Very vague matters: anti-government rallies radicalize in Georgia
Anti-government demonstrations and riots have intensified in Georgia in recent days. On the night of December 1, protesters in Tbilisi damaged the parliament building, attempting to set it on fire and breaking windows. The protests engulfed the republic's capital following the government's decision to postpone the issue of European integration until 2028. The new head of European diplomacy Kaya Kallas has already threatened the Georgian authorities with sanctions. Meanwhile, the country's President Salome Zurabishvili announced her refusal to leave her post after the expiration of her term of office in December this year. At the same time, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the unrest will most likely not lead to a coup d'état.
Continuation of unrest in Tbilisi
The protests that began after the Georgian Dream won the parliamentary elections have noticeably radicalized in recent days and have become more like an attempted coup d'état. On the night of December 1, protesters attempted to set fire to the Georgian parliament building by throwing Molotov cocktails through the windows. The rioters damaged 48 rooms of the parliament by attacking the buildings from outside and breaking windows. The prime minister of the republic said that the current situation is a consequence of "pre-organized and planned violence of the radical opposition."
More than 50 law enforcers have already been injured as a result of the riots. Georgian special forces were repeatedly forced to use tear gas and water cannons against the crowd, which resorted to violent methods.
The reason for the tightening of the protests was the announcement by the country's Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze that the process of European integration was being suspended. The pro-Western opposition, now effectively led by President Salome Zurabishvili, disagrees with the government's decision to postpone the issue until 2028.
The protesters are still demanding new parliamentary elections where they want to see the results they want. On December 14, the electoral college, half of which consists of members of parliament, will have to elect the president of Georgia. Most likely, the current head of state will not be able to be re-elected for a second term because of the conflict with the ruling Georgian Dream.
On November 30, Zurabishvili said that she would not leave the presidency despite the end of her term, as she considers the new composition of the parliament illegitimate. In her view, the Georgian Dream's decision to suspend negotiations on the country's EU membership "has put a final end to the constitutional coup launched several months ago by the incumbent authorities."
The protests will gradually die out, all activists will be detained, and criminal cases will be brought against the leaders, said Nikolai Silayev, a senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Issues at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
- If Salome Zurabishvili does not announce her resignation, she will become a criminal defendant for usurpation or seizure of power. The opposition will not be satisfied with any new candidate. The opposition wants another election where they win. No sensible government would agree to that under threat of trashing the city center. If it agrees, it's no longer a government," Nikolai Silayev told Izvestia.
After the parliamentary elections Salome Zurabishvili called for protests and now she is calling for riots. Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector of IMEMO RAN, in his turn, noted that the protests are observed mainly in the capital. The situation in other Georgian cities is relatively calm. The expert believes that by the new year the situation may move to the stage of détente.
- I think that they will not spread to the whole country. Unless they cause resonance, but they do not cause it now. At most they may affect two or three major cities in Georgia. Although Kutaisi, the second most populous city in Georgia, is silent. In Batumi there were protests only one day. But so far it is not just premature to talk about it, but from the category of fantasy," he told Izvestia. - Georgian Dream has support, and Zurabishvili is making adventurous moves, which only adds fuel to the fire. It is nonsense that the president is calling the population to illegal actions and is participating in rallies. She realizes that her powers will end and that is why she is trying to sell herself - to the political forces of Georgia or to the European Union is the question. The feeling is that she was counting on something, perhaps some kind of offer from Europe.
How the EU reacts to the protests
At the end of 2023 Georgia received the status of a candidate for EU accession, but six months later the EU put the European integration process on pause. At the same time, EU-Tbilisi relations began to cool down in early 2022, when the current government was urged to open a "second front" against Russia. Georgia is also accused of adopting two "pro-Russian" laws - on foreign agents and banning LGBT propaganda (recognized as an extremist organization in Russia). The ruling Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012. In recent years, it has pursued a pragmatic foreign policy, trying to develop relations with both the West and Russia.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has made it clear that the republic is not stopping European integration, but is only abandoning "shameful and insulting blackmail, which has created an obstacle to the European integration of our country". This is how he commented on the decision to take off the agenda the topic of starting EU accession talks before 2028. Earlier, the European Commission told Izvestia that Brussels is ready to unfreeze the process of the country's accession to the European Union, but only if the political course is changed so that it "does not contradict the principles and conditions of EU membership."
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze
On December 1, on her first working day as head of Eurodiplomacy, Kaja Kallas said that the EU may impose sanctions against Georgia amid mass protests triggered by the decision to suspend European integration. "We need to discuss how to proceed because it is clear that the Georgian government does not respect the will of the people when it comes to the European future. And I think we should not allow that to happen," Callas emphasized.
European structures are trying to put serious pressure on the current Georgian leadership. Thus, on November 28, the European Parliament adopted a resolution in which it declared non-recognition of the parliamentary elections held in Georgia. EU Ambassador to Georgia Pavel Gerchinsky, in his turn, stated that Tbilisi's decision on European integration causes "extreme disappointment". "Georgian Dream" on the other hand emphasized that 90% of the association agreement will be implemented by 2028, accusing the diplomat of misinformation. Kobakhidze emphasized that the EU should not interfere in the internal affairs of the country. It is worth noting that it was under "Dream" that visa-free regime between the EU and Georgia was introduced in 2017, which is now threatened to be suspended in Brussels.
