What should an investor keep an eye on this week
In the coming week, the Russian market will remain in a zone of high uncertainty. The Moscow Exchange index is stuck in a narrow range and reacts sensitively to any geopolitical news, but a more serious trigger is needed for a steady upward or downward movement. Support is provided by the weakening of the ruble and oil prices, while pressure is exerted by inflation expectations. Investors will focus on corporate reports for the first half of the year, fresh inflation data that could influence the Central Bank's key rate decision on September 11, and high-profile statements made at the Eastern Economic Forum.
On Monday, Aeroflot, Polyus, Promomed, Seligdar, Glorax and Arenadata will reveal their financial results for the first half of the year. Genetiko will submit reports according to Russian standards. In addition, the Board of Directors of B2B-RTS will discuss interim dividends. The Bank of Russia will also publish the first draft of the Main Directions of Monetary Policy.
On September 1, the Moscow Stock Exchange will reveal the trading volume for August, and S&P Global will present the business activity Index (PMI) for the Russian manufacturing sector for the same period.
On Wednesday, Rosstat will publish data on employment and retail sales for July, as well as a weekly estimate of inflation. On August 2, Rosstat's report on the Socio-Economic Situation of Russia and the Central Bank's review of the Banking Sector for the second quarter will be released.
On September 3, Henderson will hold an Investor Day based on the results of the second quarter, and S&P Global will publish the business activity index for the Russian service sector for August.
On Friday, Rusal will hold an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on dividends for the first half of the year.
The RGBI index, according to the forecast of Alexey Kovalev, head of the Debt markets analysis department at Finam, will be in the range of 113-114 points. The bond market does not show pronounced dynamics against the background of inflation concerns and remains prone to decline.
The Moscow Exchange index, according to the analysis of the First Management Company, will continue to consolidate in a wide range of 2050-2200 points, but in the absence of significant geopolitical triggers.
The dollar, according to Alexander Dudnikov, an analyst at Cifra Broker, will trade in the range of 85-87 rubles, the euro — 98-101, and the yuan - 12.6–13 rubles.
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