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At the end of 11 months, the Russian budget deficit amounted to 0.2% of GDP. In monetary terms, this is 389 billion rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance. Whether it will be possible to achieve a surplus at the end of the year, what is the forecast for the next year, what items of expenditure have become the most deficit and how to reduce them in the future - read in the material of "Izvestia".

Fractions of a percent

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the federal budget of Russia was executed with a deficit of 0.2% of GDP, or 389 billion rubles. According to the ministry's forecast, in December, expenditures will exceed revenues by 2.9 trillion rubles. And the deficit will amount to 1.7% of GDP, or Br3.296 trillion.

At the same time, the budget was executed with a surplus of Br124.2 billion from January to October, contrary to the deficit forecast (Br220 billion).

Министерство финансов
Photo: Izvestia/Eduard Kornienko

From January to November 2024, the revenue part of the budget amounted to Br32 trillion 650 billion (+25.8% against the previous year), while the expenditure - Br33 trillion 39 billion (+23.7%). At the same time, oil and gas revenues grew by 25.7%, while non-oil and gas revenues - by 25.8% (Br10.341 trillion and Br22 trillion 309 billion, respectively).

The allowable budget deficit in spring was approved at the level of 1.1% of GDP (Br2.12 trillion).

The dynamics of revenue receipts and financing of expenditures in January-November 2024 indicates the fulfillment of the federal budget in accordance with the target parameters of the structural deficit, the Finance Ministry told Izvestia.

"The obligations laid down in the budget are being fulfilled by the state. According to preliminary estimates, the budget deficit at the end of 2024 is planned at the rate of 3.3 trillion rubles, or 1.7% of GDP. Next year, the budget deficit is expected to be Br1.2 trillion," noted in the ministry.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the parameters of the revenue base and expenditure commitments defined in the law on the federal budget for 2025-2027 provide the primary structural balance from 2025 in accordance with the parameters of the budget rule.

"This will contribute to strengthening the restraining effect of budget sector operations on inflationary processes, and on the medium-term horizon will support the stability of the budget system and strengthen the macroeconomic and financial stability of the Russian Federation," the ministry summarized.

"Izvestia" sent inquiries to the Ministry of Economic Development and the Bank of Russia, but at the time of publication no answers had been received.

The last month is the most difficult

December normally accounts for 16-20% of annual federal budget expenditures, while revenues account for only 10-15%, which is why the annual deficit usually only grows in December, explains Dmitry Kulikov, director of the sovereign and regional ratings group at ACRA.

Рубль
Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergei Konkov

- In 2024, the deficit is very likely to exceed 1.5% of GDP, and next year it may be less than 1.5% of GDP if the budget forecast is fulfilled," the expert believes.

Despite the income above the planned due to the weakening of the ruble, oil and gas revenues alone are not enough, says Olga Orlova, head of the "Industry" direction at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies.

- When a country's prosperity depends on a single export resource, nothing good can be expected. Russia has done a lot to remedy the situation: it has announced a course on import substitution, diversifies income items, increases the tax burden of citizens and businesses, etc. However, the country's expenditures in the short term will not return as investments, as it is planned to spend most of all on social and defense needs," she comments.

According to her, in addition to income from exports, the state is betting on domestic reserves.

Контейнеры
Photo: Izvestia/Mitriy Korotayev

- In 2025, tax pressure on citizens and businesses will increase: a progressive personal income tax rate will be introduced, businesses on OSNO will pay more profit tax (from 20 to 25%), some simplified taxpayers will begin to transfer VAT, requirements for applicants for preferential tax regimes will become stricter, and citizens will pay for excess profits from deposits, etc., - says Olga Orlova.

Going according to plan

Some of the interviewed experts neutrally assess the impact of budget execution on the economy.

- Large-scale spending and withdrawal of funds from the National Wealth Fund (Br1.3 trillion is planned) are scheduled for December. In addition, borrowing through OFZs is successfully carried out. The sale of OFZs to banks (and they are the main buyers of domestic government debt) and the channeling of funds from the National Wealth Fund into the economy is pure emission," Vladimir Yeremkin, a researcher at the IPEI structural research laboratory of the Presidential Academy, told Izvestia.

Рубль
Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Lantyukhov

According to him, the budget has not yet put serious pressure on inflation, and the main channel, according to the Central Bank, is the continued increase in lending to the corporate sector.

- As for the budget execution for 12 months, at the moment there are no serious obstacles to the successful execution of both revenue and expenditure items, so the final values will be close to the plan, - he summarizes.

The Bank of Russia literally in a few movements showed that everything is under control and the dollar for 200 will not be, as it was already in 2022, said the publication managing partner of the analytical agency "VMT Consult" Ekaterina Kosareva.

- The growth of exports primarily indicates that companies are confidently developing, and the domestic market - with the abundance of sales channels, which gives the Internet trade - is no longer enough. The growing number of such companies is a sign of business health. I should also note that exports are increasing, rather in spite of the global situation. Companies are finding safe transaction routes," she says.

According to the analyst, indirectly, the development of exports has a positive impact on both the domestic market and imports.

Валюта
Photo: Izvestia/Eduard Kornienko

- As a rule, export-oriented companies are sharpened to comply with international standards of production, and their products have better quality characteristics than those who work exclusively in Russia, and over time the technological lag becomes visible. Companies that diversify their sales are more competitive. And imports are growing due to the fact that, developing, companies order more equipment, consumables, components, possibly raw materials abroad," she explained.

Tax growth for individuals

Experts have previously called one of the possible tools to regulate the economy an increase in the tax burden on citizens.

- Such a trend has already begun, and today for individuals it may manifest itself in the form of an increase in personal income tax for certain categories of citizens or the introduction of new tax mechanisms, for example, on real estate or luxury. For businesses, there may be changes in profit tax rates or tougher conditions for the use of preferential regimes, - said Deputy Director of the Banking Institute for Development Yulia Makarenko.

НДФЛ
Photo: RIA Novosti/Nina Zotina

Other sources for reducing the budget deficit, such as large-scale privatization or borrowing, do not seem so sustainable and manageable to the authorities yet, she added. In the long term, they may be used, but the current situation forces the authorities to act precisely and quickly, increasing tax pressure.

Thus, the upward trend in taxes, which started in 2024, is likely to continue in 2025, the expert summarized.

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