Create Monroe all over the world: why Trump started a new chapter of the trade conflict with Canada

The US-Canada trade conflict has taken on a new dimension. On August 27, US President Donald Trump announced the renaming of Lake Ontario to America, and the day before he imposed a national security emergency to protect the country's energy system and banned the use of foreign electrical equipment, allegedly carrying risks of sabotage and cyber attacks. He explained that the decision is designed to neutralize the "abusive threat" due to the possible cessation of imports of Canadian electricity. A week earlier, the politicians of both countries exchanged threats. In particular, Ontario Governor Doug Ford said that after the failure of negotiations on the US-Canadian trade agreement and the intentions of the White House to increase import duties on a number of goods, he is considering limiting or completely stopping exports of electricity to the United States, as well as supplies of critical minerals as a retaliatory measure. Ford stressed that he is using "all available tools" in the trade war. Where disagreements arose between Washington and Ottawa and what they will lead to is in the Izvestia article.

Globalism and hegemony

The contradictions between Washington and Ottawa have been brewing for a long time, and Trump has only brought them to the surface. The existing trade agreements — NAFTA in 1994 and the USMCA in 2018 (in Canada it is called the euphonious abbreviation CUSMA) - were considered by the 47th President of the United States (and with good reason) to be a globalist instrument of suppression of the American economy. Moreover, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the idea of a North American Union, a confederate state of the USA - Canada and Mexico with a single financial system and currency, the Amero, was seriously discussed. The idea, which the conservatives called the death of American sovereignty, eventually died out, but the unfavorable conditions for the United States in trade with Canada largely remained. The White House believes that there is discrimination against a number of American goods on the Canadian market.

Photo: Global Look Press/White House/Flickr.com

On the other hand, since the beginning of the 21st century, Canada has become the main supplier of crude oil to the United States, having more than quadrupled its volume since 2002. This is largely why Washington has consistently recorded a trade deficit with its northern neighbor over the past two decades.

At the same time, Canadian electricity exports grew exponentially, mainly to border states (Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Vermont).

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At the same time, ideologically, Canada and the United States have been moving in opposite directions in recent years, with a certain mutual influence. Today, American conservative analysts call the "Great White North" the new center of the British Empire, a haven for globalists, and quite rightly include the country's government in the same political class as the European bureaucracy.

Photo: Global Look Press/Al Drago - Pool via CNP/Consolidated News Photos

The Trump administration, which is betting on the "economy of the future" and a technological breakthrough, is extremely interested in access to the resources necessary for this, so it is looking for appropriate opportunities around the world — from Australia and Ukraine to Greenland, located 18 km from Canada. Critical vulnerability and dependence on a political competitor must therefore be eliminated.

Chinese motif

A separate side of the conflict is the "Chinese threat" emanating through Canada. In fact, a new stage of the confrontation was launched by the White House in January of this year, after the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to Beijing. Following the talks, he announced the expansion of the trade partnership between the two countries. Trump reacted instantly. "China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their business, social structure and general way of life," he wrote on Truth Social. And then he added: "If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately face a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods entering the United States."

The reason for concern was the prospect of Canada becoming a transit point through which Chinese goods would enter the United States, bypassing tariffs and duties.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Anna Ratkoglo

Carney, in turn, countered: "With our economy under threat from abroad, Canadians have made the choice to focus on what we can control," he said. "We can't control the actions of other countries, but we can be our own best customers."

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Bend the 49th parallel

However, in Washington, they found a sore point in their neighbor — separatism. In May, the Prime Minister of Canada's richest province of Alberta, Daniel Smith, announced a referendum on secession from Canada. It should be clarified that the issue put to the vote does not imply the possibility of immediate secession, but gives the Government the authority to launch an appropriate mechanism. The referendum will be held on October 16, and the chances of the initiative's success do not look zero, but they are not obvious either.

The importance of this event for the United States lies in the fact that up to 85% of Canadian crude oil is supplied from Alberta.

Photo: Global Look Press/LARRY MACDOUGAL/STRLMD

According to the British press, by January of this year, representatives of the US State Department had met at least three times with leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project movement, who spoke in favor of secession.

Earlier, the US president tried to enter another, much more famous project, independent Quebec, but got the opposite result from what he was looking for. The leader of the separatist Party of Quebec, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, said he would not hold a referendum on independence while Trump remains in power. French-Canadians have no desire to play along with the White House, which has caused enormous damage to the provincial economy with new tariffs.

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Not everyone will be satisfied with the solution

Nevertheless, another round of tariff wars has dealt a very sensitive blow to Canada. The ruling Liberal Party, which is already under serious pressure from the conservatives, will find it difficult to maintain a balance between ostentatious rigidity and a seriously complicated economic situation. So a lot will depend on when Trump is ready to symbolically step back, as he always does during negotiations. At the same time, potential concessions should not harm Ottawa's relations with third countries, mainly from Asia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Reinhard Marscha/imageBROKER.com

It is important to understand that political, economic and cultural communications between countries are extremely extensive: from IT giant Shopify and beer producer Molson Coors to Ryan Gosling, Justin Bieber and the NHL. In one form or another, a solution is likely to be found. Whether it will suit Canada or whether Ottawa will simply try to "wait out" the 2028 presidential election is a big question.