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- Accumulative affect: early repayment of mortgages and loans fell by one and a half times
Accumulative affect: early repayment of mortgages and loans fell by one and a half times
This fall, Russians began to send one and a half times less money for early repayment of loans than a year earlier. This follows from the data of the United Credit Bureau (Izvestia has it). The market confirmed the trend and explained: it is not due to financial problems of citizens, but to the desire to make money on deposits with record high rates. Especially those who took out loans in previous years at lower interest rates are taking advantage of this. Whether the strategy can really be advantageous, taking into account the overpayment for the loan and whether such behavior is not a risk for banks - in the material "Izvestia".
Who benefits from early repayment of mortgages and loans
Russians in October sent to early repayment of mortgage, consumer and car loans 256 billion rubles - this is one and a half times less than last year's level in the same month (382 billion), according to the data of the United Credit Bureau (UCB), which have "Izvestia". Of this amount, slightly more than half - 132 billion rubles - was spent on full loan closings ahead of schedule, while the remainder was spent on partial closings.
In particular, in the mortgage segment, the full early repayment of loans for the purchase of an apartment sagged 1.7 times - to 43 billion rubles. Citizens spent Br54 billion on partial closing of housing loans ahead of schedule. A similar trend in the reduction of early repayments is observed in the sector of cash loans. In October, citizens paid banks to close such loans Br75 billion against Br118 billion in the same month a year earlier, according to the UCB data.
However, early repayment used to occupy an insignificant part of the total volume of lending. Over the year, its share in all types of borrowings fell from 1.2% to 0.7%.
Credit organizations confirmed the trend to Izvestia. This year the volume of early repayment of retail loans has decreased, the VTB press service noted.
- We record a reduction in early repayment of housing loans - said the director of retail products of the bank "Dom.RF" Daria Morozova. - This is due to the fact that about 80% of loans in the mortgage portfolio are issued at a rate of up to 9%, monthly payments on them are at a comfortable level.
In 2024, compared to last year, borrowers clearly prefer to make fewer early repayments both in the amount of funds deposited and in the number, stated in the bank "Zenith". They added that customers in general have become more frequent to make only the minimum recommended payment.
Why citizens have become less likely to repay loans early
The tendency to reduce early repayment of loans is associated with extra-high rates on deposits in the market, explained in VTB. According to the marketplace "Compare", banks offer citizens to put money on deposit at a maximum of 22-25% per annum. Indeed, one of the most likely reasons for the decline in early repayment of mortgages in 2024 was the growth of deposit rates, believes and marketing director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) Alexei Volkov.
According to the founder of the service "Kredchek" Elman Mehtiev, this trend began in the first quarter of this year and with the growth of the key rate gained momentum. In conditions of high yields on deposits, there is no economic sense in using free funds for early repayment, as interest on previously issued loans is significantly lower than today's deposit rates.
For example, in 2020, the key rate was 4.25-5.5%, and a mortgage could be taken out at 8%. Whereas some banks are now offering double-digit deposit rates.
Another reason is the disappearance of refinancing programs following the growth of the key rate, says Elman Mehdiyev. According to him, most banks know how to work only in the refinancing market, when rates go down and one mortgage loan replaces another.
What are the pros and cons of early closing of the loan
In the current situation is seen economically rational behavior of borrowers, said the director of risk management methodology and data analytics UCB Nikolai Filippov. He explained: early repayment of the loan is necessary to reduce the body of the debt, that is, the amount directly borrowed from the bank, and thus save on accrued interest. For large and long loans, such as mortgages, the gain from early repayment can be quite significant.
For example, if a person bought an apartment worth 10 million rubles at the current rates of about 20% (with a down payment of 2 million rubles), he will have to pay the bank more than 32 million rubles over 20 years. And if the term of the loan is reduced to 15 years, the amount will drop to 25 million.
As a result, if the rates on loans are much lower than on deposits, it makes sense to send funds to the deposit, at least for the period of favorable returns. However, if a person takes a loan now, it is more preferable to repay it faster if possible.
The longer the term of the loan, the higher the overpayment will be. Right now, however, people are having to stretch their loans to establish an acceptable monthly payment. If last year in the fall months the average loan term was 25-26 years, this year it has increased by a year and is 26-27 years, said Alexander Perevoznikov, head of the department for work with new buildings SaaS-platform TYMY Alexander Perevoznikov.
Borrowers are most profitable to close loans in the first years or months, depending on the term, because during this period the highest interest is accrued, and the body of the debt is repaid minimally, said Polina Gusyatnikova, senior managing partner of law firm PG Partners. According to her, the terms of early repayment of each credit organization may differ.
- Nevertheless, the bank has no right to prohibit partial or full early repayment, as well as to impose any penalties for this. Article 11 of the law "On Consumer Credit (Loan)" says that the borrower can repay part or the full amount of the loan ahead of schedule by notifying the lender at least 30 calendar days in advance, - said the expert. She added that in other cases the client can appeal to the court.
On the other hand, the reduction in the rate of early repayment of loans may be a sign of deterioration in the financial condition of borrowers, which usually precedes the real growth of delinquencies, warned the director of the rating agency "Expert RA" Yuri Belikov. For banks, in turn, the decline in early repayment rates relative to historical averages means some deterioration in the mobility of loan portfolios and may complicate liquidity management, he concluded.
The Bank of Russia expects the start of key rate cuts in the second half of 2025, said Elman Mehdiyev of Kredchek. If this happens, the trend will reverse only in a year - at the end of the IV quarter.
According to Nikolay Filippov from UCB, the low share of early repayment in the segment of long loans will remain, and in short loans - will begin to grow as portfolios are filled with fresh and, therefore, very expensive for borrowers loans. Because people will try to get rid of high-interest debts as soon as possible.
