The expert predicted a decline in bitcoin to $75 thousand before the Fed's decision

Bitcoin approached the middle of September under pressure after a decline of about 6% from the local maximum. The cryptocurrency has rolled back to around $77 thousand after rising above $82 thousand at the beginning of the month. The dynamics of the asset is influenced by expectations of the decision of the US Federal Reserve System and the changing interest of institutional investors. Kirill Komalenkov, Director of Strategic Communications at Bitbanker, told Izvestia about this on September 11.

According to the expert, the situation in the American economy remains the main factor of pressure on the crypto market. Manufacturing inflation in the United States rose by 0.4% in August over the month and 5.4% year-on-year, while oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. These factors have increased fears of a new inflationary impulse and increased the likelihood of a tougher Fed stance at the September 15-16 meeting.

Additional pressure on risky assets is exerted by rising yields on US bonds. The yield on ten-year government securities has approached 5%, which, combined with a strong dollar, traditionally reduces investors' interest in more volatile instruments.

Support from spot Bitcoin ETFs has also weakened. After inflows of $730.9 million on September 3, funds on September 8 and 9 recorded net outflows of $46.6 million and $120.2 million, respectively.

One bottom: is it worth buying Bitcoin, which has started to grow

And how is the collapse of the cryptocurrency in early 2026 radically different from the previous ones?

"An important benchmark for the market will be the new statistics on inflation in the United States. Softer data may reduce expectations of a tightening of the Fed's policy and bring back demand for bitcoin. In this case, the cryptocurrency may recover first to the levels of $ 79-80 thousand. If the positive scenario remains, the next benchmark will be consolidation above $82-83 thousand," the expert said.

If the inflation figures turn out to be stronger than expected, bitcoin may continue to decline to the region of $ 75-76 thousand. From a technical point of view, this zone is now a key support. Its loss may pave the way for a decline to $ 71-72 thousand.

To return to steady growth, bitcoin needs not only to overcome the $80,000 mark, but also to gain a foothold above the $82-83 thousand range. After that, the market will be able to consider a move to $ 85-86 thousand, and then to the level of $ 90 thousand.

According to the expert, additional support for the cryptocurrency may be provided by the softer rhetoric of the Fed, the resumption of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the further formation of clear rules for regulating crypto assets. A decrease in oil prices and bond yields may also be a positive factor, which will reduce pressure on risky assets.

Komalenkov considers the increased volatility of bitcoin in the range of $75-82 thousand to be the base scenario before the Fed's decision. According to him, reaching above this level will require an improvement in the macroeconomic background and the return of the interest of large investors, while consolidation below $ 75 thousand will increase the risk of a deeper correction.

The bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate rose to $80,000 on August 24 for the first time since May of this year. Later, on August 25, the cost of bitcoin exceeded $81 thousand for the first time since May 15.