The political crisis in Ukraine has exposed the reliance on Fedorov. And here's why
A struggle is unfolding in Ukraine between President Vladimir Zelensky and former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov. Before approving the new head of the department, Fedorov said that Ukraine needed to hold presidential elections, and a new anti-corruption case was opened against members of Zelensky's team. In this political crisis, the active participation of European partners is visible, aimed at ensuring that the real power in the country is given to the henchmen in the EU. How Europe became a participant in internal Ukrainian disputes is in the Izvestia article.
"Cardboard Maidan"
• The political crisis that Ukraine plunged into more than a month ago began with the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko. President Volodymyr Zelensky justified his decision by the need to change the political strategy and personnel changes. The departure of Sviridenko, who held the post for a little less than a year, and her replacement by the director of Naftogaz, Sergey Koretsky, were received calmly by the Ukrainian society. However, her dismissal also meant the resignation of all members of the Cabinet. The composition of the government, determined by Zelensky after that, remained largely unchanged, with one notable exception — Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov did not receive a new appointment.
• Fedorov's dismissal caused a wave of discontent. Since his appointment to this post in January 2026, the 35-year-old official has gained popularity among the population of Ukraine. He was credited with expanding drone production, reforming procurement in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), concluding new contracts for the supply of Western weapons, and actively cooperating with Elon Musk, the owner of Starlink, a satellite communications company. After his resignation, Fedorov loudly criticized the Ukrainian authorities and announced a conflict with the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, which only increased the support of the former minister.
• Fedorov's departure led to the "cardboard Maidan," a series of protests in major cities that often featured posters made from plain cardboard. The discontent of the population led Zelensky to compromise and replace Syrsky with another popular military commander, Mikhail Drapaty, and offered Fedorov alternative positions in the government. Zelensky did not disperse the protests or return the official to the post of minister, which he himself demanded, having found himself in a political impasse. The fact is that Fedorov's dismissal was widely covered and criticized in the Western media, broadcasting the position of the Ukrainian partners. A crackdown on the protests would be the use of force against Europe. And the return of the post to Fedorov meant a huge political concession and loss of positions.
Pressure from Fedorov and NABU
• For a month, uncertainty remained in Ukraine about who would eventually take over the post of defense minister. Zelensky initially proposed Interior Minister Igor Klimenko for this role. However, when the Verkhovna Rada approved the composition of the government in the last days before the summer holidays, Klimenko resigned from his post. After that, Zelensky appointed Yevhen Khmaru, acting chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). To take up the post, he needed, firstly, to leave military service, since only a civilian can be the Minister of Defense, and secondly, to enlist the support of the Verkhovna Rada.
• The Parliament of Ukraine returned to work only on August 18. On this day, Zelensky officially submitted a proposal on the appointment of Khmara as head of the Ministry of Defense to the next plenary session. But a few hours before the vote, two political events occurred at once, which brought the crisis over the ministerial portfolio to a new level. First, Fedorov published a video message in which he called for elections to be held in the country amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Now the elections of the president and the Verkhovna Rada have been postponed indefinitely, allegedly due to the current martial law, and the powers of Zelensky and the current convocation have formally expired. Fedorov called for the development of a mechanism in which the military, Ukrainian refugees abroad and residents of front-line regions could vote in order to organize a plebiscite and renew the supreme power in the country.
• In addition to the fact that Fedorov raised an exciting topic for Ukraine, before the vote on Khmara's candidacy, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) announced a new criminal case involving politicians from the highest echelons of government. One of the defendants turned out to be Irina Mudraya, the deputy head of the president's office, who is responsible for legal issues. Another suspect was Verkhovna Rada deputy Vadim Stolar, a major developer, a former member of the Opposition Platform — For Life faction, and the leader of the Restoration of Ukraine parliamentary group loyal to Zelensky. The third person involved was former Rada deputy Maxim Mikitas.
• NABU accuses Mudnaya of trying to take control of the state—owned Sense Bank in order to raise funds to pay the bail of another high-profile corruption scandal, former Minister of Energy and Justice Herman Galushchenko. Mudra was tasked with collecting 150 million hryvnias ($3.3 million), bypassing financial monitoring procedures. Shortly after conducting searches at her place, Zelensky fired her from the office of the president.
The European trail against Zelensky
• It is difficult to consider both Fedorov's video message and the criminal case against members of Zelensky's team in any other way than the latest attempts to prevent Khmara's appointment to the post of defense minister. As a result, deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, including those opposed to Zelensky, approved the former head of the SBU, but these attacks on the current leadership of Ukraine, led by the president, are creating a completely new, confrontational atmosphere in the country's politics.
• It can already be stated that Zelensky has a full-fledged competitor in the dispute for power. More recently, Fedorov was a technocrat official with no power ambitions, an ordinary member of the government, whose career is determined by the office of the president. But now he has become a political figure who clearly articulates his intentions. If Fedorov just wanted to regain his ministerial portfolio, the announcement of the election would only hinder him, because in this way he sets the entire office of the president against himself.
But he deliberately raised a topic that Zelensky is trying to avoid due to his falling rating. For several years now, public opinion polls in Ukraine have shown that Zelensky is by no means guaranteed victory in the new presidential elections, and therefore they have to be postponed. Fedorov enjoys broad support, as the "cardboard Maidan" has already shown. Like the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhnoy, he managed to convert military service into political capital, which he wants to use with all his might, but cannot because of the resistance from Bankovaya Street.
• In the unfolding confrontation, it is also interesting that Fedorov not only relies on mass support, but also has a strong rear in the face of European partners. Even in the first days after his resignation, he received atypical support for a dismissed official from officials in the European Union. European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius said that Fedorov's departure "raises questions," and Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto offered him the post of adviser in his team. This level of solidarity clearly goes beyond the usual framework and could not have been achieved without strong ties with Brussels.
• The fact that NABU secretly sided with Fedorov and joined his campaign to prevent Khmara only confirms the European bet on the former defense minister. NABU is a European law enforcement agency operating under the jurisdiction of Ukraine. This is an instrument of the European Union's influence on the leadership of Ukraine, which operates in parallel with diplomacy, financing and other official channels of influence on Kiev. In conditions when elections are not being held and there are no legal ways to carry out the transit of power, only external forces can influence Zelensky.
• The history of Zelensky's interaction with NABU shows that the bureau is the last Ukrainian institution beyond the control of the president and entering into a confrontation with him. It regularly initiates cases involving the president's closest associates, and he himself has already tried to reassign the department to himself (we discussed here and here in more detail how he tried to adopt the relevant law and how he was forced to back down). But this move provoked a negative reaction from society and European allies, just as they were outraged by Fedorov's resignation. Zelensky was defeated in that round of confrontation, and this showed his opponents where the weak point of the Ukrainian leader is.
• Since at the moment Fedorov has no way left to achieve a return to the ministerial chair, he can only play the election card with the support of the masses and European forces, whose branch in Ukraine is NABU. The fact that he really enjoys broad support in Brussels suggests that confidence in Zelensky is falling. It is beneficial for Europe that Ukraine continues to effectively carry out military operations, does not allow systemic corruption and does not allow an authoritarian transition. On each of these three points, Zelensky ceases to satisfy the interests of Western partners. Therefore, a successor is being sought in his place, who, even if he does not take the presidency right now, will serve as an irritant capable of destroying the Ukrainian consensus on the irremovability of the country's leadership.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
