Street against the dream: what is happening on the Georgian Maidan
A political crisis continues to rage in Georgia, sparked by the government's moratorium on EU accession talks. Street rallies have been going on for five days in the center of Tbilisi, and other alarming signals for the authorities have also appeared. For example, dozens of officials from the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have spoken out against the ruling party. Experts, however, believe that this is not enough to change the government. "Izvestia" looked into the situation.
Opposition actions end closer to dawn
Opposition street riots have been going on in Georgia for almost a week, during which time the events have become somewhat routine. Traditionally in the evening opposition supporters gather near the Parliament building on Rustaveli Avenue. The bulk of those who came chant slogans, sometimes singing Georgian songs. The more aggressive minority at this time launch fireworks in the direction of the police, blind the law enforcers with laser pointers, and try to build barricades of benches and trash cans.
After midnight, the police traditionally begin to disperse the protesters, using water cannons and tear gas. Most of the protesters calmly retreat, but young people in raincoats and gas masks try to "shoot back" with stones and bottles, then they also disperse. It is known that during another round of confrontation on the night of December 3, police detained 34 people, 26 people, including three law enforcers, went to the medics.
At the same time, some innovations were recorded over the past 24 hours. First, the police did not wait until late at night, and began to disperse the gatherings earlier than usual. Secondly, some opposition resources stopped filming the rallies from quadrocopters. According to journalists, the law enforcers interfere with the flights by using jammers. Supporters of the authorities believe that the real reason is that the footage from the copters refutes statements about the off-scale number of protesters.
Finally, a new phenomenon was the active participation of children and teenagers in the protests. Some of them threw bottles at the police, others complained to journalists that they were suffocated by the "atmosphere of unfreedom," while others went to the extreme of refusing to attend classes. Apparently, the reason for this was the appeal of opposition President Salome Zurabishvili, who had earlier called on schoolchildren to join the rallies. Georgian lawyers emphasize that the guardianship authorities may have questions for the parents of the minors.
Officials are also revolting against the authorities
The political crisis in Georgia is raging not only on the street, but also in high offices. It is known that dozens of acting officials have rebelled against the government and the ruling party. Thus, more than 200 employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs signed a petition demanding not to deviate from the course of European integration and to stop dispersing rallies. Georgia's ambassadors to the US, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Netherlands and Bulgaria, as well as the acting ambassador to Italy resigned in protest.
More than fifty defense ministry officials also spoke in favor of continuing negotiations with the European Union. "European and Euro-Atlantic integration is the non-alternative way to strengthen the country's security and sovereignty. This course is enshrined in the Constitution and a multitude of conceptual documents at national and departmental levels. We remain committed to these obligations," their collective letter reads.
Similar appeals were made by employees of the Constitutional Court, employees of the National Bank, about 120 employees of the Tbilisi City Hall and a number of other state structures. Finally, big business was not left aside. Thus, the largest banks Bank of Georgia and TBC, cell phone operators Magti and Silknet, car dealership Tegeta, real estate developer ORBI Group declared their support to the protesters. A joint statement demanding further negotiations with the EU was also published by 13 business associations.
Western structures are also exerting serious pressure on Tbilisi. Thus, the U.S. State Department announced the suspension of strategic partnership, and the British Foreign Ministry called on Tbilisi to listen to the demands of the protesters. The new head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas allowed the introduction of sanctions against Georgia, while Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have already imposed their own restrictions, including banning the entry of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Vakhtang Gomelauri and the founder of the Georgian Dream Bidzina Ivanishvili.
The Georgian authorities are not backing down from their positions. Thus, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that there will be no early parliamentary elections in the country, and the ruling party will not go to negotiations with the radical opposition. "The National Maidan in Georgia failed despite coordinated attempts. Politicians and leaders of rich NGOs, who organized the violence while they themselves hid in their offices, will not be able to escape responsibility for these events," he noted.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
Tbilisi also believes that next year relations with Western countries will improve. The fact is that in a month and a half, President-elect Donald Trump, who is ideologically close to the "Georgian Dream" and also advocates peace and traditional values, will come to power in the United States. "We will wait until January 20, when the inauguration of the new US president will take place, and we hope that this fact will significantly change the interaction with the US and the EU. We had problems with the current administration, it directly affected our relations," Kobakhidze noted.
At the same time in the coming days the crisis may aggravate even more. The fact is that presidential elections are scheduled for December 14. The current head of state Salome Zurabishvili has already announced that she considers the current parliament illegitimate, and therefore she is not going to leave her post. The ruling party emphasizes that the vote will be held in any case, the candidate for the highest office will be MP and former footballer Mikhail Kavelashvili. In such conditions the electoral procedure will probably become another reason for protests and unrest.
What experts say
Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Issues at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, sees no signs of a split in the Georgian power vertical.
- The key issue is the position of the police, army and special services, as they are the ones who ensure the forceful stability of the government. And so far there are no signals of disloyalty from these structures. As for statements and dismissals of individual clerks, this is not a problem at all. "The Georgian Dream would have had to clean up the state apparatus in any case, and now this cleaning is happening by itself, without outside efforts," he emphasizes.
Political analyst Archil Sikharulidze believes that the Georgian ruling party will retain power.
- Pogroms in Tbilisi are organized by a limited group of extremists numbering up to 500 people. Every day the resources of this group are being depleted - some are detained, some are simply tired. But law enforcement officers are doing their work quite calmly and systematically. Therefore, I do not see any serious threats to the party of power. I think that in the near future the opposition will try to take advantage of the presidential elections in order to raise the degree of confrontation even more. But this move is unlikely to bring results as Salome Zurabishvili has seriously discredited herself with her attempt to involve schoolchildren in protests," he says.
Political scientist Shota Apkhaidze says that the situation of the ruling party is difficult.
- One should realize that not only the opposition, but also a lot of people far from politics and many young people are taking to the streets. Some see their future in Europe, others are dissatisfied with the socio-economic situation and corruption in the country. According to my estimates, the society is divided about 50/50, half supporting the current authorities, half against them. Accordingly, the opposition's chances of success are quite serious, they have the electorate, they have the support of business and Western structures," he assures.
Apkhaidze adds that in such conditions it is difficult to advise Georgian Dream.
- We have a small country, everyone here is related to each other, no one will risk unrestrained violence. Saakashvili tried to do that and ended badly. Perhaps the authorities should now isolate the leaders of opposition parties, who are in fact Saakashvili's criminal accomplices, they are the ones muddying the waters. But I am not sure that this will yield results either," he argues.
