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Militant opposition: Georgian presidential election could deepen divisions in the country
The pro-Western opposition in Georgia may not recognize the results of the presidential election. On November 27, the ruling Georgian Dream party nominated MP Mikhail Kavelashvili for the country's highest office. He is known for criticizing the West and accusing the United States of wanting to open a "second front" against Russia on Georgian territory. Voting is scheduled for December 14. For the first time the head of the republic will be determined by a new system: through the electoral college, which a priori makes it difficult for incumbent leader Salome Zurabishvili to run. How the relations between the parliament and the president will develop and whether we should expect a split - in Izvestia's article.
What is Mikhail Kavelashvili known for?
After the parliamentary elections in Georgia, which were confidently won by the ruling "Georgian Dream", the country is actively preparing for the presidential elections to be held on December 14. Back in 2017, Georgia abandoned the mixed system, becoming a parliamentary republic, so this time the head of state will be determined for the first time not by universal and popular vote, but through a panel of 300 electors. It will include 150 deputies of the parliament and 150 deputies of local authorities. In addition, the president will be elected for a five-year term, not six years, as it was previously.
On November 27, Georgian Dream submitted the candidacy of MP Mikhail Kavelashvili for the post of president. At the same time, earlier media reported that former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili could become the main candidate. The politician, by the way, has repeatedly advocated the restoration of economic and trade ties with Russia.
Supporters of the Georgian Dream party celebrate at the party headquarters after the announcement of exit poll results in the parliamentary elections in Tbilisi, Georgia, October 26, 2024
It should be noted that before entering politics Mikhail Kavelashvili was a famous soccer player. It is noteworthy that he played in the position of striker and scored nine goals for the Georgian national team, which was one of the best results in the history of soccer in this country. In 2016, he got into the Georgian parliament, where he was elected as a deputy from the Georgian Dream. Six years later, Mikhail Kavelashvili and several other MPs left the Dream to continue working as independent MPs and voice their opinions without embarrassing the ruling party. At the same time, Kavelashvili and his supporters founded the organization "Power of the People" and then a party of the same name, which became known for its anti-Western sentiments. Thus, the "Power of the People" repeatedly criticized the United States, accusing it of intending to overthrow the ruling party, return to power the pro-Western force of former President Mikheil Saakashvili's "United National Movement" and the desire to drag Georgia into the Ukrainian conflict. In October 2024, Mikhail Kavelashvili was again elected as a deputy from the Georgian Dream.
It is possible that it was Mikhail Kavelashvili's foreign policy views that became the decisive factor for the ruling party to choose him as a presidential candidate. It is worth recalling that the Georgian Dream also stated that Western countries are hoping to open a "second front" against Russia in the republic. Due to the ongoing conflict between Dream and President Salome Zurabishvili, it is obvious that the party's founder Bidzina Ivanishvili now needs cooperation with persons with similar views to Dream.
July 1, 1995. Mikhail Kavelashvili as a striker of the Spartak-Alania soccer team (Vladikavkaz)
By the way, earlier the current head of state admitted that she might run for a second term, but only if the opposition wins the parliamentary elections. Now theoretically Zurabishvili's candidacy can be nominated by opposition members of the board. They can be representatives of local self-governing bodies, if not members of the parliament who are giving up their mandates. However, the opposition may not participate in the elections at all, as they have previously declared the Georgian government illegitimate. It is still difficult to say how relations between the parliament and the future president will develop, Georgian political scientist Petre Mamradze told Izvestia.
- It is difficult to predict how relations will develop now. In this case, the new candidate has shown himself as a loyal party member all the years. We can hope that he will remain as firm and steadfast," he said.
Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Salome Zurabishvili's candidacy for the 2018 elections was supported by the Georgian Dream, as was the candidacy of the previous president, Giorgi Margvelashvili. After the elections, the conflict between the parliament and the president may end, Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector at the IMEMO RAS, noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
- If the parliament and the president follow the same political line, it is unlikely to expect a conflict. But it should be taken into account that the former and current presidents also started as protégés of the ruling party and worked in close tandem with the parliament in the first years. But now there are no prerequisites for a conflict between the new candidate and the parliament," says the expert.
How the opposition will react to the election results
According to the law, the first session of parliament is convened and opened by the president, but November 25 was the first time in history when the head of state did not appoint it. This, however, is not surprising as President Salome Zurabishvili has been in open conflict with the Parliament for a long time. It is noteworthy that the presidential elections were initially supposed to be held in January 2025, but the Parliament decided to hold them before the end of this year.
Salome Zurabishvili became president in 2018. Over the past five years, her relationship with the Georgian Dream has grown from a minor disagreement into a real conflict. Zurabishvili has repeatedly criticized the ruling party, emphasizing that it pursues "hostile and ill-considered policies." The president is considered the leader of the opposition and favors strengthening cooperation with the West. Although the Georgian Dream positions itself as a pro-Western party, the republic's relations with the European Union have rapidly deteriorated in recent years. This was influenced, among other things, by the adoption of the law "On Transparency of Foreign Influence", as well as the approval of the law banning LGBT propaganda (the movement is recognized as extremist in Russia) at the Dream's request. After that, the EU announced the suspension of Georgia's integration into the union at the opening stage of accession negotiations.
President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili
Dream explained its actions by the fact that after the start of the EEU Western countries want to drag Georgia into the Ukrainian conflict and demand to join sanctions against Russia. At the same time, Moscow remains Tbilisi's most important trade and economic partner, so such a step would lead to dire consequences for Georgia.
On the eve of the parliamentary elections, the conflict between the Georgian Dream and the president has worsened. In 2023, the ruling party initiated impeachment proceedings against Zurabishvili in parliament because she had made foreign visits without the government's permission. However, the ruling party did not have enough votes to dismiss the president.
After the results of the October 26 parliamentary elections were announced, the president said that the vote had been rigged and called on residents to come out to rallies. Thus, two days later, opposition protests began in the republic, which are still going on today. The protesters demand a repeat election. By the way, the first parliamentary session was also accompanied by unrest, the opposition intended to disrupt it.
However, the situation was actively fueled in the West. OSCE observers said that the voting was generally well organized, but they noted an allegedly tense and pressurized atmosphere before election day, as well as several cases of intimidation and procedural inconsistencies during the voting day. Hours after the observers spoke, Brussels and Washington called for investigations into voting irregularities. Individual Western politicians also made unfriendly statements. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that now he does not believe in Tbilisi's European future. Sweden announced that it was suspending all cooperation with Tbilisi.
At the moment the protests in Tbilisi can hardly be called numerous, they are rather localized. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the presidential elections will provoke new unrest or affect its scale in any way, believes Petre Mamradze.
- Now the opposition will mock the chosen candidate and try to find reasons to pick on him. In general, it will be impossible to find a presidential candidate that would suit the opposition," he said.
Although the president in Georgia does not determine the main vectors of the state's foreign and domestic policy, his figure certainly plays an important role in the country's affairs. It is possible that the opposition may declare the new president illegitimate.
- It will not recognize the results of these presidential elections, which is logical. However, there will be no mass protests, as the key agenda is the parliamentary election, while the presidential election is more of an aftertaste," Vadim Mukhanov said.
It is quite likely that the possibility of protests will depend on the conclusion of the EU technical mission, which will go to the republic to assess the results of the parliamentary elections. Its positive summary will a priori mean that the West agrees with the voting results, and in fact the opposition will not have any support from outside.
