Share Dynamics: Does Georgia expect the Ukrainian scenario?
Opposition protests erupted with renewed vigor in Tbilisi following the ruling Georgian Dream party's decision to postpone the issue of European integration until 2028. Dozens of security forces were injured in clashes with opposition supporters on the streets of the capital on the night of November 29. In the evening of the same day, demonstrators again gathered in front of the parliament building. At the same time, experts are confident that the opponents of the current government will not have enough strength to repeat the scenario of the Ukrainian Maidan. Izvestia reports on the potential of the opposition and the reaction of European officials to Tbilisi's actions.
The opposition continues protests in Tbilisi
Riots swept Georgia after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that he was putting the process of European integration on pause. The opposition disagrees with the authorities' decision to postpone until 2028 negotiations with Brussels on the country's accession to the EU.
While the previous protests were quite peaceful, on the night of November 29, riot police used water cannons and tear gas against protesters who burned garbage cans, tires, threw smoke bombs and other objectsat law enforcers , and tried to blind them with lasers. As a result, according to the Interior Ministry, 32 policemen were injured and 43 protesters were detained. On the evening of November 29, opposition supporters again protested in front of the parliament building.
According to Kobakhidze, the riots were the result of "pre-organized and planned violence by the radical opposition." Taking into account the situation in the capital of the republic, the section of interests of the Russian Federation at the Swiss Embassy in Georgia called on Russian citizens to refrain from staying in places of mass gathering of people.
What is happening in Tbilisi, of course, brings to mind the events of November 2013 in Kiev. At that time, the Ukrainian Government's decision to suspend preparations for the signing of an association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union was the occasion for large-scale and months-long protests by the opposition on the Maidan, which eventually led to the coup d'état in February 2014. Petre Mamradze, a former member of the Georgian parliament, believes, however, that Georgia is not in danger of repeating the Ukrainian scenario.
- The opposition does not have the strength for this and has no strategy. Their only strategy is to simply continue the protest. But the supporters of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who are characterized by the most pro-Western stance and who are now shouting that they are saving Georgia, are too few in number. On the youth side, they also have few supporters to organize serious protests. There is not and cannot be any more or less nationwide protest. And most importantly: there is no split in the ruling party and in the state structures. I believe that there will be no "color revolution" in Georgia," the political scientist stressed.
A protest rally, after the government suspended the EU application process until 2028, in front of the parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia, November 29, 2024
It should be noted that the law "On Transparency of Foreign Influence", which became one of the reasons for the cooling of relations between Tbilisi and Brussels, was adopted, according to Irakli Kobakhidze, as a response to the previous attempts of the Western opposition to overthrow the legitimate government - after the parliamentary elections in 2020 and during the protests in 2022.
The Georgian opposition, represented by four parliamentary parties, still failed to even nominate a single leader. Therefore, the country's president Salome Zurabishvili had a special role to play at the November 28 protest rally. Following Kobakhidze's statement, French citizen Zurabishvili accused the ruling Georgian Dream party of a constitutional coup, calling herself the only representative of legitimate power in the country. She said that she has already met with EU ambassadors and asked them to do everything necessary to hold new elections in Georgia.
Zurabishvili's real role is reduced only to the fact that she will be president for some time and can make some official statements in this status, said Nikolai Silaev, senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Issues at MGIMO.
- She has no supporters of her own, and the whole point is only her position. After the election of a new president, she will quietly leave for France. It is difficult for the opposition to choose its leader. The difference between what is happening in Georgia and the events in Ukraine is that the Ukrainian authorities in 2013 were shy to give clear orders to the police, while the current Georgian authorities are not shy," he said.
How the EU reacts to the situation in Georgia
EU Ambassador to Georgia Pavel Gerchinsky said that the Georgian authorities' disinterest in following the path of European integration is "extremely disappointing." In response, Georgian Dream accused the diplomat of misinformation. "In fact, the Georgian authorities have emphasized that they will carefully monitor the implementation of the Association Agreement and by 2028, 90% of the Association Agreement will be implemented," the party's communication department said in a statement. The Association Agreement between Georgia and the European Union, signed in the summer of 2014, offered a number of advantages in trade with the EU.
Kobakhidze promised that Georgia will take diplomatic measures if the EU ambassador does not change his rhetoric and stop interfering in the country's internal affairs. In addition, the Prime Minister again reproached the EU for blackmail, noting that what is happening around Georgia is directly related to the West's attempts to drag the country into the conflict in Ukraine back in 2022.
- They are continuing even now. We have no reason to believe that this blackmail will stop in the near future. It will continue until the end of the war in Ukraine. The EU was directly involved in the pre-election process in the country, interference in the internal affairs of Georgia is also continuing," the politician said.
For its part, Moscow believes that the Georgian leadership and society have been subjected to "cruel and insulting attacks" by the West. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin noted on November 29 that these attacks on Tbilisi are related to its desire to "protect traditional values and pursue a pragmatic policy that meets the national interests of the Georgian people".
The European Union, however, openly states that it is the laws on foreign agents and the ban on LGBT propaganda, adopted earlier this year, that remain the main obstacles on Georgia's path to the EU.
Official Brussels has not yet commented on the Georgian authorities' decision to put the issue of the country's EU membership on pause. According to Nikolay Silaev, European officials are still thinking about what answer to give in order not to lose face.
- Whether or not to join the EU is a voluntary matter. In this case Georgia has postponed this issue. The EU cannot force Georgia to change its mind. Especially since the initiative to suspend negotiations came from the EU," he added.
So far, the European Parliament on November 28 adopted a resolution calling on Brussels to impose sanctions on Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and high-ranking officials of the Georgian Dream. However, the resolution is not binding.
