Jump to retreat: EU ready to unfreeze Georgia's European integration process
Brussels is ready to unfreeze the process of Georgia's accession to the EU, the European Commission has told Izvestia. However, in order to do so, the union requires the country's government to change its political course, which "contradicts the principles and conditions of EU membership". This is primarily about the law on foreign agents and the ban on LGBT propaganda (extremist movement, banned in Russia). But while the EU is setting conditions, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that his country will give up negotiations on joining the union until 2028. The expert community rules out that the Transcaucasian state will make concessions and notes the "suicidal" nature of Brussels' demands to Tbilisi.
Georgia postponed negotiations on EU membership for several years
The negotiation process on Georgia's accession to the EU can be resumed under certain conditions.
- The EU recognizes the will of the overwhelming majority of Georgian citizens who want their country to belong to the European community of values and democracy. The EU is ready to unfreeze the process of Georgia's accession to the EU as soon as the government reverses the course taken to retreat from democracy and renounces actions that contradict the principles and conditions of EU membership," EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano told Izvestia.
Atthe same time, Brussels believes that the Georgian authorities should first start an "independent investigation" into the violations that took place during the October 26 elections, which were won by the ruling Georgian Dream party with 52.99% of the vote. According to Stano, only after these allegations of irregularities are examined will the EC decide on further steps.
Tbilisi, however, decided to put the issue of the country's membership in the European Union on pause, motivated by the fact that a number of politicians and bureaucrats behave unacceptably towards Georgia and do not take into account the interests of its people. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze directly accused Brussels of blackmail and announced the government's decision not to put the issue of opening negotiations with the EU on the agenda until the end of 2028. Until then, Georgia will also refuse all budget grants from the union. "From a technical point of view, it takes only one and a half to two years from opening negotiations to EU accession, and no one is planning EU enlargement until 2030. This shows how artificial and therefore extremely offensive is the blackmail that some European politicians and bureaucrats are conducting against the state of Georgia on the topic of opening negotiations," he emphasized.
Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze
Irakli Kobakhidze's statement looks quite logical against the background of Brussels' statements, especially taking into account unpredictability of European officials' reaction to the results of the upcoming December 14 presidential elections and potential victory of the ruling party's candidate Mikhail Kavelashvili, Vadim Mukhanov, Head of the Caucasus Sector of IMEMO RAS, noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
- The Georgian authorities have decided to distance themselves demonstratively from the European integration process in order to show the population that domestic political stability remains their priority," the expert said.
The EU questions the legitimacy of the Georgian authorities
Recall: all four opposition forces that passed to the Parliament of Georgia did not recognize the results of the elections, declared total falsification and did not appear at the first session on November 25. On the same day another protest action of opposition supporters was held in front of the parliament building.
Before the elections, Brussels warned that they would be a decisive test for Georgia's young democracy and would determine the country's chances of joining the bloc. Brussels has not yet issued its final verdict and is awaiting the conclusion of the EU technical mission that will travel to the republic to assess the results of the parliamentary elections. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights is also expected to give its opinion. It is indicative that the participants in the mission, according to the EU, will speak directly to the Georgian opposition and civil society.
However, on November 28, members of the European Parliament voted in favor of a resolution that calls on Georgia to hold a second vote. The text of the document says that the elections "were neither free nor fair, and represent yet another manifestation of the country's continuing slide away from democracy, for which the ruling Georgian Dream party bears full responsibility". Of course, there was also a call to impose sanctions on Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and high-ranking Georgian Dream officials.
It would be naive to expect any objective assessment from the EU authorities with such an approach. At the same time, Moscow believes that the opposition protests taking place in the country are preparations for another color revolution. Thus, on November 26, Alexander Bortnikov, director of the Russian Federal Security Service, said that the North Atlantic Alliance is attempting to implement its subversive policy in the post-Soviet space by expanding the activities of Western intelligence services, diplomatic agencies and non-governmental organizations and media controlled by them.
As political scientist Andrei Areshev noted in a conversation with Izvestia, the demands addressed to Tbilisi by the EC are yet another attempt to put pressure on Georgia for its refusal to follow the EU's anti-Russian policy.
- This pressure has been going on for almost three years and today the sides are on opposite positions. There was no such antagonism before the SWO, but after February 24, 2022, Georgia was demanded to radically tighten its anti-Russian course, which could have disastrous consequences for its economy and national security. Being a pragmatist, the Georgian Dream party did not abandon the pro-European course it had initially followed. But at the same time, its representatives are not suicidal, unlike, say, the Zelensky regime. This is the essence of the conflict between Brussels and Tbilisi. They are required to be suicidal, and they don't want to be. The result of this struggle will depend on the course of the SWO, among others," he said.
What the EU is not satisfied with in Georgia
Be that as it may, the approved head of government Irakli Kobakhidze on November 28 once again stated that Georgia is not giving up its ambitious goal of becoming a member of the EU by 2030. Georgia's new Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili spoke in the same vein, noting that the country will continue to move along the "irreversible path" of Euro-Atlantic integration.
It is worth recalling that the country' s aspiration to become a member of the EU and NATO is enshrined in Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution. Initially, the country's authorities planned to apply for EU membership in 2024, but did so in March 2022, a few days after Kiev submitted a similar application. Moldova joined them at that time. Georgia became an official candidate for EU membership in December 2023. The association agreement with the union has been in force since 2014, and since 2017 there has been a visa-free regime between the country and members of the community, except Ireland.
However, in the spring of 2024, relations between Brussels and the United States on the one hand and Tbilisi on the other began to deteriorate. The reason was the adoption of the law "On Transparency of Foreign Influence", in other words, the law on foreign agents. It obliges all non-governmental organizations in Georgia that receive a significant part of their funding from abroad to register. Irakli Kobakhidze explained at the time that the government wanted to achieve "transparency" in the activities of foreign entities, given that the pro-Western opposition has already made two attempts to overthrow the legitimate government - after the parliamentary elections in 2020 and during the protests in 2022.
The EU authorities expectedly criticized the law on banning LGBT propaganda adopted in September. It also banned the registration of same-sex marriages, adoption of minors by homosexual couples, and sex reassignment surgery.
The European Commission clarified to Izvestia that the rejection of these two laws will signify Georgia's return to the path of democracy and, accordingly, will open the way to EU membership again.
According to Andrei Areshev, rejection of the adopted laws would be tantamount to loss of face for the current government, considering "how many copies were broken" during their approval.
- Despite the shouting, but still quite few protests of the opposition, the majority of the Georgian society approved these laws. And today we see that the protest does not go beyond Tbilisi and the central streets of the capital. They do not manage to gather a significant number of supporters on the streets, otherwise they would have tried to realize the scenario of the Kiev Maidan long ago. Therefore, there is absolutely no reason for the ruling party to give in to the demands of the West and the opposition and cancel these laws," he said.
What prevents the expansion of the European Union
On November 27 , Shalva Papuashvili, who was re-elected as Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, said that the moment for joining the EU has not yet come: "We must prepare ourselves to become members of the European Union at the moment when we will win, not lose and not harm ourselves. If we become (EU members. - Ed.) today, we will destroy our entire economy because of the restrictions that will be applied to us at the same time".
The politician specified that if Georgia joins the EU, it will have to give up visa-free regime with many countries and free trade regime, which is in force, for example, with the CIS countries. It is indicative that on November 11, Shalva Papuashvili did not meet with the parliamentary delegation of the European Union, which arrived in the country on a working visit. He, in particular, pointed to the unfriendly rhetoric coming from the Union.
Finally, it is worth noting that the EU's enlargement process has been stalling for years. Thus, the last enlargement took place in 2013, when Croatia joined the community after 10 years of applying for membership. At the same time, for example, North Macedonia applied for membership in 2004 and has not yet become a member of the EU, although negotiations have been ongoing for more than 15 years. Montenegro has also been in dialog since 2012.
It is noteworthy that at the EU-Balkans Summit in mid-October 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that "all countries in the Balkans should become part of the European Union" because "the situation has changed and EU enlargement has again become the most important priority." It is important to note that it was the start of the SWO that prompted Brussels to reconsider the community's enlargement strategy. European leaders fear that in case of rejection of European integration, the candidate countries may fall into the zone of influence of Russia and China. In this regard, the example of Moldova is illustrative, where, according to the results of a recent referendum, almost half of the country's population opposed the EU accession course. However, a small margin of votes in favor of the supporters of membership in the union eventually gave the president-elect Maya Sandu an excuse to announce the continuation of the course of European integration and the decision to enshrine it in the country's constitution.
