The financier predicted the movement of the dollar to 90 rubles by mid-September

Until the beginning of next week, the dollar is likely to trade in the range of 85-90 rubles, the euro — 98-104 rubles, and the yuan — 12.50–13.30 rubles. Andrey Loboda, a member of the RASO and the expert council of the Association of Forex Dealers on the development of the over-the-counter financial market, told Izvestia on September 7.

The Central Bank of Russia has set official exchange rates for September 5: dollar — 86.6 rubles, euro — 100.6 rubles, yuan — 12.9 rubles. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, on September 7, the yuan exchange rate was near the 12.8 ruble mark.

"The dollar, euro and yuan ended the first trading week of September with mixed dynamics against the ruble against the background of conflicting signals, where the short-term technical strengthening of the national currency faced powerful fundamental pressure. The dollar exchange rate dropped to 85.80 rubles due to the announcement of a sharp reduction in the volume of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule. At the same time, the strong performance of the US employment market and the likelihood of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy create additional risks for the ruble," the financier said.

Under these conditions, Loboda noted, the Russian currency may continue to move sideways, and by the beginning of the second half of September, the dollar may rise to 89.50–90 rubles. The euro maintains an upward trend in over-the-counter trading and approached the resistance level of 101 rubles. According to the expert, its breakdown may open the way to the level of 103.85 rubles. The yuan also continues to strengthen against the Russian currency.

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The Chinese currency has exceeded 12.80 rubles after rising by 27% since the end of May. According to Loboda, at the beginning of the second decade of September, the yuan may move towards the resistance zone of 13.13–13.35 rubles. According to him, such dynamics indicates continued demand for the Asian currency.

At the same time, the foreign exchange market may be affected by inflationary risks. Among the pressure factors, the expert highlighted logistical difficulties and an imbalance between supply and demand. Against this background, the Central Bank faces the task of simultaneously maintaining economic activity and restraining price growth. A rate cut can support the economy, but excessive monetary policy easing may increase inflationary pressures and affect the ruble exchange rate.

According to Loboda, by the September 11 meeting, the regulator still has the opportunity to keep the key rate at the current level or reduce it by 0.25 percentage points to 13.75%.

"Today, inflation in Russia is 6.3% in annual terms and is very effectively controlled against the background of macroeconomic and political stability. In my opinion, the key rate could have been expressed in single digits long ago," the expert noted.

Yelena Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Board of National Savings Bank JSC, said on May 26 that sharp fluctuations in exchange rates in recent years have changed the behavior of private investors, as attempts to choose the right moment to buy dollars or euros are increasingly unsuccessful. The expert noted that the exchange rates are simultaneously influenced by oil prices, the policy of the Central Bank, sanctions and the expectations of the population.