It will end somewhere soon: what is the state of the US oil reserves
Recently released data on the state of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) The United States has revived discussions about the potential dangers of the energy crisis and the States' preparedness for it. Experts note that with the reduction of the SPR, American oil companies are actively increasing their reserves. The reason for this situation and the threats it poses are described in the Izvestia article.
Reserves are shrinking
At the end of the first week of August, the US Department of Energy reported a reduction in the actual volume of the strategic oil reserve to 298.7 million barrels. At the same time, this meant overcoming the psychologically important 300 million mark, a decrease of 12.7 million compared to July and a record low since 1983.
For understanding: the nominal storage capacity is 714 million barrels, and according to the Energy Policy and Energy Conservation Act (EPCA), the reserve cannot be lower than 252.4 million barrels. However, the President of the United States has the authority to overcome the ban by a separate executive order — to eliminate a crisis disruption of energy supply or to fulfill international obligations.
What is SPR and why does it age?
The United States created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in 1975, at the height of the oil crisis, to protect against supply disruptions. The key infrastructure facilities of the project were designed for 25 years. By 2026, they had already turned over 40.
According to a report by the U.S. Court of Auditors in May this year, repairs are not keeping up with schedule due to new seizures, which only adds to the list of problems associated with the failure of various units. The document states that from 70 to 100 million barrels (of the 298.7 million available on August 7) cannot be simply taken away for technical reasons. This is also evidenced by the analysis conducted by the Rapidan Energy agency.
CNBC, in its review, concludes that there is enough oil in the SPR to carry out only one seizure.
At the same time, the Strategic Oil Reserve plays not only a protective role, but also a stabilizing one. The size of its volumes indicates to market players the ability of the system to respond to crises (for example, to the current one), which means that it largely determines their behavior. For example, this was the case at the very beginning of the US-Israeli military operation, when, in order to stabilize prices, a group of oil-producing states agreed on an additional "intervention" of 400 million barrels of resources, 170 of which accounted for the SPR.
A counter trend
In this sense, extremely interesting data was provided by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. According to the report, commercial oil reserves in the country increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million.
At the same time, American imports increased significantly (+7.3 million barrels per day), while exports went down sharply, reaching their lowest levels since November last year.
At the same time, due to the shortage of supply, high refining load (up to 96%), risks and a sharp increase in related costs (logistics, insurance), physical oil currently costs more than paper oil. That is, the product delivered today is more expensive than itself, which will be delivered in the future (this is called backwardation).
Thus, while the state's strategic reserves are dangerously declining, the reserves of American oil companies are growing. Experts point out that the accumulation of real rather than paper assets by large players may indicate preparations for serious crisis events.
Autumn of Changes
Some analysts draw attention to the risks associated with the growing tension in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait due to the activity of the Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) and the potential danger of blocking the route through the Red Sea. Others see this as a longer-term calculation: if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not change, after a while there will simply be nothing to stabilize the market, and real oil (and not a paper guarantee of its possession in the future) will become as valuable an asset as gold or silver.
In other words, a crisis situation is developing, and they are preparing for it, just as central banks around the world have been doing for several years, actively buying up precious metals. It is safe to include some of the White House's foreign policy decisions in the same context, from Venezuelan oil to Ukrainian, Greenlandic, Australian and Armenian rare earths. By the way, in June 2026, gold surpassed US Treasury securities for the first time in history and became the first in the list of reserve assets.
In addition, the threat from Japan is looming over the market, where the central bank is making joint efforts with the US Treasury Department to prevent the collapse of the yen and, consequently, the US bond market (Japan is their largest holder). High oil prices only increase the pressure on the system.
At the same time, experts agree that it is unlikely to be possible to "return" the situation to the previous one. The era of cheap money is coming to an end, and the countries where the public debt situation is most difficult, such as Japan, France and Spain, will suffer the most from this. The yields on UK, US and German debt securities are also approaching record levels. As a result, the choice remains between the bad and the terrible: saving the financial system at the cost of a falling economy or increasing liquidity and a sharp rise in inflation as a result. The oil crisis will push this process in several directions at once.
Of course, the negative development of both the state of the US strategic oil reserve and the US national debt may change if the truce with Iran one day transforms into an agreement that unblocks the Strait of Hormuz, and there will be no escalation in the Gulf of Aden region. However, even regardless of the temporary backlash needed to stabilize, this is still a long way off. And the margin of safety by the beginning of autumn has been pretty eroded. At the same time, the irrevocably changing conditions of the global economy open up still closed opportunities for a number of States.
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