How global warming is changing the world. Analysis: part 1
Global climate change is no longer an exclusively environmental problem: it is increasingly affecting prices, production, energy and the well-being of the population. Water scarcity, extreme heat and declining yields are already creating a chain of interrelated consequences — from rising prices to increased mortality, from restructuring the labor market to the global redistribution of economic and natural resources. Izvestia examines this problem in a series of materials: in the first part, which areas are critically affected by global warming, provoking serious consequences and risks that trigger the trigger mechanism and are reflected in other sectors. The second is about how the situation in energy, healthcare and the labor market is changing, changing people's lives, and the third is about what this will lead to in the near or distant future.
Awareness of the problem
• Global climate change manifests itself in different ways in different regions of the world, and its consequences go far beyond the natural environment and affect almost all aspects of modern life. At the same time, the scientific discussion around the scale and consequences of the process continues, although the problem itself has been in the field of attention of scientists for more than a decade: on August 28, 1981, a study by James Hansen and his colleagues was published, which showed the link between rising carbon dioxide concentrations and climate change and predicted future consequences.
• At the same time, the impact of global climate change on individual sectors cannot be assessed separately: changes in one area are almost inevitably transmitted to others. International policy has gradually been built around this relationship: an important milestone was the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, which brought countries together as part of a common goal to limit climate risks and adapt to their consequences.
• For example, a prolonged period of abnormal heat can increase electricity consumption due to the operation of air conditioners, while at the same time creating additional stress on the power system. This can lead to higher electricity prices and higher costs for enterprises, and then to higher prices for goods and services. Another example is a change in the precipitation regime, which can reduce the availability of water for cities and industry, force the authorities to allocate more funds to infrastructure and at the same time increase business and household spending.
• The state of energy affects the cost of industrial production, company costs affect prices, and this in turn affects household income and consumption, and subsequently government decisions and monetary policy. As a result, climate change forms a complex chain of interrelated effects, where the natural factor is gradually turning into an economic and social factor, and the consequences for one sector can exacerbate problems in another.
Water
• The global water crisis is rapidly worsening: about 2 billion people no longer have access to safe drinking water, and by 2030, up to 5 billion may face problems with quality water supply and sanitation. At the same time, the available volume of fresh water is decreasing from the current approximately 750 cubic meters per person to 450 cubic meters. m by 2050. Against this background, the oceans continue to warm up: marine heat waves affect a significant part of European waters, and in the Mediterranean Sea the water temperature in some periods exceeded the norm by 6 ° C. The main reason for the acceleration of these processes is greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which increase warming, droughts and extreme weather events.
• Agriculture, industry, energy, and cities need water, and the main problem is not only reducing supplies, but also reducing the reliability of water supply. Warming increases evaporation, dries up soils and changes river flow, and precipitation becomes more uneven: prolonged droughts are replaced by extreme rainfall, which causes flooding and pollution of springs.
• Agriculture and industry are particularly vulnerable. Water scarcity creates competition between the population, farmers, businesses, and the energy sector: reduced irrigation reduces yields and raises food prices, while water shortages for production can shut down businesses and disrupt supply chains. Particularly sensitive are water—intensive industries such as metallurgy, chemical industry, microelectronics and mining of raw materials.
• Energy also depends on water: it is needed by hydroelectric power plants and for cooling nuclear power plants and thermal power plants. Drought reduces the production of hydropower and can limit the operation of thermal and nuclear power plants, while heat simultaneously increases the demand for electricity. There is a water—energy connection: Desalination and reuse of water require energy, and water scarcity increases the cost of production, electricity, and food, and can increase inflation.
• Another problem is rising sea levels: heating water leads to its expansion, and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica increases the volume of the ocean. The main reason for the intensification of these processes is human activity and greenhouse gas emissions. Rising sea levels threaten coastal territories and island States, exacerbate floods and storm surges, accelerate coastal erosion and lead to salinization of soils and freshwater.
• Cities are facing increasing demand for water and the need for expensive infrastructure such as reservoirs, purification, desalination and reuse. Excessive groundwater abstraction can lead to depletion, salinization and subsidence of the soil, and floods can damage infrastructure and pollute water. States have to increase spending on adaptation and support for affected industries, while simultaneously risking lower tax revenues and an increased budget deficit.
• In the long term, water becomes a factor of economic and national security. Therefore, the competitiveness of the regions will largely depend on reliable access to fresh water: with its physical scarcity, some types of production become unviable.
Agriculture and food
• About 16% of the world's agricultural lands are already facing loss of fertility, and by 2050, climate change may affect up to 10% of all arable areas. Erosion and water scarcity accelerate soil depletion, posing a threat to food security: up to 80 million people may be at risk of starvation. At the same time, agriculture, together with deforestation to expand arable land, generates up to 31% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Climate change is increasingly affecting agriculture: droughts, extreme heat, floods and the spread of new diseases are reducing production and worsening the condition of agricultural land. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations notes that weather shocks can disrupt the food sector and cause food prices to rise. Regions where agriculture is highly dependent on natural conditions are particularly vulnerable.
• The crop is affected by several factors at the same time. High temperatures accelerate moisture loss, and prolonged droughts leave plants without the necessary amount of water. Heavy rains and hail damage crops and wash away fertile soil. Warmer winters create favorable conditions for pests and pathogens. An additional problem is a decrease in the nutritional value of grain with an increase in carbon dioxide concentration and a shortage of minerals.
• Climate change is already affecting the cost of specific products. Among the most sensitive products are coffee, cocoa, olive oil, wheat, citrus fruits, berries and rice. The drought in Vietnam reduces the production of robusta coffee, while unfavorable weather in Brazil affects Arabica, in Ivory Coast and Ghana, heat and lack of moisture threaten cocoa plantations, and in Spain and Italy temperatures above 40 ° C and lack of water complicate the cultivation of olives (we wrote in detail about sudden changes in prices for goods). here). European heat waves and unstable weather in the United States are reducing grain stocks, while frosts and droughts are limiting citrus supplies. Floods and the El Nino phenomenon are also forcing rice-exporting countries, including India, to reduce external supplies.
• The decline in production has a direct impact on consumers: the shortage of raw materials increases the cost of bread, meat, milk and other products. Poor countries are at the greatest risk, as it is more difficult for them to quickly rebuild the agricultural sector. At the same time, climate change can simultaneously worsen the availability of food, its quality and the stability of the global market. Therefore, the adaptation of agriculture becomes a necessary part of the protection of food security.
One of the main directions is considered to be climate-optimized agriculture. Among the solutions are the creation of drought— and salt-resistant varieties of wheat, rice and corn, drip irrigation with a potential water saving of 50-70%, as well as the use of satellites and drones to monitor the condition of fields and targeted fertilization. Vertical farms allow you to grow vegetables and herbs indoors, almost regardless of the weather. According to experts, a set of adaptation measures can compensate for up to 80% of potential crop losses.
• Equally important is the protection of the soil itself and the restructuring of economic processes. Farmers are also diversifying their crops by choosing more sustainable crops, using digital insurance based on satellite monitoring of drought, and relocating individual plantations to cool northern or mountainous areas. Such measures can simultaneously reduce climate risks and maintain the sustainability of food chains.
Macroeconomics and global GDP
• Global warming has the potential to reduce global GDP by about 20% by 2050 relative to a climate-change-free scenario, with annual losses already estimated at trillions of dollars: extreme weather destroys infrastructure, reduces labor efficiency, impacts agriculture, and pushes up the cost of food and energy. Income per person is decreasing most noticeably in hot regions, while the direction of investment is changing — funds are shifting from carbon industries to green energy and adaptation technologies.
• To limit emissions and curb temperature growth, it is necessary to allocate about 1% of global GDP annually, since without such measures, the cumulative economic losses from climate disasters can greatly exceed the costs of green transformation.
• Climate change can worsen the state of the economy for a long time. Floods, droughts, fires, hurricanes, and extreme heat reduce production and destroy roads, businesses, power grids, and other equipment. At the same time, the consequences do not end after the disaster: the destroyed capital reduces the future opportunities of the economy. For example, the construction of a new railway increases capital, while the repair of a destroyed one simply returns it to its previous state.
• In addition, the condition of agricultural lands is deteriorating, water shortages are occurring and infrastructure is being damaged. Therefore, the usual economic downturn can be completely overcome, and climate damage can permanently reduce the future capabilities of the economy. The IMF and the ECB consider climate change to be an important factor in long-term economic growth. According to IMF estimates, with severe warming, global GDP per capita losses could exceed 7% by 2100.
• Climate risks can also reduce investments: companies are forced to spend money on air conditioning, insurance, backup energy sources, water, and building protection. For example, half of the company's budget may be spent on protecting the company from the heat. In addition, climate disasters can simultaneously reduce production and raise prices. For example, a drought reduces the harvest, which makes food more expensive. Thus, a climate shock can cause inflation even with weak economic growth.
• States also face problems, because after the disaster, tax revenues decrease due to falling production, while costs rise due to reconstruction, public assistance, and infrastructure protection. This is especially dangerous for poor countries because it is more difficult for them to obtain financing. Climate problems can also worsen the trade balance: for example, a poor harvest reduces exports and increases imports of products.
• The main problem is a possible permanent slowdown in economic growth. The difference between an economy growing by 2.5% and 2% per year seems small, but in 30 years the economy will increase to about 210% with 2.5% growth, and only to 181% with 2%. Therefore, climate change can lead to slower growth, high inflation, higher government spending, and increased debt. At the same time, much depends on how effectively countries will adapt to climate change and whether they will be able to finance the necessary measures.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
