the Ukrainian people are not categorized as "value", but rather as "expendable material"," Rodion Miroshnyk said.
The day before, the Ukrainian Ombudsman for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, emphasized that the population of Ukraine in 2024 has decreased to 35.8 million people, that is, by 6.2 million in two years. According to the ombudsman's forecasts, by 2051 it may decrease to 25.2 million. However, the former Ukrainian prime minister believes that these figures are greatly underestimated.
- Ukraine does not have 35 million. They count, most likely, with the lost territories and maybe with Crimea. But no matter how you count it, right now the closest to a reliable estimate is somewhere between 19-20 million people controlled by the Kiev regime. That's a more optimal and realistic figure. If they had 35 million, there would be no problems with the same mobilization. But they do," Mykola Azarov believes.
Vladimir Zelensky signed the previous decree on lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25 in early April. And on May 18, the law on strengthening conscription came into force. The possibility of demobilization, which the Ukrainian military and their families were counting on, is not provided for by the law. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry in general did not hide the fact that since May 18 "the end of that quiet life", which was previously lived by a part of the country's population, is coming.
Zelensky's refusal to toughen mobilization at the current stage is related to the fact that he fears a social explosion, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries Volodymyr Zharikhin told Izvestiya.
- Young people are the most active and uncompromising, so unlike the middle-aged and older people who are now being drafted, it will be difficult to get along with them," the expert said.
In general, public dissatisfaction with Vladimir Zelensky has recently increased. "The dynamics on the fronts is understandable. The process that is happening in Ukraine is also understandable. There is fatigue from Zelensky. This fatigue is growing. Judging by the information, statistics, the number of people who no longer accept such a permanent war is increasing. And we also see that the mood in European countries is changing," the Kremlin's official spokesman, Dmitriy Peskov, said.
In addition, in Ukraine, discontent is associated with corruption scandals and the actions of territorial manning centers, this is an analogue of the military recruitment office.
- This is a common terror. People are caught by specially trained people, in each city there are five to ten groups that just go and catch men. No one has long been ceremonious - they beat them up, throw them on a bus and take them to the basement, in the basement they do psychological and physical "work" and then go to the front. Without training and equipment," a source in the Verkhovna Rada told Izvestiya.
At the same time, de facto, the age of conscription does not matter; laws and regulations play a purely formal role for the authorities, the interlocutor added.
Rodion Miroshnik believes that Zelensky's concern is not popular outrage, but a drop in his ratings. However, if there are no elections in the near future, then a drop in ratings can be accepted if they are exchanged for money and weapons, the diplomat summarized. The media earlier wrote that presidential elections in Ukraine could be held in 2025. There was also talk of a past vote, but it was canceled.
