At the price of seven: the average cost of a mortgage in Russia has passed 30%
Theaverage cost of a mortgage loan has passed the 30% mark for the top 10 market players, Izvestia found out. This is a reaction to the record growth of the key rate (up to 21%) in October and the expectation of further tightening of the Central Bank's policy in December. Now the overpayment for the whole term of a housing loan can be sevenfold, and the monthly payment for housing in large cities easily reaches 150-300 thousand rubles. Mortgage has become unaffordable for the majority of Russians, experts believe. Mortgages are still available only under preferential programs, but the disruptions have temporarily "frozen" the market. Whether this will lead to a decline in real estate prices in 2025 - in the material "Izvestia".
Average cost of mortgage in the largest banks
The full cost of a mortgage loan (FCP) on average reached 30.17%, follows from the data on the websites of the top 10 market participants. "Izvestia" studied them. The indicator includes all the costs that the borrower pays for the period of lending. In addition to the rate, it is usually also the cost of insurance and commissions - for service, maintenance of the borrower's accounts, issuance of cards, other additional services.
The average mortgage PSC increased by almost 1 p.p. after the increase in the key rate to 21% following the results of the meeting of the Central Bank on October 25. In addition, the market expects that in December it will be raised again.
Theminimum mortgage cost threshold increased by 1.3 p.p. over the month - up to 27.5%, according to the data on the banks' websites. Half of the market participants from the top 10 index starts from 28%. At the same time, the upper boundary of the PSC is now an average of 33.4%.
Thelevel of mortgage rates at 30% is essentially a barrier, stated economist Andrei Barkhota. According to him, over the past three years, the size of the monthly payment, taking into account the growth of the key and the rise in housing prices has increased about four times. Because of this, new real estate is unaffordable for borrowers with average incomes.
Overpayment on a mortgage loan of 10 million rubles (taking into account the down payment of 2 million) for a term of 25 years with a 30% interest rate will amount to 65 million rubles. That is, the final amount (debt plus interest), which will be paid by the borrower, will exceed the cost of housing by 7.5 times.
Because of these conditions banks faced a decline in the market indicators of mortgage issuance in October - in VTB they fell by a quarter compared to the previous month. The largest market player - Sber - last month recorded a decrease in the issuance of housing loans by 7.6%, said the press service of Domklika. That is, the market was under pressure even before the key rate hike on October 25.
Now the mortgage market is frozen by unsustainable rates on market programs, said Yuri Belikov, managing director of the rating agency Expert RA. The industry is supported only by preferential programs, which account for a significant part of issuance - but banks again faced with a shortage of limits on them, he added. At the same time, the prospects of support from the budget are not obvious, because it is difficult for the Ministry of Finance to subsidize preferential rates at the key rate of 21%.
Banks are now forced to actively increase interest rates on loans, as the cost of their funding is growing along with the key rate, explained Vitaly Kostyukevich, representative of Absolut Bank. According to him, financial organizations can't provide loans at a rate lower than the yields they provide on deposits.
At the same time, competition in the deposit market has intensified - earlier "Izvestia" reported that rates on deposits for more than a year reached 18-23%. In addition, some participants offer yields of up to 30% for small deposits.
How banks are tightening the issuance of mortgages
Because of the increase in the PSC will increase the amount of borrower income needed for loan approval, said Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
As a result, the inflow of applications for mortgage applications will be greatly reduced, said Andrei Barkhota. Monthly payments on loans to buy apartments in large cities can easily reach 150-300 thousand rubles, which is unacceptable for most of the population.
Theavailability of mortgages in 2024 has roughly halved against the backdrop of rising housing prices and the tightening of the Central Bank policy, said Vladimir Chernov. In addition, in most of the top 10 banks, the down payment has increased to at least half of the loan amount.
Market participants are likely to continue to reduce the risks of market mortgages by tightening the requirements for borrowers, added Vladimir Chernov. According to him, the size of the down payment is unlikely to grow, but banks may stop giving housing loans to customers with at least some debt load (for example, even if they have a consumer loan or credit card).
In addition, financial institutions may begin to actively impose additional services, without which the likelihood of approval of the mortgage will fall in times, added Vladimir Chernov.
At the same time, the real estate market will remain dependent on preferential mortgages, concluded Andrei Barkhota.
What will happen to housing prices in 2025?
As early as in the first quarter of 2025, the decline in prices in the secondary housing market may reach 4-8%, said Andrei Barkhota. Prices for new buildings at this time will stagnate.
However, this is not true for all sellers of ready-made real estate, added Vladimir Chernov. Many market participants will prefer not to reduce prices, and just temporarily refuse to sell apartments until the Central Bank rate will again fall to acceptable values.
Now Russians should postpone the purchase of ready-made housing for at least six months, because before this period, the Central Bank is very likely will not reduce the key rate, says analyst Alexei Krichevsky. According to him, the amount for the down payment at this time would be logical to put on a bank deposit with record yields.
Mortgage rates will continue to rise in the near future, if in December the Central Bank will once again raise the key rate, said Vladimir Chernov. According to him, it may increase to 23%, after which banks will again adjust the terms of the entire product line. Against this background, the market mortgage will become available not earlier than the end of 2025 - early 2026.
According to Yuri Belikov from Expert RA, the market will start to recover only when the key rate drops to 15%, which will happen not earlier than in a year and a half.
