Finexpert predicted a range of $80-85 thousand for bitcoin
On October 16, Bitcoin again tested the psychologically important mark of $ 80 thousand and briefly fell below it, but buyers quickly returned the price to the area of $ 82 thousand. It is too early to talk about the completion of the correction, the base scenario remains trading in the range of $ 80-85 thousand with high volatility. Kirill Komalenkov, Director of Strategic Communications at Bitbanker, told Izvestia about this.
"The main pressure factor remains the acceleration of inflation in the United States. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.7% year—on—year in September, while the producer price index (PPI) rose by 6.3% year-on-year and by 1.3% in a month, which was the largest monthly increase in more than four years," the expert explained.
According to him, such data supports expectations of maintaining tight monetary policy and limits demand for risky assets. At the same time, the macroeconomic background does not look unambiguously negative: on October 16, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh did not give a direct signal about a rate hike at the next meeting, and the market is still more likely to expect a pause in October.
Additional support for bitcoin is provided by the decline in yields on US government bonds and the weakening of the dollar: the yield on ten-year securities showed the strongest weekly decline in more than a year, and the dollar is heading for a weekly decline for the first time in five weeks.
Institutional demand remains unstable so far. After an influx of $175.7 million on October 13, American spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $261.4 million on October 14 and about $11.7 million more on October 15. Therefore, for a more sustainable recovery, it is important for the market to see the return of successive ETF inflows, rather than individual strong days.
From a technical point of view, the $80-81 thousand zone remains a key support. While the market is rapidly buying out withdrawals below $80,000, it is more reasonable to consider the current dynamics as a correction within a wide range. A return above $83-84 thousand will improve the short-term structure, and a consolidation above $85 thousand will reopen the way to $87-88 thousand and then to $90 thousand.
So, there are several positive factors for the resumption of growth now: a decline in the dollar and bond yields, the Fed's refusal to immediately raise rates, the return of stable ETF inflows, new purchases from corporate holders, a further reduction in regulatory uncertainty in the United States and a possible weakening of oil prices with de-escalation in the Middle East. An additional technical catalyst may be the breakdown of $ 84-85 thousand: with a large volume of short positions, it can trigger their closure and accelerate the upward movement.
If inflationary risks remain high, oil will continue to rise in price, and ETF outflows will increase, the loss of $ 80 thousand will increase the likelihood of movement to $ 78-79 thousand, and then to $ 75-77 thousand.
"For now, I would consider trading in the range of $ 80-85 thousand with high volatility to be the base scenario for the near future, but with the improvement of the external background and the return of institutional demand, bitcoin can quickly move back to testing $ 87-90 thousand," Komalenkov concluded.
Komalenkov noted on October 9 that bitcoin is trading around $82-83 thousand after declining from a local maximum above $87 thousand, and the current movement is more consistent with a correction within a wide range than a new downward trend. According to him, the pressure is exerted by outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, high government bond yields and a strong dollar, while the $80-82 thousand zone remains the key support. If held above it, an increase to $ 84-85 thousand is possible, then to $ 86.5 thousand, and if $ 80 thousand is lost, the correction may increase to $ 77-78 thousand.
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