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- Loans to the public: Russians have accumulated loans worth a record 38 trillion rubles
Loans to the public: Russians have accumulated loans worth a record 38 trillion rubles
The volume of household loans reached a record Br38 trillion at the beginning of November. This is about a quarter of the country's GDP. However, the pace of loan issuance has sharply decreased in recent months amid the increase in the key rate three times in a row. Since the beginning of the year, the indicator has increased by 4 trillion rubles, but, as follows from the Central Bank data analyzed by Izvestia, in October the volume of loans of Russians increased by only 170 billion. However, even this slowdown is not enough to cool inflation, experts believe. They expect the key rate to be raised in December. Whether there are now risks of high creditworthiness of citizens and whether the overdue debt will grow - in the material "Izvestia".
Who may not be approved for a loan now
At the beginning of November, the total volume of loans to Russians exceeded 38 trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank. At the same time, the pace of lending to citizens has declined sharply in recent months against the backdrop of an active increase in the key rate. Last time - on October 25 - the regulator raised it from 19% to a record 21%.
In October, the volume of loans to the population increased only by 170 billion rubles, and in September - by 189 billion. Prior to this figure increased much faster, for example, in August - by 412 billion. In total, since the beginning of the year, the total debt of Russians, including repayment of loans increased by 4 trillion.
The market of lending to individuals in recent months is really slowing down, confirmed in the press service of the bank "Zenith". They added: it is especially noticeable in the segments of consumer loans and mortgages.
The main reasons are the increase in the key rate and tightening macroprudential regulation, explained Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst of Sovcombank.
Since July 1, 2024, the regulator has increased macro surcharges for loans with a total cost of credit 25-40% (this figure takes into account not only the interest rate, but also all the additional fees that are required of citizens in the design of the product, such as payment for insurance).
Macroprudential surcharges increase the load on the bank's capital when issuing a certain type of loan: the higher the value, the more capital reserves are required. As of September 1, the Central Bank introduced surcharges on almost all unsecured consumer loans. This will reduce the attractiveness of such loans for banks, as explained in the materials of the Central Bank.
Also for the IV quarter of 2024, the regulator has tightened restrictions on the issuance of unsecured loans to borrowers with a high level of debt burden. So, for example, banks are allowed to issue such loans to Russians with PDN more than 80% (that is, those who spend more than 80% of income to repay debts), but the share of such loans in the total volume of loans can not exceed 3%. Cash loans to citizens who spend on debt repayment from 50 to 80% of income, should take a share of a maximum of 15% of the bank.
With the help of such measures, the Central Bank is trying to reduce the issuance of loans to risky borrowers, and by raising the rate - to slow inflation. Earlier, the regulator conducted a soft monetary policy, but then prices began to accelerate due to overheated demand, said Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, speaking at the forum "Russia Calling!" on December 4. She added: by raising the key rate it was possible to prevent the emergence of inflationary spiral (this is a cyclical process in which rising prices give rise to new price increases).
In addition, lending has cooled down in recent months due to the end of the mass program of preferential mortgages for new buildings at 8% from July 1. The authorities have also tightened the conditions for family and IT mortgages.
What the Central Bank is doing to reduce inflation
Despite the record high key, the rate of reduction in lending to the population is still insufficient to significantly slow down inflation, according to Maxim Kolyadov, head of retail banking at the insurance broker AMsec24. In his opinion, a sharper reduction in the issuance of new loans to reduce consumer demand would be optimal. According to Rosstat, inflation in Russia from November 26 to December 2 amounted to 0.5% after 0.36% in the previous week. At the same time, price growth has reached 8.3% since the beginning of the year.
Inflationary risks still remain, agreed Anna Zemlyanova from Sovcombank. According to her, they include, for example, wage growth due to the situation on the labor market and soft budget policy.
In addition, the corporate lending market continues to boom - the growth is 2-3% per month (19% in total for 10 months of 2024), added the press service of Zenith Bank. This looks impressive compared to the growth of 12% in the retail segment. Such a trend in lending to legal entities is one of the key drivers of inflation.
Most likely, at the December meeting of the Central Bank will again raise the key rate, this time - to 22-23%, estimated in the press service of the credit organization. They explained: to the previous pro-inflationary factors added the weakening of the ruble, which will provoke an additional rise in prices in the next two to three months.
The regulator may raise the rate to 23% per annum at once, expects Anna Zemlyanova. In her opinion, macroprudential regulation will also become stricter. The Central Bank will impose restrictions on issuing new loans to large corporate borrowers.
- The Central Bank and the government will have to find a balance between economic development and reducing inflation to the target 4%. Therefore, at the first meeting in 2025, the Central Bank may stop raising rates in this cycle, which will be an important turning point for the market, - said portfolio manager of MC "Alfa Capital" Dmitry Skryabin.
Are there now risks of high borrowing of the population?
Over ten months, banks issued loans worth Br12 trillion, Frank RG estimated. According to Georgy Gorshkov, Deputy President and Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, at the end of the year credit Russians will issue loans for 13.3 trillion. This is 18% lower than in the previous year.
At the same time, the total volume of household loans already accounts for about a quarter of Russia's GDP, emphasized Maxim Kolyadov of AMsec24 Insurance Brokerage. In his opinion, high indebtedness of citizens carries serious risks. A large number of debts can lead to financial difficulties, especially in conditions of economic instability and key rate growth.
The level of delinquency is increasing in the segment of credit cards, said Yuri Belikov, managing director of Expert RA rating agency. He added: people are starting to use credit limits instead of new consumer loans, which banks refuse to issue.
In other segments, the levels of overdue debt will also grow, especially given the reduction in new loans (previously it "diluted" the overdue rate), says Yuri Belikov.
Portfolio quality slightly decreased in October, but not critically, emphasized Anna Zemlyanova. At the same time, the Bank of Russia has significantly tightened regulation to limit risks for highly indebted borrowers.
