Securities can't stand it: the number of bond defaults will double in 2026
Investors are increasingly left without bond payments: by the end of 2026, companies may delay or skip them 48 times - twice as many as in 2025, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Already in the first half of the year, 21 defaults were recorded, compared to 24 for the whole of last year. Lowering the key rate has not helped risky issuers much so far: new securities are still issued at 16-21%, and sometimes they have to borrow even more expensive. There is a new test of strength ahead — by the end of the year, businesses need to repay bonds worth about 2.4 trillion rubles, twice as much as last year's volume. Who can't cope with debts and how an investor can avoid losing money in pursuit of a high coupon — in the Izvestia article.
Why are there more defaults?
In the first half of 2026, companies committed technical defaults on bonds 21 times, meaning they delayed payments to investors. Some of these cases turned into full-fledged defaults: the issuers did not transfer the money even after the grace period, which in Russia is 10 business days. According to forecasts of experts interviewed by Izvestia, by the end of the year, the number of delays and non-payments may double the result of 2025, when they were recorded 24 times.
Among the most notable examples of this year are the defaults of the companies Agrodom, SibAvtoTrans, Sobi-Leasing and Royal Capital. They did not fulfill their obligations to investors even after the grace period ended. One of the largest Russian developers, the Airplane Group, also made a technical default. Some issuers have had problems repeatedly: EuroTrans, for example, has already delayed payments four times, and the total amount of its overdue obligations has exceeded 200 million rubles. The editors sent them inquiries.
The main reason for the increase in non—payments is the accumulated effect of high interest rates, explained Nikolay Leonenkov, Director of Corporate Finance at the Rikom-Trust investment company. In 2023-2024, businesses actively attracted money, including through short-term bonds and floating coupon securities, hoping for an early reduction in the cost of loans. Now these issues need to be repaid, but it is still expensive to refinance old debts.
Even the reduction of the key interest rate to 14% did not make the money available to all borrowers, emphasized Nikolay Leonenkov. Issuers of the second and third echelons pay an additional risk premium, so the cost of new loans for them reaches 18-25%. According to the expert, 40-45 defaults can occur on the market in a year. Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, expects a comparable 35-45 cases.
At the same time, the situation of issuers is worsened by rising costs and declining profits, said economist Andrei Barkhota. Higher salaries, tariffs, and logistics costs reduce margins, and delays on the part of counterparties increase cash gaps. As a result, a significant portion of the proceeds is spent on servicing previous loans, and there are fewer funds left to repay the bonds.
According to Andrey Barkhota's forecast, 22-32 more defaults may occur in the second half of the year, and there will be more full-fledged non-payments than technical delays. Thus, the annual rate can reach 43-53 cases. Digit Broker analysts also allow for its doubling.
A similar scenario was presented by financial advisor and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to his estimates, the number of delays and non-payments per year may approach 50 cases.
Small companies and issuers of high-yield bonds are in the most vulnerable position, which find it particularly difficult to reduce their interest burden, said Maria Romantsova, Managing Director for Debt Capital Markets at Finam. Additional risks are created by tax surcharges, account blockages and the growth of overdue accounts receivable.
In the second half of the year, the pressure will increase with a large volume of repayments, warned Nikolai Leonenkov. The business will have to return about 2.4 trillion rubles to bondholders, twice as much as a year earlier. At the same time, non-payments traditionally peak in autumn and winter, when issuers approach the largest payments.
Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank.
Which companies can default
Developers, leasing companies, retail, logistics and trucking are at increased risk: the high debt burden in these industries is combined with a decrease in demand and rising costs, experts say.
Small transport and logistics companies suffer from expensive loans and tax changes, while developers suffer from significant debts and dependence on housing sales, explained Egor Zinoviev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. The most dangerous situation is when large payments on obligations are combined with insufficient cash flow from core activities.
High risks also remain in agriculture, among gas station operators and in other capital-intensive industries, said Anton Prokudin, Head of the Bond Department at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company. According to him, a deterioration in the performance of such enterprises can quickly lead to a shortage of funds for settlements with bondholders.
The probability of defaults is increased by a reduction in profits, an increase in mutual non-payments and the exhaustion of internal business reserves, added Evelina Gomonko, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics of the RUDN University. She named retail, leasing and construction as particularly vulnerable.
Investors should keep an eye on whether the issuer's debt is growing faster than its profit, whether the operating cash flow is decreasing, as well as lawsuits and reporting delays, warned Denis Astafyev from SharesPro. Another alarming signal is the increase in tax arrears and the blocking of accounts by the decision of the Federal Tax Service, said Tatiana Klyueva, Associate Director of the Corporate Ratings Department at Expert RA.
How not to lose money on bonds
When choosing bonds, an investor should look not so much at the coupon as at the company's ability to earn enough to service its debt, said Denis Astafyev of SharesPro. He advises studying the schedule of upcoming offers and repayments, as well as checking whether the issuer has open credit lines and other sources of financing.
A yield of 20-25% per annum may itself indicate an increased risk, Denis Astafyev warned. Before buying such a paper, it is important to understand why the company is forced to raise money so expensively.
Nikolay Leonenkov from Rikom-Trust suggested considering OFZs, money market instruments and bonds of large companies with stable businesses as a reliable basis for the portfolio. Alexey Rodin from Rodin.Capital classified the largest banks and diversified corporations as such issuers.
It is important to evaluate not only the current performance of the company, but also its ability to survive the upcoming large payments, said Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Delays in the publication of financial statements and the silence of management on the eve of repayment can be alarming signals. The expert advises investing only a small part of the capital in high-yield securities, distributing it between different issuers.
Now saving capital is more important than the maximum coupon, experts agree. They recommend carefully analyzing borrowers, not concentrating investments in one paper, and keeping the bulk of the portfolio in reliable instruments.
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